Member Info for Skeletor

Can we really put the sp weakness down to 1 seller dripping a percent a month? What is that as a percentage of total volume traded? This has gone 130 to 30 with the main reason cited as a large seller but this large seller in that timeframe has sold 6% of the company. That is some dramatic impact….

CMW. The most you can build a stake to in the open market is 29.9%. If you trigger 30% you are obliged to make a takeover offer which right now would not be in Polygon's interest as they would have to pay over current value for the 70%. I am amazed (and delighted) they have gone to 22% and I guess they may go further but can't see them going much further.

Hall. Yesterday you declared “multiple MTA’s” as one of your “upsides” to the investment. I don’t know how a day later you are claiming that you expected none to still be in play so having 1 is a bonus?

For me I have taken a huge hit today not because we only have 1 MTA left but the way we have been told. Buried a few scrolls down the results statement. This is the first we have been told that 2 of the 3 MTAs have been stopped I can’t believe this didn’t merit an update as it is material news. Just stinks of dishonesty to be honest. N4p clearly need the sp higher (so they can raise) and didn’t dare tell the truth upfron in the current climate of sp decline. Until this point I would have argued that N4P positive was their integrity but this shows that at times of desperation even that can wane.

I have left a small amount in my SIPP as “just in case I am wrong” money but my trust in the BoD ended today.

Cash is 12.5p. Phase 3 trial on activ is worth another 15p. The fact there was a 37% reduction in death bs placebo is potentially worth something. I was willing to sell at 40-50p but this is a ridiculous overreaction.

Obviously disappointing but to say there is no slivers is a bit harsh. Secondary endpoints whilst not outstanding were encouraging…

More significantly in the same time period that this was run we had a successful p2 trial in activ2 and are still on a £30m free p3 trial there.

Thirdly this was still a good company before we even heard of covid. I believe it will continue to be so after but this time with £25m in the bank.

Going to be a down day but be careful of falling for the overreaction.

We all say how synairgen is not leaky and plays with a straight bat which I can go along with…. However before manic Mondays phase 2 results we had seen avg volumes of 1.5m daily (similar to now) and then on the Friday before we had 9m volume (interestingly with very little price change). I guess the lack of price change is why we say it isn’t leaky but 9m volume was a spike not previously seen so i tend not to think a coincidence.

I guess wrongly or rightly I am therefore looking for a random spike in volume as an indicator we will get the RNS a day later… decent volume today but nothing hugely out of the ordinary…. I do have next week as the most likely week though just maybe not Monday.

Isn't this suggesting that synairgen is less important to Omicron as it already is terrible at subduing the natural interferon whereas Synairgen would have been ideal for Delta as it would have replaced the bodies natural ability to respond?

Hoping I have missed something that you can correct for me...

Either way - Our trial data is against Delta which means that a) we should see strong results but b) Do we have to jump through additional hoops to show that this is equally valid for Omicron?

Full disclaimer: I am not invested here (lost plenty elsewhere though!)

I am interested in this board though so do follow from time to time… very interested in seeing if the placing can be stopped by enough shareholders voting no. Would be great to see any forward sellers get the shock of their lives and their need to buy back may help some recover here… although these same spivs can be buying in smalll amounts now to begin and cover themselves….

Out of interest: I have always thought that not voting was considered a vote with the BoD? If so do you need 50% of all shareholding to vote “no” or just 50% of those who vote to vote “no”. If the former then I imagine it is going to be very difficult but if the latter then I am excited to see if you guys make it happen.

Good luck.

I’m confused as I thought the whole novel thing about the activ trials was the seamless move from phase 2 to 3? In reality in what way has the timelines here been different to our own hospitalised trial for example?

Obviously we all wait for sprinter p3 results so for now Activ is a side show (although one day could prove to be very important).

Looks high today nearly 1m traded and not 10am yet.

Original Tweet that sparked this thread now deleted.....??

I have to say that this does make me worry that they have been pulled not filled. far more likely that they were advertising so they were as far down the road as possible but still able to not financially commit before results. Maybe they no longer require these roles.....

On the more positive side they did only advertise when surely they had sight of a large amount of the data so perhaps the decision to remove vacancy is just entirely un related to the P3 results..... Anyone who thinks all 5 jobs on the same day hit peak application rate and/or all had offers accepted is either ramping or delusional.

With some of the settlement figures and sp valuations knocking around mixed with the confidence that we are in the box seat I have 2 questions:

1. Why is the mixture of likelihood and reward not reflected in the sp?

2. If Samsung were looking anything like having to pay out £900m why would they not make an all share offer for the company now and end it. Are you telling me the board would turn down a 5 X current sp offer for the business? The target price they set as their incentive suggests they don’t think we are going to be seeing £1+

I am pretty heavily invested here as a see near term upside and understand the logic of the huge claim but of it was realistic we would see that part baked into the sp by now I think.

completely agree with the OP here.

I just watched the video braced for bad news based on sp activity in last hour and my main takeout was that by 1st July we could get an RNS that basically tells us it is working.... Okay not on a big enough data set and not yet knowing the ideal dose but nonetheless it is working... I never expected that we would have a chance of being so close to that level of progress. LS clearly believed that the phase 1A data may be enough to get commercial partnerships (whether we would want them or not at this stage is another matter).

Obviously I recognise that the above is glass half full and that the fact we could get positive data so soon also means we could get negative data soon also.

AS also talked about LG Chem etc again. We have no idea how significant they are to our balance sheet (maybe find out a little more in April) but a few times he has suggested they are more significant than PI's factor. in our interim results from Sept in the "about Avacta" section it has this paragraph which I admit I don't understand the significance of but...

"Avacta has established drug development partnerships with pharma and biotech, including a research collaboration with ModernaTX, Inc. (formerly Moderna Therapeutics Inc.), a multi-target deal with LG Chem worth up to $400m, a joint venture in South Korea with Daewoong Pharmaceutical focused on cell and gene therapies incorporating Affimer immune-modulators and a collaboration with Point Biopharma to develop radiopharmaceuticals based on the pre|CISION™ platform. Avacta continues to actively seek to license its proprietary platforms in a range of therapeutic areas."

Even on the LFT front where I assume investors have angrily reacted to the idea we may have to get regulator approval again etc I don't think it was terrible. Clearly he is focused on PREcision and expects one day to have a small earner in LFTs but he made a remark about them being a commodity product suggesting it is a flooded market. There is not a flooded market when it comes to cancer therapies where multiple strength doses can be safely administered and that should excite all investors.

Do they not feel obliged to expand on “network difficulty”?

I think you are on cloud cuckoo lane if you are unhappy with that target. £3.50 as a base is more than double from here and they would need £4.50 to get their max. Well I think £4.50 is a pretty good target to aim for from here. Those who bought at £8 or £9 and have held all the way down that is not NCYT’s fault. They were being valued on a global pandemic which at the time was showing no abating this is a new world and if NCYT can be £4.50 a share post pandemic then I am pretty happy.

This reminds me of a company I once saw RNS they had won a huge contract…. Anyone who read beyond the first paragraph noted that the contract actually had a minimum value of £0!!…. Anyhow, not sure how many of you are familiar with this but that RNS pushed the sp up despite lots of PI’s voicing their doubts (most of them got called deramping idiots or were accused of shorting). Turned out though that the contract expired with 0 orders.

Can’t remember who that company was now but worth noting you get these unprofessional outfits who can’t write a professional RNS/market update for to save their lives. If I remember I will let you know but in the meantime that RNS this morning is the most clumsy and deliberate attempt to ramp the sp ahead of a placing I have ever seen.

ATB

Anyone else think it would have been nice to get the readouts from the initial dose?

We have inferred it is safe but it was a 90% dose so should be safe. I assume even though the primary endpoint is proving safety that we are also looking to see what dose got delivered to the tumor vs the other healthy organs... It would be great to be told that it successfully limited the release of the drug in parts of the body and then successfully delivered the full dose to the tumor?

BeContrarian - A late reply to yesterdays thread.

I gave it a tick as you are absolutely right. I do like to challenge my optimism as I find it healthy especially in a 12 month stretch where I have seen my PF decline in value from the dizzy heights of 2020 despite getting much of the positive newsflow I was invested for.

I have bothered to reply again this morning as I think a case in point has happened over at Avacta. By no means as commercial as P£ readouts but nevertheless if you had asked Avacta cheerleaders (FWIW I am invested less so than here but not a cheerleader on the board) pre this morning what rise the news would have produced then I think they would have predicted high double digit percentages.... and in truth if the same RNS had been released in 2020 or early 2021 I think they would have been right.

But this morning a major positive update has put 12% on the SP (for context a rumour last week that this would happen put nearly 20% on the SP). Like SNG it doesn't matter in the very long term as once commercialisation or buyouts occur they will lead to the correct valuation but the interim catalysts don't seem to be piling as much onto the SP as it used to.

Positive P3 results will absolutely confirm my conviction that we are a £10 per share company but I really doubt we will see even half of that on results day. I guess we wail to find out who is right (P.s. I hope its you!)

There is no doubt that results are taking longer (albeit not my much) than Richard expected as he initially indicated end 2021 at a time when the last patient dosed was going to be October (see a previous post of mine where I reasoned 3rd week of October). So we had a 3-4 week delay to dosing complete which meant we slipped into 2022 but if Richard believed 2021 was possible with October trial end then he must have privately believed Jan was the new likely month for results.

I therefore believe we are now delayed not because this was always the intended length of time but in fact because results are taking longer to publish than management had baked in...

... What I have no idea about is whether this is positive (preparing for the media scrum and EUA), negative (trying to find some positive slant on what are disappointing results) or irrelevant (was always going to take this long and it was unrealistic we would ever have got results in 2021 even if final dosing had occurred sooner).

What I do know is that I will be buying more if this touches 180/181!