Member Info for Stupmy

"We are not like Harbour or come to that Serica. Harbour are more diversified country wise"

It's my point exactly and it's why I don't believe the arguments put forward by you and KO explain the SP (except the time argument and higher for long oil and gas prices. These companies are different, and yet their SP's are behaving in a similar fashion... ie. no rerate on the basis of such a positive market background.

All makes some sense KO, but I'm still not convinced. Those arguments don't apply to Harbour and it's in the same position. Except perhaps the timing. Higher for longer oil and gas prices surely must feed through to the SP at some point. As you know I'm quite active when it comes to trading. I have missed so many opportunities on ENQ/HBR this year because I have the belief that the supply shock will feed through to the SP and it simply hasn't for the time being. Although I agree with the things you're saying, I don't believe it explains the moribund SP (except your time argument).

In a sense it sounds rational, but you could use the argument the other way round to suggest that a small amount of buying could have a big impact on the SP. Also, ENQ is not the only company that is struggling to make headway in what seems to be a favourable market. Fingers crossed, the 'tight' nature of the SH register if it is indeed tight, could lead to a rapid change in the SP with the right triggers.

Bright guy, well informed, I'm a fan. Good summary of where we are on the closure of the Strait

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwpZBo9awbc

About 10 mins in there's a bit on jet fuel. This guys, intelligent and well informed. Worth a watch from start to finish, but if you're rushed 10 mins in is the airline relevant bit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwpZBo9awbc

"Sensitivity: A $1/mscf change in European gas prices for the full year impacts Harbour's 2026 free cash flow by approximately $150 million."

I think Linda said exactly that in her recent video update.

Value, I'm not assuming it's capped at 300m, but Linda restated her comittment to 300m in the recent video conference. She didn't intimate more, but did intimate it was a good time to be buying back shares in the face of large holders selling down. Not sure if that means she can make agreements off market to reduce the impact of sellers on our SP?

Maybe it's just the weekend. News of potential talks, people selling down just in case there's news of an agreement and a fall back on the basis of sentiment. Oil still high and this fall back is not ENQ specific. Hard to understand really with so much now moving in favour of ENQ/HBR as to why the SP is not really factoring that in.

Did any of you actually listen to what Linda said? It would save you a lot of mental energy on the M&A topic

POO rising. Markets pricing that oil in an anticipatory fashion, but now that seabourne reserves are depleted and SPR's are being run down, there could be a change to that and the POO/LNG could start to reflect what's actually happening, rather than the expectation that things could get bad.

ENQ SP is bang up against a trendline at 20.5 (wedge pattern). If we close above that 20.5 level on a daily basis, then it's easy to see the potential for a move to around 25p (there is a potential supply zone there), but the price could also move to around 28p.

Now wouldn't that be a pleasure to see.

Just looked at your posting history Amers!

40p or lower now looks very likely and that co-incides with an area of probably support from buyers. This is simply a TA view, but the narrative is changing in the press which feeds into TA. There's a good chance that level will hold (about 4% drop from here), but if it doesn't and the publich narrative continues to be negative, then 35 and even 30 come into play. For me (I stated this previously a couple of years ago), if the price comes close to 30p I will build into FOXT in a reasonably large way. But, only time will tell and no-one can see into the future.

If we can get back to 180 area, then I'd be tempted to build into this.

Thanks JAS

"See ghalibaf news"

Just post it, or a summary of it.

Thanks VS

Lovely lego-version of what's happening. Credit to Dumbly (ENQ board), but relevant here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZbBjmDwHJQ

As an aside, I posted on a rapid drop in SP a day or two ago. It hit (from memory) around 276 on low volume over a few seconds and recoved. That low corresponds closely to the low during COVID. I don't know how to interpret it for the moment.

Andy, that's a really important anchor and one that I use too. I need to check back into whether there were refinancings during that period. I was investing/trading TUI and EZJ during that period and I think (needs checking) that both required refinancing. That's not pretty for SH's. I think you're intimating that this situation is currently less severe than the COVID one and I agree. But if airlines do have to ground a significant proportion of their fleets just a few years after the COVID shock I think it could significantly affect SP.

Forensic, there are no stupid questions in a discussion in my view. I don't have the knowledge to answer your question effectively, but another way of looking at it is to read that article posted earlier. If you assume that the authorities and companies are knowledgeable (I think that's a fair bet) then that letter clearly suggests that there is no easy solution to the supply shock in oil/gas and kerosene. If there was, there would be no sense of impending problems. These problems are real, they are publicly stated by people in the know and to ignore them, as some would prefer to do, seems like gambling on the possibility of a rapid re-opening of the Strait and normalisation of deliveries. My understanding is that that is a massive long shot. Personlly I'm running with the most obvious, continued headwinds for discretionary travel.