Member Info for Stupmy

I find you're 260 area of interest, but it makes little sense to me at the moment. If it does come into play, then so does 242 and we can find other lower levels if that happens.

But, backwardation is changine, the forward curve is rising a little. Might not seem like much now, but I'll take any form of optimism (not 'any',) because at the current time, the SP vs the petrochemical market is to my mind very disconected. Something's wrong and I'm hoping it resolves to the upside (for the SP).

I'm wondering if it's just that HBR/ENQ have a large amount of investors trapped in at low SP's that either need to get out (need access to that capital) or emotionally want to, as they've been sat on large losses for so long. Might simply be consolidation (transfer of shares from sellers to buyers). Consolidation could last a while with so many holding after a long period of opportunity cost and sitting on paper losses, but if I'm right and that clears, the SP of both companies should rise a fair bit from here. Could of course be total tosh, but one has to try to rationalise the moribund SP.

It'll removed OPEC's ability to try to force them to reduce output to maintain/rise prices. With 15% of OPEC's production, then once the SoH issue is behind us, UAE selling as much as they can to monetise their reserves before Oil is not longer used for energy production, will bring the POO globally down.

Surely the SP has to react now? I get up every morning believing the same thing though.

Nick, don't pay too much attention to buys vs sells here or elsewhere. The data is unreliable to say the least. At the end of the day, every transaction has a buyer and a seller, the SP movement tells you who was in control during any period and the total volume gives you a good idea of market participation. I.e. high volume = lots of interest.

"The extreme amount of this getting snapped up will keep the SP from crashing IMHO"

Not sure I understand that comment, volume was very high when it was sold down, there have been a few high volume days to give short term bounces, but volume (I'm assuming you're comment relates to volume) is not a lot higher than it's normal level and it's tending downwards.

You've been right before while I've largely sat on my hands. Can't help thinking that we have more gas in the tank at the moment though.

Looks like the price really wants to go up. Fingers crossed we'll get over that 21p level.

Looks very strong. Could get a positive read across to EZJ.

That's an argument about price vs value!

I favour the selling pressure of you options Mike, but not necessarily new placings. Look at ENQ, they've not had placings and their SP is in the same boat as ours. In theory the disparity between paper prices and physical oil should reduce (hopefully with paper rising a lot) and maybe that would provide a trigger the SP to rise

Price of oil/gas has been consistently high for 2 mths now and a lot of the extra money is going straight to our bottom line. I can't fathom at all why the price isn't responding more positively

Funny, my short closed for 24p or so on a limit and I've now bought some shares.

Same happens to me at times Thumper, what a shame we can never be certain about what happens next eh. I'm struggling not to buy here, but I should reallly wait for evidence that the price is turning.

There are TA reasons for thinking 348-350 could bring in buyers and it has for the moment. There's a previous low around 338ish also that could bring in buyers if we drift a little lower. The cost of fuel and risk of disruptions to supply are a serious headwind

As luck would have it, at the moment we seem to be benefitting from a positive read across. Doesn't seem to happen often at the moment!! Also pretty modest (in line with most changes in our SP).

I'm getting a lot of 'spam' trying to encourage me to reach out and claim against my car loans (I have no car loans; cash only). So, there are people, genuine or not, out there trying to drum up numbers.

We shouldn't romaron. Again, my point. But we are behaving in a similar fashion. HBR should outperform us based on lack of EPL, geographic diversification and level of gas production and better basic production costs. But it isn't doing it, the two distinct companies with distinct profiles are showing a moribund SP reaction to the current tailwinds. Both, for somewhat different reasons, should be moving further ahead. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'm half expecting a rapid rerate that will take many be surprise and leave some sitting on sidelines, sitting on the sidelines.

Personally, I'm struggling to find the right response to this problem. I could sell everything now, take the profit and sit on the beach for the rest of the year, but my deeper belief is that our SP (I have both HBR and ENQ) does not yet reflect reality.

No-one can see into the future and that's where the difficulty is, bird in the hand or flock of the bu gg ers on the near horizon.

Basher, that kind of narrative might be exactly what's needed to bring the price down. I think we'll see 388 or lower.

I wish it would change faster KO, I seem to have a patience problem. I'm worried, having missed so many money making opportunities here this year, that I'll start 'trading' exactly at the time the price moves up in a sustained fashion.

I'm really struggling with frustration here.