Member Info for Stupmy

Markets look jumpy, oil moving up, FTSE moving down, even US500 tending down a bit. Has one of Trump's insiders put some big bets on? Are we expecting something a twa t on tw atter from the great man? I get the feeling something is happening.

There's not much to cheer about in that article, but with the SoH closed it's just common sense that we're moving deeper into a very difficult situation for discretionary travel, wether that be due to higher fares or cancelled flights. If you take into account the logistics of re-instating transport of fuel through the SoH to it's required destinations then you have to consider that it would take a month or so to normalise. We're 23/04 now that takes us past mid May and suggests it will be impossible now to avoid flight cancellations. If the Strait remains closed, those headwinds will really start to hit the financial statements of discretionary travel companies. Really does seem like common sense that these difficulties are real and do not have a quick solution. On the other hand each time news of the Strait being opened hits, the SP leaps. That just demonstrates to me that there is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for a good entry. It doesn't relate to the actual problems that the airlines are now facing. This 3 day 'war' is in it's 7th week now, Trump has lost credibility, lost his gung ho edge and now Iran are gradually controlling all negotiations.

Are you suggesting, that 10pp is tiny and therefore unimportant and that makes those that are taking decisions based upon that level of risk t ssers? I guess, you're intimating that you are a significantly larger fish (but you're coming over as a t sser all the same). Bad form Osaka to belittle people based on what they have or don't have, what they risk or don't risk. Better to accept that people need to risk balance according to their own criteria. And none of that will affect you or you're position (again pointing to you being a t sser).

"There will be many a catastrophe in the waiting to take an advantage in trading this IMHO"

You're post on SDLF Nick.

Why do you complain that someone has a negative outlook on airlines moving forward from here? Seems reasonable that the board supports positive and negative views? Makes you look somehow hypocritical?

Anything on March sales?

With FCF 1.4 billion Linda says her commitment is minimum 300 million to dividends. Acknowledging that BASF will continue to exit their substantial holding and HBR's increased cashflow is useful to buy back shares during this period.

80 dollar oil 13 dollar gas for the year, gives FCF 1.4 billion and SH distributions double to 600 million dollars.

Seems to be putting a waft of warm air under the SP. 80 dollars oil over the year (conservative in her view) gives a lift from 600 million to 1.4billion profit.

"If whatever deal we were due to complete on has now failed because of the rise in prices only other option would be to use the cash in bank to pay off the notes and save on the interest costs"

That's an interesting thought KO, how do you (or anyone else) rate that as a probability of being correct? Retiring those bonds at 11+% makes sense if FCF is much higher (which it must be), but having more free cash due to a potential deal stalling/ending would also provide that financial fire power. Profittaker is the 478 million the value of the bonds being retired?

"I look forward to hearing what the replacement coupon will be."

Me too, that was way high. Good to get it resolved. Is that related to recently increased FCF?

Reduction in what?

Anyone understand the sharp spike down at 9:10 this morning? Price actually hit 276, but volume was less than 10,000 during that 10s period?

Would love to understand it if anyone can help me. If it's real, then the price has more than satisfied my view of 350p being likely. I had a short in place with a limit exit of 351. That did not trigger, maybe the flash drop wasn't real? Odd business. Anyway, I'm 10p off side on that short currently and have no strong feeling on where the price is going in the near future. I guess the continuing high POO and potential availability issues could still lead to downside.

It's almost predictable that Hegseth or Trump would use the media to spread 'fake news' in a way that would disrupt any progress on negotiations with Iran. This is the nature of unchecked narcisism. They can't change, the only hope is that those around them can reign them in.

Of interest to me at least, the XOP pretty well hit the area I discussed yesterday and bounced. I guess it must all be related to newsflow one way or another but I can't fathom that out. It might mean that we'll bounce again come monday if US sentiment on the sector has changed. Often US sentiment leads world sentiment.

"Is it possible that we have a significant number of US investors? The reason I say that is that the S&P Oil and Gas exploration ETF (XOP) is pulling back. It's currently at 163.41 and looks likely (on the basis of TA) to hit 154 or lower (maybe 152.5). I can't help wondering whether our SP is linked to US sentiment (that expl sector SP's have over run themselves for the moment). If there's any water in that idea, then a print of 152/154 on XOP could mark a very good speculative point to add to ENQ/HBR."

This looked a long shot a couple of days ago when I posted. But XOP is now at 157ish. In a sense that sounds obvious with the Strait open. But the effect on POO (futures) was instant and knee jerk. The effect on stock SP's has also been very fast. We've all discussed that the spot price for the last 6 weeks is baked into the acounts, the deals have been done and the money flow will show up in the coming updates. These 6 weeks have significantly benefited ENQ and HBR and yet the SP's have plunged. It'll be interesting to see where this settles, but it could be a reflection of 'hot money'(leverage?) leaving these trades. At some point, these falls in price will be overdone. I'm still going to be watching XOP and assuming it's a marker of risk appetite in the O&G sector that is relevent to us. I could imagine HBR off to 240 or so (that is not necessarily the bottom), and ENQ to 14-15 (again, i'm not calling it as a bottom). But if we're right and the money taken during the last 6 weeks and what will be taken over the coming weeks of elevated O&G prices makes a significant difference to our bottom line, then there has to be a level at which adding to our positions makes sense. Very interesting times. Times where it's worth having some dry powder.

Then of course you have to factor in the Trump effect, if Iran have said the strait is open, I guess it's open, but how long before Trump or Hegseth make another insulting tweet that gets it closed again!!

When you say commercial ships, does that include LNG/Oil/Kerosene etc?

Middle of May is 6 weeks, that's the timeline that other commentators are suggesting will lead into a period of supply restriction for the summer season. Seems consistent with what's happening in the SoH rather than blown out of proportion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4zjKX_CoeE

Not specific to ENQ, but we've discussed price targets and wondered about what goes into them. This 35min video gives a clue to how pricings are made and how those targets are influenced. It's interesting and is not necessarily worked out the you'd imagine it was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdgEzf6SrLE

For the EPL, it's unlikely to be scrapped while o&g are this high, but could be the perfect time to make the thresholds and periods for the thresholds on o&g prices more in line with average inflation adjusted prices. That could be done without much of a fuss and would provide some support for NS O&G companies as prices fall back (as they surely will at some point). My guess is that these things will be tinkered with to provide more visibility for O&G companies and therefore stimulate investment.

https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/oil-taxation-manual/ot21815

I try (and have tried) a bit of everything. I have my bread and butter ideas that work. Then, recently when I thought that I'd have more time to focus very intently, I moved to day trading. Minimum bets, silver/gold/oil/indices whatever (not FOREX) and over 3 mths I won about 4-5k. I figured that was moving the right way, but the stress was high as it involved gains vs losses with gains having to be greater than losses. It was fast, stressful and it worked. Then I broke the rules and lost 6k in a day! I realised my home situation was not conducive to the level of concentration and focus that you need for the shorter time frames. I got the impression though that it could work if you've got the time/peace and concentration (and discipline) to stick to the rules of whatever game you're playing. I'll have to wait a while until my youngest is more independent and I can lock the office door and tell him to bugger off and sort it out himself!!

Aspers, great trade. I can't get that right consistently enough to make it pay over time. I win a few then get a loss big enough to make it not worth the effort.

Thumper, bad luck, that was a close thing. Often happens to me also with limits, the price get's so close that you can almost feel the heat, but then no cigar. Maybe build a bit more 'mess' into your model? I'll consider buying again around 350 or lower.