Member Info for Stupmy

Not sure if it's been posted here yet, but apparently Whizz is pulling back on flights from Gatwick due to high operating costs and poor time slots impacting financial performance. They'll switch some to Luton. Is that related to EZJ weakness?

Nice move. Thanks for the article. Do I sense a change in sentiment? I'm a firm believer that the media can change sentiment, in this case it's driven by Ocado making a positive move, but often it's larger players with influence over the press that attempt to modify sentiment. Fingers crossed this works and gives us a boost.

Yes, I read your posts. Interesting times. OCDO's valuation appears to be based now on it's UK retail potential rather than it's international tech potential. Frustrating that it's taking so long to pull in customers.

Obviously that's great news, but we need OCDO to perform better on an international stage. The UK retail business is only part of the company as a whole and the opportunities are clearly much small when considered in a UK centric fashion, compared to an international one.

Josey, in your example, the net short could be simply a short (no long position on the equities) hedged by par cost bond paying 11%. Have I got that right? I.e. nett short is just a short.

For me it covers some of my weaknesses/bias without question. I've used TA a lot and find it useful, often simply to prevent myself taking trades that are 'a bit iffy', so sometimes simply to trade less and wait more. I quite liked him and it helped to re-inforce some of what i know that I need to learn. I've seen a lot of expert traders (verified ones) talking on the stop hunting etc. Some say it's nonsense, some make the point that algos are created by programmers, they require liquidity to move markets and are designed to seek out that liquidity and there seek to move price to where PI stop losses are most frequently placed. To me that seems likely to be true.

For me today, in my learning process. 5 trades, 5 losses. I have a 6th on.

Bots, I agree with good companies, avoid AIM, low valuations and even tolerating drawdowns on them. I'm successful at that and it's stress free even when there's a good amount of money at risk. This short term stuff, I'm using tiny amounts and the stress is high. I'll be able to build a tolerance to it or not I guess.

A guy in the UK taught me a trend following system that he used so successfully, his broker sent him a xmas hamper from Harrods as a congratulations. I tried to do it and entered 8 times (125 pound risk with a stop to limit it there), lost 8 times, lost conviction and the 9th entry (that I didn't make) took off and continued into a trend his system would have worked on. That's the bit I have to get used to. Ignoring the pain!

SD, that's pretty well what's working for me. Buying low even adding, but jiggling around to reduce my entry level averages and just leave it for a good while. That suits me as I have many other distractions. But short term trading clearly does work for some (not for me at the moment) so I'm trying to use a rules based approach, ignore everything I think I know and just follow the process. 4 trades this morning, 4 losses. It's very stressful, but I think if I can learn to deal with the stress and the losses, then the size of the winners will cover the losses. We'll see.. I'm not enjoying it for the moment and it's going to take time to get comfortable with it

That makes a lot of sense to me Josey, thanks.

We've previously commented on trading/picking levels etc and some of you have laughed at me. For the record, at the moment the bigger stuff I do, which is largely hands off, is still working for me. I'm currently trying again to learn how to day trade. That's never been particularly successful for me and now I'm trying again, I'm having to do my best to ignore all of my internal bias on what I think comes next. I'm trainging on small bets and finding it very stressful. I'm having to use stops and I'm having to accept losses. In this video, the interview covers algorithms and the belief that we can second guess what comes next. This plays into the views of those who laugh at price predictions etc. Just to provide balance and technical info from someone who knows a thing or two.

It's long, but very worthwhile if you're interested in this area. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wY9RRwCcmdY

Stanley, the passenger tax is thought set to rise by 15%. Some estimates are that 20% of the cost of a plane ticket will now be tax. Reeves wants her share and is looking to take 2.5 billion a year from the airlines.

I saw your previous past Casa, makes sense to me.

Also agree that there's a lot of nonsense spoken about shorts/squeezes etc on these bb's. Shamefull in my view.

Anyone see this mornings RNS? 2026 bonds covered in full. Good interest rate in fact at 3.875%. I guess that somehow related to the low interest environment on issuance in 2021. I guess it would cost more to sell debt today.

But did they understand that the CFCs were better suited to densely populated cities vs sprawling metropolises (if that's actually the case)?

I've been thinking more about that. The spread out nature of some US cities (LA for example as an extreme) are maybe not ideal for CFCs and rapid delivery. I hadn't considered it that much previously, but the UK favours next day delivery (and our big cities are densely populated) and France favours pickup at store. I think the US favours fast delivery at the moment? Which makes sprawling cities difficult for CFC's. Is that roughly right?

Makes sense to me.

I was trying to weigh up short term how well todays rise was likely to hold up.

Thanks

Poker, how does that vote impact Ocado? Obviously it's been a big bounce today, but I'd like to better understand why Ocado would be bought up on the basis of an expectation that the US will re-open?

Focussed on other things Mike. Your figures seem reasonable wrt to the upside potential. I have no stress over HBR, my holding is likely to look after itself. I wouldn't discount the downside risk though. I currently have spare cash to add, should we see downside.

Volume looks fine to me, not the highest we've seen, but we saw up to 2.9 million shares change hands on oct 31st around the 220 price and we've already seen 680 thousand in the fist 2 h of today.

Artemis now above the threshold for disclosure at 3.25% of the issued shares (3.815 million shares). Sounds like a vote of confidence from them.