Member Info for Stupmy

Not quite finished in the US, but who knows, maybe this presages something. Sweet dreams lovely people

https://screenrec.com/share/1vBoqan7Fw

Https://screenrec.com/share/Ive0F9YPCy

XOP chartjust to give an idea of what I alluded to. You can see the price is bang up against the descending tl now. If that breaks this evening, I'd ot be at all surprised to see HBR/ENQ SP rise tomorrow. Rationale is simply that we're outside of UK trading hours, but XOP gives an idea of US sentiment (incl any news on SoH) and may give a little preview of what sentiment will be in the UK on market open tomorrow.

I meant to say ENQ might est 25./26. The 21.5 would be the breakout levl

Chart patterns very similar, particularly oil vs HBR vs ENQ, all consolidating in a bullish triangle pattern. Currently HBR, ENQ and oil are just below the highs they've achieved over the last 3 mths. If they break up, it could give us a nice boost. In that case I could imagine HBR testing it's previous high around 321 and ENQ at 21.5.

XOP is interesting, it's a US E&P ETF. The pattern is different, but either it is reflecting the above described price actions, or possibly the US price action is showing US appetite for O&G E&P companies including HBR and ENQ. It's interesting in a way as it trades outside the european/UK trading hours so might give an idea to sentiment after we close. At the current time at 176.71, it's about to challenge it's descending tl at around 178. If it breaks that, I think it might indicate that sentiment has moved in our favour and lead to us breaking out also. All just thinking out loud of course.

Here's Bob Brackett on the Eisman's podcast. Why, in this historic period of supply shock, are O&G company SPs not rising.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFGIXqpyVzA

Price is gagging to move up. If we close above 305, I think a retest of 320/321 is very likely and on the basis of todays price action it's likely to happen quite quickly unless there's a very quick resolution of the crisis.

Explanation of the 'modest' effect of the SoH blockade on POO and derivatives.

Around 8:30mins in is where it's specific.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLOEE_qM0rs

What's good to see is the speed of that bounce on Pak istan presenting Iran's latest proposal to the US. Shows, that there's money on the sidelines ready to jump in. Whether that's for a sustained rise or a quick profit I don't know, but I'm guessing it's the latter with no resolution of the blockades.

****stan has given the us a revised iranian proposal to end the war. source ig markets news.

oil etc down/airlines up.

Good question Thumper, I wasn't aware that EZJ were cancelling flights.

There seems to be a disconnect between what airlines are saying and what expert commentators are saying. I guess one way to explain that might be that Ryanair have large commercial reserves. Does anyone know if they really do or not?

Posted by Frac on the ENQ board. Relevent here.

https://www.ft.com/content/08665686-f673-46ca-9dba-fd34e1546e7c?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Since the start of the blockade (fuel supply shock/cost shock), POO/fuel has increased 60-100% depending upon which figures you want to use. In fact price of physical oil/fuel is more than 100%. What hasn't happened is fuel rationing or EZJ cutting flights/routes due to fuel cost. For the oil companies (look to HBR and ENQ as examples) their SP's have not increased (the increases that you see started before the crisis and have not proportionally moved up with the supply/cost crisis. You could postulate that the reason is that strategic and commercial reserves have prevented this supply/cost shock from becoming catastrophic. EZJ price has fallen and that is likely related to real and anticipated changes to the cost/accessibility of fuel hitting the bottom line numbers. There are commentators out there suggesting that the buffer provided by strategic/commerical reserves could be seriously impaired after 3 mths of supply shock. That means, if the problems in the SoH are not resolved by end of May, the price of oil/derivatives/fuel could increase sharply from here. If there's any truth such an idea, then things could change by or soon after the end of May. At that point, we might see oil company SPs move to the upside in recognition of their increased profits not being a flash in the pan and simultaneously increased pressure on the SPs of airlines.

Well, whatever the truth is, time will tell us and we're pretty well at the weekend. Classically, as we move into the weekends, oil company SPs weaken (fear of news of a resolution becoming public) and I'm not sure about airlines, but you could imagine a little speculative buying in the hope of a resolution of SoH blockade being made public.

Well, that's timely as we're in a range bound consolidation at the moment. A close above 21.6 would seem to me to favour a move to 25.25 or above. That's actually where I think we're headed. But a close below 17.25, doesn't look too pretty and I don't think it's likely.

Price is at the previous low around 341 (Apr 30th), that could bring buyers in. No sign of buying overwhelming the selling though for the moment, I think there is a reasonable risk that the price could retest 337 (a low from Mar 23rd. On both of these dates, fear related to POO/fuel was elevated due to the SoH conflict, the SoH is still closed so there's no real reason for deep pockets to get involved for the moment. That favours further downside or sideways trading (hard to imagine this crisis is as large as the COVID crisis though). Maybe sideways, but with a reasonable risk of a fall to 337. On the other side of that, public progress (with a believable timeline for SoH opening) could give 10-15% jump in SP quite quickly (a strategy for trading?). When I look at a weekly chart, price was around 280 in Oct 2022, and according to my data (IG markets Pro-Realtime charts) we retested that on Apr 20th 2026 (and rapidly rejected it. For me, the way things stand is that entries around here have a very high likelihood of allowing investors/traders to get out without loss (probably with profits), but anything lower looks compelling if you believe that this crisis will not lead to capital raises. I started buying (very moderately) around 350 and would probably double if we saw 337 or signs of sustained buying.

Haven't they cut flights and declared a hit of 1.6 bn pounds on excess fuel charges after taking hedging into account?

I think it's a bit difficult to understand, but these things take time to work through. The seabourne oil/fuel reached it's destinations after 1 mth, during the next month that has been being used and also some fuel/oil from strategic and commercial reserves is being used. In the 3rd month from my understanding, we're really using up commercial and strategic reserves ( I believe that we are legally obliged to have these in place, so that 3mth window is quite important). At the end of the 3rd month (in about 10-16 days, the commercial and strategic reserves are likely to come under pressure and the price of fuel/oil/lng etc will like move once again to the upside. That's not good for airlines that are low margin businesses depending up disretionary spending (being hit by inflation which is likely understated despite US CPI have risen, as it underestimates the hit from shelter/housing). The next thing hit comes if businesses either can't pass on the increased cost of fuel to customers (because it's simply gone too high and reduces discretionary spend), or they can't access enough fuel to continue their full rostas. At that point, those businesses depending heavily on these products at sensible prices will start to take big hits to their bottom line even if they've got sensible hedges in place. It's just my view, but I think by the end of May, things will look worse than they do now.

Really appreciate your input Kamrat. Can I ask if you have a view on how long it will take for the shortage to impact our SP?

Positive results and upbeat view on trends into summer.

I did, I've bought and sold twice for around 27p profit each time. I have no exposure at the moment.

Over time, if this SoH problem resolves, EZJ will probably recover to the areas you suggest, but I don't know when this will resolve. If it lasts too long, the damage to the worlds economy will be structural. In that case, I think that the airlines could get hit much harder than they have been. In my view, the SP could fall furrther than 348. I just believe that that level is a resonable place to start buying.