Member Info for Stupmy

With Saudi largely locked in and UAE still included in the OPEC figures (and locked in) that's not really a surprise

Ducati, that sounds as if the SoH remains closed for another 30 days after this agreement is signed (if it is).

Sadly, I think it's about to get cheaper, 18p or below looks likely. HBR looks set for 261 or lower. That's purely my interpretation of the their charts. Makes no fundamental sense to me. I personally believe that the current increased oil and gass prices have not been priced in and the market now seems to be pricing in much lower O&G prices over the next 6mths. This has been a very difficult period. I'm normally quite active in trading, but have been so convinced that the current situation has not been priced in, that I've been waiting for a SP surge and have done almost nothing.

Also, that's quite old news compared to the sudden change in oil and knock on effects to oil/airline SPs? Something happened at 10:45 (or was released at 10:45). Stopping the idea of escorting ships was announced well before that (unless that was just speculation).

How can that reduce oil price? Surely that means no ships pass through the straight, so a reduced hope of alleviating the blockade anytime soon?

Airlines up, US futures up, FTSE up, oil down? Something must have been said?

Does the cost of buying these blocks increase with the PoO and G? Is it like M&A where the higher the prices of the commodities and what's made from them, the higher the price you have to pay to play?

I'm not expert on logistics. I guess the rest of Europe will also be squeezed. For me it's very much worth being aware of this supply shock and from a personal point of view, I suspect it shouldn't be taken trivially. We could very well see further SP weakness. Although the Whizz data was encouraging.

That looks quick and clean. I'd have half imagined that it was good news and could lift the SP, alas it has not come to bear

Goldman suggest the UK could be particularly sensitive to continued jet fuel supply restrictions: Goldman Sachs said: 'the UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer. As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures. Britain now has only four operating refineries - Fawley in Hampshire, Stanlow in Cheshire, Humber in Lincolnshire and Pembroke in wales, after the closure of Grangemouth in Scotland in April 2025 and Lindsey in Lincolnshire last August.

"Having low debt and high cash can also indicate a moribund management and I think there is too much emphasis on debt. If you've got wind-in-your-sails you can make more money providing the O&G price holds"

Are you not encapsulating the problem in what you say? We have the debt, but the wind in our sails comes from a 'black swan' event (alpha particle strike in Trump's hypothalamus). And now with POO etc so much higher, we have no wind in our sails from M&A activity. I'm assuming M&A is now more complicated. Having said that HBR nailed the timing and no-one could accuse that management team of being moribund and it's still not shifted the SP.

Obviously I think we will move higher, but we're not using our debt to grow particularly, are expecting to substantially pay it down with the high prices of oil (moving us towards a low debt 'moribund' management?).

It's a thought Frac, but I don't believe it, HBR SP is doing the same thing, but has a significantly lower risk exposure to UK politics. It's something else, but I don't know what. Maybe the forward price curves on the backwardation (rising a little), maybe selling by holders who were previously deep under water. Maybe a timing issue, people thinking that POO will fall fast on any form of resolution to the blockades (many experts now suggest that there will be a significant delay to 'normalistion of POO/gas etc). I keep wondering whether the ceiling (300p on HBR, 21.5 or so on ENQ) is like a coiling spring and whether we'll see a rapid rise if we can overcome whatever is causing the resistance at these levels.

Goes without saying that I certainly hope so!

300 here and 21/21.5 on ENQ seem like solid walls. SP's just can't seem to get past those levels. It's very frustrating with what appear to be such strong tail winds.

Capacity and passenger numbers up, load factor a little down. Looks ok, I wondered whether there'd be some softening in demand, but that's not obvious. Increased capacity seems to be being largely filled with bums on seats

Posted on Enq by Frac. Enq/Ezj like heads and tails on the same coin at this juncture.

https://x.com/clim8resistance/status/2046925130945753361

Also Drone attack on UAE oil plant, not sure how much damage.

We're in the 3rd month of the blockade(s), all floating oil/gas/kerosene has been delivered. None is coming out of the SoH, national reserves are being depleted. How long will those reserves tide us over with a 20-30% drop in supply? I can't help wondering if this supply reduction will soon force the price of oil/lng/kerosene etc above it's recent highs. Are we just consolidating wrt prices (oil/gas/prodcuts/SP) before a significant push to the upside (in the absence of a resolution to the blockade(s)?

Some of you guys probably have some relatively specific knowledge on this?

Was wondering what was behind the rise.

I'm not so optimistic, I think that without the strait opening quickly, there could be far reaching systemic problems

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21vSztkMx4g

Will you put some meat on the bones there Yasawa?

In my view the supply shock on fuel isn't going away soon, making a big rise on Tuesday very unlikely