Member Info for Stupmy

I guess the fare increases are inevitable, but I assume that they will ensure that the company remains profitable (if there is not a big fall in demand). Rising prices, however across the spectrum due to the increased fuel costs, could reduce demand and eat away at our profit. Having reduced access to fuel would be even worse so let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Yes, that's a good point.

Been some sensible buying by Rausing 1.8 million shares Mar 13th and 910 thousand on Mar 11th at around the two pound mark. Also Adam Warby 65 thousand shares on Feb 26 at around 218p. That's at odds with the increasing short positions over the same time period. Clearly these directors are viewing these levels as an attractive risk reward. Certainly suggests to me that they are no expecting any surprises to the down side in the near future.

Mail is running it's headline of "Last shipment of jet fuel nears UK as nation faces shortage in days.............

That fits with other bits and pieces I've been reading/listening too about fuel shipments already on tankers when the SoH was closed. It would seem that most of that fuel will be delivered very soon so that supply will rapidly dwindle over coming days/weeks. I guess it would take 3 to 4 weeks to get the shipments back to their previous equilibrium levels also, so even a rapid close to the hostilities and reopening of the SoH wouldn't change much for the next 3-4 weeks. The problems are baked in.

What's a 'debt repairer'?

Https://screenrec.com/share/ujRIHzbrwq

On the bright side, at least Trump has turned the US economy around. Wonder what Pam Bondi will have to say about this when she's questioned about something tricky but unrelated.

Not that I'm sure what on earth I'm looking at (probably June contracts), but something seems to be feeding through to price on the ground. almost 107 a barrel at the moment.

Thanks, always learning!

Thanks V. so the IG market price is a futures price (currently rising and at 106 dollars a barrel. I need to lookin into that further (but not tonight!).

So the difference between what I'm looking at and what grinleyboy is looking at is that I have current spot prices and he's looking at 3mth futures?

I have Brent at 103.8

Not sure he's lying (although he's not shy about doing that). I get the impression from the bipolar views being touted by the news channels that there are more than one faction to be dealt with in negotiations with Iran. Trump is dealing with one of those factions, but a more hardline (military faction?) is in disagreement. Just guessin here, but I'd imagine that until there is some sort of united front from Iran, the SoH will remain closed.

Apologies, here's the link to the price spike/volume

https://screenrec.com/share/TJSslvPQMG

I find these rapid spikes fascinating. Anyone know how they happen or even if they are real. Here the price spiked to 382 on a volume that was not out of the ordinary. It immediately reverted to it's baseline around 284. Wouldn't it be marvellous to believe that it's a sign from the future that the SP is going to bolt to the upside. On that note, in my experience, having a big seller bleeding shares into the market would normally suppress the SP and often lead to big falls over time. We have a big seller (again) in BASF, but they are selling off market (and thus theoretically taking the discount hit themselves) into an environment of high O&G prices (that you'd imagine should translate at some point into a rise in SP). I don't get why, if BASF in this case are taking the discount hit off market and the buyer is getting an 8% discount bargain, why we as ordinary SH's also get to suffer BASF's discount? Anyone have an explanation?

27.03.2026_11.19.49_REC

Thanks for that meoryou, how does it translate into the POO? We've had a rapid rise to a rough plateau of about 100 dollars a barrel, then it's stabilised, but the supply disruption is still there even if there is enough currently getting to it's destinations (no rationing at the pumps for example). There must be a 'phase 2' to the price hike? Do you have a feel as to when we might see that (ignoring the impact of Trump's tweets; so just the underlying reality rather than the rapid perception changes driving the 'hot money').

Am I roughly right that there's about 2-3 weeks of global oil supply in tankers on the sea in transit at anyone time? Once that's used, there are strategic reserves that can be used to manage oil supply over a period of a few more weeks? After that, some oil moved via pipelines and unaffected areas of supply can prevent a complete collapse in supply but might lead to state rationing and prioritisation of supply for state purposes. At some point we'll struggle to get petrol at the pumps (here in France the price is up over 2 euros a litre at the moment, but we're not rationed). At what point does the Brent price start to increase from here? At the moment it's holding steady around 100 dollars a barrel, but the longer this conflict blocks the SoH, surely the higher the POO will go? Anyone have any real knowledge of this area?

I guess the reason that Brent recovered so fast is the realisation that that means another 10 days of the SoH being blocked.

Thanks, I figured he'd missed another good opportunity to say nothing.

Here we go, gold and silver up, DAX, US500, NASDAQ flying. FTSE up and oil crashed. What the f has he tweeted now. He's good for entertainment value for sure. Wonder who was in 15 minutes before whatever he's announced now. Not sure my heart can take much more of this.