Member Info for Stupmy

Bearing in mind they initially suggested it would take 6mths, I'd say 2 yrs is patient.

Sipp, why do you say a deal with HBR is likely and what form do you think that would take. Linda stated that HBR is about the right size and that they are not looking for further acquisitions at the moment. If that's true, are you suggesting HBR might be interested in divesting their NS assets and that ENQ might be interested in taking them? Do you have any information sources on this or is it purely guess work?

Well Owls VJ seems to be in profit and in my view we have a good likelihood of seeing 181 or below. Having said that, I am not short, just waiting for an entry. Also VJ is filtered so I presume he's a complete timewaster.

Kamrat/Tarmak has posted a very important take on strategic reserves over on the Enq board. Worth a read in my view. Although not EZJ specific, it's not hard to see how it could impact EZJ's numbers.

I think we'll see 348 or below in the relatively near future. At that level if we see it, I'll be looking to buy.

Kamrat, that's encouraging. I did add this morning (just a little). It's been frustrating not understanding the lack of response in the SP, but posts from knowledgeable people helps keep it all in perspective. Thanks.

Good volume on this move. Some news coming?

Anyone know what's driving the SP? Can't see anything in their financial calendar?

Heathrow business and traffic commentary. 5% drop in passenger numbers related to Middle East conflict. Resilient demand. They comment vaguely on jet fuel availability. Trying to keep it positive, what the real situation is was unclear.

Looks like we'll get the classic weekend sell-off here, so maybe 17.3 is possible by close. Each weekend we get a similar situation where people wonder whether we'll get resolution over the weekend and a drop in O&G prices on the announcement, leading to a reflex drop in the SPs of the oil producers. Everything is risky and speculative, but if we're right here about the O&G prices likely to be higher for longer and the impact on our debt likely to be very positive, it seems like a worth while bet to try to view this as an opportunity. I'm quite heavy on ENQ, but I'm also a believer in this story, so I'll start to add if we see close to 17..3

IAG expecting a 1.7bn pound hit due to increased cost of fuel. I believe that's with 70% hedged. I'm not sure why some are so sure that EZJ will not be affected. Occam's razor suggests that it will take some sort of hit. Additionally, strategic reserves are falling as are commercial reserves. The longer the blockade remains in place (my understanding is that it's very likely to be until minimum end of May) the more complicated this gets for airlines. Once strategic and commercial reserves are finished, then rationing and cancellations will hit all airlines. Obviously let's hope that doesn't happen, but to my mind the risks are pretty clear.

I think we'll see 350 or below.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/08/british-airways-owner-issues-profit-warning-over-soaring-jet-fuel-costs

Speculatively that could be the low for now so I've added a small amount for now. If it did drop to 17.3, I'd a lot more, but that's really a high probability in my view.

It's the same with many stocks breakofdawn. It might just be an indication that we're chasing profits in a backwater. The big money is elsewhere (tech/semiconductors/precious metals/software). Air travel is a cyclical low marging business that doesn't attract much interest from deep pockets. There are opportunities and I look for them, but you have to be like a sniper to make the good money in stocks like this.

I think that is a good point property1. Burnham and Rayner could be spooking the markets, however that might be more of a problem for ENQ with a higher concentration of production in the UK. HBR's diversification should protect it and yet the two SP's are moving in a similar fashion.

Sorry that was HBR coming off to 261 or below, not 161.

Also wanted to be clearer that it looks to me as if the market is not pricing in higher for longer O&G prices. That might change if strategic and commercial reserves are run down and we get some fuel rationing.

Thanks Hunbah. I feel the same. I feel as though everything is lining up behind ENQ and we're in a better place than I can remember us ever being. That's frustrating to me as the SP is not reflecting that (yet). Maybe I'm just impatient. I'm normally quite active at trading, but this opportunity (like HBR) seems so good that I've done very little with it. As some have advised me previously, it's better to hang on for the big prize than to take small amounts during the swings. Now that I'm waiting for the 'big prize', I'm simply missing out on my swings and earning nothing but dividends here. Maybe it's me, maybe I'm a jinx.

It's always tempting to look for reasons for SP movements and in my case I don't think I get those guesses right very often. But, I don't think the SP is being blocked by the EPL (reason is that HBR is in the same boat; but much lower EPL exposure). We are predicting prices of oil/gas to remain higher for longer and that at some point the paper price and the physical price will come closer together at a price that is higher than the 60s and that will be maintained into 2027. Maybe once reserves begin to run down (which must be close to happening), we'll get the rerate.

I'm also watching the XOP ETF (S&P O&G expl/prod) and that is well of it's peak (190) and continued to fall yesterday to around 166. I like using TA and think it's entirely possible that it could fall to 154. It's not showing any strength (although there was a little buying into yesterdays close). If it did fall to that level I see HBR off to 161 or below and ENQ going below 18 (it hasn't done that yet) possibly to 17.3 ish. If ENQ reached that level, I think I'd be looking to add about 20-25% to my holding.

I wonder the same thing Mike, but ENQ is behaving the same way. When's the next time that a placing can happen? June?

Thanks Stevo. So at an average of 76 dollars in Q1 we could be looking at fcf of 50m. I guess we'll be getting a lot more than 76 for Q2 even if there was a fast resolution of the blockade. So Q2 could be a lot stronger fcf. How much of that fcf is likely to be used to pay down debt vs pay divis/buybacks etc.

From memory we have an update coming on May 22nd. How much excess debt is likely to be paid down due to the 2-3 mths of elevated oil prices? I think it's been discussed by Stevo/Sekforde/Hunbah, but is there any chance of a little refresher? HBR seem to have paid down 900 million and as a result (plus the cyclical, nonsensical newsflow) the SP fell from 300 to 274 (8-9%). It's all making my head spin, but if it's possible could someone update on the likely debt reduction for ENQ (if only to work out how big a drop to expect; facetious of course).

Thanks smkr, nice find. I do think though, that there is a good chance now of 181 or lower.

Linda stated in the live video call that the company is already about the right size and she has no plans to build further M&A into it. I'm reading that as 'it's time to pay down debt and embed the businesses we've acquired'. Some kept over to reward SHs. I really think M&A is off the table untilt he quality of our debt is increased.

It's already less than 320 so that's a safe call. I'm hoping it moves above 320!