Member Info for Stupmy

"Just to the newbies - targets mean diddly squat - they're motivated in an attempt to either appease or construct an entry point depending on the politics.

I've seen target of £13 when the share topped at £5 - just be aware! GLA"

Be aware also that analysts cover a set number of stocks. They have targets to meet (theoretically independent of trading desks) for bull and bear cases on stocks. They get their bonuses by meeting their targets. It doesn't necessarily represent reality.

"If no deal will be all back down again"

"Short squeeze over, now lets see where the real market is."

Interesting comments, shorts have come off a bit on this rise, that often happens without a significant impact on SP, but maybe the buying contributed to this rise. I think that the 'hot money' (traders/leveraged traders) is in and out like the hokey cokey and that's great, some profit, some lose but at least they try. I think, that is significantly affecting the SP. I also think that the rise is too early, I think we'll see a significant hit to EZJ's bottom line (25m a month from their last update). For the hot money that's already forgotten (or ignored). I personally think we'll soon see 365 or below and will probably revisit the 350 area (maybe even lower).

Check out my posting history rather than criticise me. I'm happy looking at upside and downside. The risks to upside and downside change with time and circumstance. I try to track them, in order to profit from swings (largely in companies that are out of favour or a little 'backwater' but with good volume).

At the current time the price action on HBR has favoured a move to 261 or below. That's been achieved. I am confused, accepted. I have not shorted and will not short under the current circumstances. Without really good evidence of buyers arriving, our next move is more likely down than up and 241 or below becomes increasingly likely. If you want an upside spin, it is this: the price is currently towards or at the base of a relatively long lasting consolidation (beginning of March, i.e. start of the war) until now. The longer the consolidation, the bigger the likely move when price breaks out. If it breaks to the upside, I have 442 or higher as likely. However, if it breaks to the downside, I have 241, 221, 185 and even 150-160 as possible. For the downside break, in current circumstances it might take simply Iran or Trump (or better both) to state publicly they have agreed to immediately open the SoH. Most on here, me included think that is unlikely (if we're right and this continues for a few more months) then the upside becomes clearly favoured. If we're wrong, then even relatively innocuous announcements could have our SP down to 241/221 pretty quickly (probably short lived).

These are just thoughts, but I invest and trade on my thoughts and I'm successful.

VoR, my thoughts as well. For me "much to agree with there".

For me, I'm pinning my colours to that mast and at the moment it's making me stressed. I'm normally pretty relaxed about my positions and happy to hold over a certain length of time (that timeline has been stretched with HBR and ENQ). But each time I fail to unload at the top of the consolidation price range, I'm getting more stressed about this as common sense (I think what you posted was exactly that) is not leading to the hoped for change in price. I have been so close to selling on the repeated highs and could have repeatedly made money (and have not). I'm leaning into the narratives being discussed here particularly by Stevo/Hunbah/Sekforde (but I also appreciate the inputs from others) and Buffet's idea about the markets transferring money from the impatient to the patient (that needs to be nuanced, but I get the principle and it's more relevant to growth stocks than cyclical stocks). But I'm struggling (maybe because I'm breaking my own rules which serve me very well indeed. I am really struggling to hold here, but will do. I'll also add, but not at any old price. It has to be a price that I think represents a point at which fresh money might come in, or a point at which price action shows that buyers have arrived.

"When the trolls turn up it’s Time to buy"

That is actually a significant behavioural indicator Krak. Not sure who you're referring to, but that does have some value with respect market turns. Personally I don't see any strong technical or fundamental reasons for the SP here to fall (doesn't mean that it can't fall), so by default with the fundamental backdrop, I see the price action here as a consolidation between 17.5 to 21.5ish. I think (optimistically perhaps) that if we break the 21.5 level (daily close), this could rise quite fast and I'd have 25 or above a likely to be quickly achieved. I am tempted to buy more, but to do that, I'd prefer to see 17.5ish (buy low sell high). I'm not particulary convinced we'll see that though and I already have a large holding here (3 million shares).

I've been very clear that I'm very confused about the SP action here. Had we not had the SoH closure, then 150 could already have happened. You don't have to like, but in my view it was a serious possibility. I could only rationalise that on the basis of TA at the time. It remains possible, but I can't see any circumstance under which that could happen in the near future now. If O&G prices pulled back a long way I guess it would be possible, but I'm in agreement with others here that that is very unlikely in the next year or two.

Worth considering that I mentioned 261 level quite a while ago and it would have seemed impossible to most on this board. And like them, I struggled to believe it was likely, more recently, price action made it very likely and it's happened. If we don't get some very positive price action soon, then 241 or below is quite likely (could be 221 or below). Bearing in mind the fundamental situation here (both company management ability and price environment) I've been largely paralysed and have missed huge profits. That's life. I guess I changed my strategy as I believe the fundamental story and it's cost me. That's just the truth. If I'd not changed my strategy, I'd have made a lot on this. I am genuinely so confused about price vs fundamental back drop that I'm stuck like a rabbit in the headlights.

I'm making money elsewhere, but so far this year is below my expectations due to the opportunity cost that Jeffrey hints at. Fingers crossed the 'long play' (buffet's idea of money being transferred from the impatient to the patient) will pay off at some point.

Good luck with you're 400, but the sarcasm is a bit off.

OCDO announced a new partnership with ASDA this morning. This is an excerpt from the RNS: The transaction is not expected to have material financial impact in FY26. Ocado expects to turn cash flow positive during the second half of this financial year, with Full Year cash flow positivity expected in FY27.

The result has been so far a 10-15% increase in the SP.

HBR is banging profit away to it's bottom line, openly describing it's benefits to SH's in terms of dividend and share buybacks. Making very well timed M&A moves that will play into the bottom line. Result, a fall in SP from a high of 320 to 259/260 (19% fall in SP).

What's the difference? My guess is it's the view that HBR is a cyclical commodities play and OCDO is being viewed as a long term growth story. HBR is proving itself every day and OCDO is moving towards profit after 20 years or so? It is fascinating.

I still think, we'll get better SP's here in the future (but could dip to 241 or lower so I'm finding it difficult to add to my position at the moment).

Here's hoping that we see good profit for all of our hard work

"there is the potential of a further dip if peace deal is announced in June."

"Well firstly, that would be an incentive for BASF to agree to the deal I proposed."

That's so interesting. Many of us are questioning why the SP is not responding more positively to the increased O&G prices over an increased period. If BASF view the possibility of a dip in the price of O&G on news of a resolution to be quite likely, that makes many of us wrong on the expectation that higher prices for longer will be reflected in our SP. So if there was really any sense in that, it would be a worry. As a trader (who is not trading HBR at the moment) I do get the comment that positive news would likely see the SP come off and it could fall a fair bit further despite the fundamental arguments that I'm clinging to that the SP will rise over time. But, I would argue that BASF are not trading HBR stock, for whatever reason (could be any number of things and could be unrelated to what they feel about future O&G prices) they're interested in getting out. That's not trading, that's just liquidating to pull their money out for whatever it is that they need it for. I might be that HBR could offer them a guaranteed price, probably below the current price that would have BASF commit to a deal on these shares. I'd have thought that HBR could get a deal done quickly if BASF wanted it quickly, the longer it takes, the more likely it seems that BASF are not in that much of a rush to exit and could even indicate that they would prefer to wait for high SP.

Https://screenrec.com/share/ASxafY0rl9

Plays into your comment in a firmed up way Krak

And yet the SP is falling. Quite likely to go to 261 or below. It's as if the SP is pricing in 50-60 dollars a barrel in the near future. Interestingly HBR falling harder than ENQ and it was led by the XOP ETF which I've mentioned a couple of times. Useful for US sentiment on O&G stocks, particulary as it trades for a few hours after the UK closes. Here's the latest chart on that (I havent'moved the upper tl that I posted previously and which looked to be breaking to the upside, but then pulled back. HBR is still in a sideways trading range, but these a big swings (that I'm missing out on). XOP pulled back hard and HBR is following that. I think XOP could pull back to 155 or below (again I mentioned this previously although it sounds stupid from a macro perspective). If there is a relationship between XOP and HBR, then a pull back to 155 would likely co-incide with a pull back HBR to 240 or even lower. I'm not wishing for this as I'm paralysed by my belief that HBR will benefit so much from the SoH closure that it simply must rerate to the upside. That belief has blocked me from trading largely and had me sat on my hands collecting a very moderate dividend in the hope of capital gains. Remember when you compare the charts. HBR is behind XOP which I think makes it likely to fall further.

https://screenrec.com/share/6vAoT4QMEh

Might be on the move again? Tomorrow could be interesting.

I take Sekforde/Stevo and Hunbah very seriously, that's why I say that I have no idea how to rationalise the SP here. I have a strong belief that we are undervalued and yet the market is marking us down with changes in spot oil prices. There seems to be a complete disconnect between what we're being paid per barrel and also for gas, vs what the spot paper price says and what the SP says.

Wow, that's a big drop on open. I think 261 or lower is coming soon. I have no way of rationalising the SP here.

"The rally on Monday will likely be short-lived or choppy. "

Yeah, might not even get a rally tomorrow. I've my money on no change in the SP tomorrow.

Apologies, although realted to the article posted, I was reading Trump's tweet word for word.

Well, the wording suggests that someone brighter than Trump wrote that. At least it's respectful (or not disrespectful). Have to wait and see what actually happens, but it beats insults and patronising other politicians. I'd be tempted to take this more seriously than previous tweets (largely because a grown up did it for him).

If there's much truth to it, then I fear our SP might suffer at least in the short term.

Buffet is in bonds, when he says cash, he means bonds and is probably getting 4% or maybe more for his 'cash'

That after Trump/Netanyahu's argument? Smoke and mirrors? US telling Israel to back down, Israel going it alone on this new 'intelligence'. What a world we live in. You can't trust a single piece of information we're fed.

If Israel do strike, that'll fracture their alliance with the US and tighten the deadlock in the SoH.

Well, volume not particularly high, but we're having another perky day here. I'm wondering whether we might see 247-270 price range? Fingers crossed!

I really need to learn a little more about balance sheets/financial reports

It seems to me that we took a 25million pound hit on increased fuel in March alone (pro-rata 250 million for 2026). RASK up 1%, but CASK up 5%. This is taking into account our hedging of 72% to the end of 2026. Some comfort attempted to be drawn from the observation that fuel prices remain in backwardation (i.e . the hope that CASK might reduce over time).

Looks negative to me, but with management putting a positive face on. Can someone with a deeper understanding explain some of the niceties to me?

IRGC let 89 ships sail through Hormuz.

Suggested that that is the cause of the drop in oil/O&G companies and rise in Airlines. I have not confirmed it, but it makes sense.