Member Info for Stupmy

I'm part of that 'shadow-Demand' PC, watching closely and putting funds aside for when/if the SP meets certain conditions.

France has the advantage of getting most of it's electricity from nuclear. I'm guessing the UK is in a worse position and that's not helped at all by Millibands green fanaticism.

Gary, I suspect that you're right. The price is currently in what might be considered a 'demand zone' and there has not been much evidence that there is any demand. There was some buying to lift it from 413 to 429 (I thought it might hit 431ish but it didn't). That level met sellers. POO still rising and the conflict looks to be getting more entrenched, I think tomorrow will indeed be another down day. If it isn't it finds a bid, I suspect in the near future we'll come off to around 370 or lower anyway. I'm not rushing in where angels fear to tread. PIs often think you have to be in fast or you'll miss your chance (Book early or you won't get a place as Billy Butlins used to say). Not sure there's a rush here.

Why do post two times sollers? Also, you've only just been suggesting people they should buy as 420 is likely the bottom. Now you're calling 400? You're starting to seem a bit weird.

I know Trump is president of the US, I believe he's president of Venezuela, is he going for a hat trick with Iran or will he settle for Supreme leader and ruin his stats?

Exactly Mike, was thinking about that with POO on the up at the moment. It will happen, it always does!

Exactly, but the bottom of a gap does not necessarily act as support. Closure of the straights must be supportive and the longer that lasts the more supportive it will be.

My divi estimate was based on my entry of around 228. Should have stated that. It'll be less for those buying at todays SP. I've stated previously that I think the high divident makes investors happier to hold, lowering it by that much might provide a bigger incentive to traders and have the SP swinging about a bit more (let's hope it's not swinging about like a bog door with the plague in town).

I have the divi at around 5.3% (happy to be corrected) compared to around 10% previously. I was expecting a drop in divi (although judging from the discussion on this bb many were not), but the size of that drop is bigger than I'd expected. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but personally, I'd have dropped a lot on that spike a week ago if I'd thought the divi was coming off by that much. Not sure where the UT trade left us on the close, but I think 252 or below looks very likely now.

It's to avoid getting involved. I have a tendency to be reactive, I get angry or whatever and find myself involved in something that wastes everyone's time. Nowadays. I have a quick look at the record and filter. Also I filter very quickly when I start getting personal attacks. It is very rare that these people say anything that is interesting on a bb. It's some kind of narcissistic problem I think. I don't want any part of it.

Take a look back at James posts and do the sensible thing and filter him. There is nothing of any value there. Just spats.

PC that is the weird thing isn't it. The fear when a SP is falling, the idea that 'there must be a good reason for this' etc which is sometimes true. But I think it's one of the biggest reasons that retail investors miss out. That feeling is likely to be stronger over the next 18mths as the media talks up the risk of a large correction. The human nature side of things actually provides opportunities if you can control your emotions when the arrive.

I just looked that up Sek, I can see the massive rise. On the simple chart (tradingeconomics.com) I'm looking at, there's not a lot of evidence to suggest it's peaked). You'd have to imagine that the HBR SP will respond if prices stay high or move higher.

Worth considering brent price was at a resistance (place where sellers are likely around 80.5-81.6. Similarly HBR price was likely to find sellers around 272 and a little higher. POO has moved through it's resistance and it wouldn't be hard to imagine HBR SP to move up also once those sellers are cleared. I haven't followed it myself, but others are saying gas prices are up a lot (what time frame?) which is also positive for HBR which has a good gas component to it's revenue streams.

I do the same, I hope on one or two 'topping out' (not that that's easy to know) and sell some/all with a view to putting it into other good companies that seem to be 'bottoming out' (again not easy to know when). I'm not currently exposed to EZJ, but am very interested at some point below 370ish. If Savage is right about 300, that'll either hurt me if I'm early, or provide a better entry if I'm patient. Only time will tell, but good luck.

Right, I misunderstood. So I guess that that's based on his macro take on things (filtered so I'm not seeing any more of that). Sorry, I thought it was your own take.

Affmead, you're implying that there's a rationale behind your idea of SP hitting 300. Any chance you could describe your reasons for believing that. It seems likely that you made this prediction before this new middle crisis so I guess it would be better to explain the original rationale, rather than bring the Iran/US/Israel conflict into the argument?

I'm genuinely interested as I didn't have 300 as likely?

That's brave, I struggle with that. Was tempted to sell 30% on the spike and buy back if the gap closed, but realised that if I sold I would not rebuy and overall, I think we could move up to 3 pounds or so. Good luck with your entry.

I have to say that the dividend makes it easier for me to hold, as doing nothing gives me a good divi each year and over a reassonable time period there might also be good capital gains. Withou the divi, it becomes less important to me as a core holding over a longer term. I'd imagine a good divi from a management team that probably do want to keep SH's on board, could help stabilise the price over time.

That didn't age well a7174

They've also tried once in Cyprus and succeeded once at a UK military installation. First attempt happend a few hours after my son flew out of there and the target was a small number of kilometers from he was training. Scary stuff, they're also firing in what seems to be a willy nilly fashion into Oman, Bahrain and UAE. Maybe that's related to US/Syrian assets I don't know. From the news it seems disorganised on their part, but I guess they have a strategy.

I meant to write 78 not 72, it's rising again now at 79.4. If the straights remain closed I imagine we'll see those gains maintained or even increased. Those higher figures would be great for the SP.