Member Info for Skeletor

Matml I agree with you and that is why I am invested. I guess I am saying that positive p3 results is just one of 5 or 6 events that gets us there and will be a big sp catalyst but too many on here are expecting another 5 bagger in one day which I’m this climate and with success more baked in than last time (imo) I just don’t think we will see the sort of rise people are quoting on here in that one event. I do however believe it will be the catalyst to a continued uptrend which (again imo) will lead to a buyout. My 950p target for next 12 months remains but I don’t think we will get to even half of that on p3 results day…..

….. unless the statistics are so overwhelming such as 0 out of 300 deaths in SNG group vs 20 out of 300 deaths in placebo. In that scenario I guess all bets are off.

Inhale reasoned something similar in the past but I will question again:

I don’t know why people assume that on the publishing of good news re P3 this will open at 500-700p? Even if I take the lower of those values it means the market is currently offering us 5-2 odds on a positive result which in percentage terms means the market is only rating a 40% chance of a positive result - yet we all (me included) are in the when and not if camp regarding a positive outcome.

So my point is that I am confused as on one hand we nearly all sit on the board almost assuming good results (with a little nagging fear we are wrong) yet expect something so likely to multiply the sp on its occurrence….

Personally I have a 950p target here but I think that will be achieved through a takeover. I think being granted EUA, announcing contracts and sales etc will all contribute to the drive upwards but positive P3 will in my opinion most likely add 40-50%. Don’t forget there will be people not as invested as we are in this that have already penciled in the RNS day as the day they sell and this will in itself have a drag on any rise.

All my opinion and obviously I would love to be wrong as I have significant £ here but also feel expectations should be managed.

Loving this new blue font we are using to show our share price in. Who says having a marketing man in the top seat isn't worth it.

Hopefully we will start using red font for our invoices to the DHSC soon.....

Really frustrating there is no way of streaming the AGM assuming it Is not just voting… SP taking a small knock 30 mins in and paranoia kicks in that things are being discussed that only those there are party to. Hope not but still given the trend of these things now being streamed it would have been good to watch.

I have just re-watched Septembers presentation where RM showed recruitment in patients had grown to 100 a month across Jul & Aug and then dropped to 80 in Sept. He reasoned that they had expected growth to continue rather than decline and if it had they could have reported data by end of the year.

There were 120 patients left to recruit so let's say rather than 80 in Sept he had hoped for 120. That would have left 80 needed and if growth had continued then he may reasonably have hoped for 140 or so in Oct which means we would have recruited last patient in 18th/19th Oct (as we would have only required the first 80 of the 140).... So my back of a fag packet assumptions suggest that RM believed data pre Dec 31st was possible if we finished recruitment around 18th/19th October.... We actually finished on 11th Nov so 24 days later. It is therefore safe to argue that any time from 24th Jan onwards the results should/ve arrive/d assuming they would have arrived by year end had recruitment maintained the original trajectory.... I would suggest any delay from now is not a delay caused by the slowing of patient recruitment but rather a slower analysis of the data than anticipated... I have been quite vocal (more on Twitter than here) that Jan was unrealistic and Feb/March more likely but having considered the above I would now be very surprised if results are not in the next fortnight.

Also - the following slide outlined the steps they would take should results be good. The first step was apply for EUA in US which we assume they have not done unless confidential sharing of prelim results has taken place but I suspect EUA application goes on public record.... The steps after (bringing in 3rd parties, Looking at distribution etc) are all recognisable steps that they seem to be taking already...

I will now be joining the rest of you on eagerly refreshing my screen at 7.02am

I thought we already knew it worked? It’s contracts to sell it we are a little short of?

Are we not in a close period? Decide how livid you would be if it had been a sell before answering. Makes me wonder

A) if the directors are party to results. They must not be to allow share dealing but that p1sses over the theory that they do know hence the recruitment.

B) we are further from results day than we think… surely it does not look good for a director share purchase on a Friday and then a company changing RNS on Monday. Again, before answering just do a check with yourself how it would feel if a sell and then Monday there was bad news about trial.

Did I imagine a while ago that we were saying we would go down the royalty route? I took that as we would hand manufacturing and distribution over to third party and take the significant % royalty? The fact it looks like we are trying to build out global logistics suggest otherwise?

At what point does it become the best strategy to issue a 140p per share special divi thereby taking our cash reserves to 0 but still a debt free company planning on making another £50m rev (70p per share) this year. Would SP reflect the 140p divi and drop to 35-40p? I am genuinely up for that course of action right now. I would prefer to have 75% of my invested capital returned to me and then own a company that has to stand on its own 2 feet rather than squander £100m on a series of projects to try and impossibly replace the covid revenue we have had the benefit of.

Building blocks, laser focus, sniff, Growing opportunities, building on the experience of the team, sniff, Looking to drive revenue through infectious disease diagnostics (Hint - this is like Tesco CEO saying he is looking to drive revenue through selling groceries), sniff, Really exciting opportunities, Building our strategies, sniff, leveraging our position, becoming customer focused, sniff..... Management waffle, management waffle, sniff.

Could literally have been a generic template for any CEO waffle. It's like when you are told to think of specific examples for interview questions but instead just regurgitate the template answer with no specifics.

Very depressing. The £100m cash for a company who is valued at £135m and will probably make another £35m from the back end of covid is what keeps me here but the idea that this is worth more than 350p per share is far fetched

I have to agree with Harchris that after the end to the year we have had since the £100m was guided I am amazed we have come slightly under as opposed to over. Admittedly I knew we were unlikely to have smashed guidance as that would have necessitated an RNS I believe but even so….

I also noted a point made either here or on Twitter that the stock we wrote off will have probably been sold given the international demand in last 3 months but no mention here of gaining a credit for that.

Most annoyingly was the opening 2 paragraphs. Have you ever seen so much meaningless management waffle thrown in? That’s how I talk to my boss in my 1-1 if I have actually just been trading stocks and watching Netflix rather than working. I can’t believe the radio silence and wait has not yielded at least something worth waiting for at the end.

Non covid rev - they try to big this up using percentages. 14% this years be 5% last year!! However 14% of 95 is £13m and 5% of 270 is £13.5m so I believe we have slightly less non covid revenue this year?

The positives- well just the one but it is a biggie. As mentioned elsewhere. We have £100m in the bank in cash and are valued at around £170m so £70m enterprise value - even if we are just making £15m a year rev on a 40% ebit then the £70m undervalues us.

So despite my anger at this update I still think we are undervalued (but not worth the 600p target I had in my spreadsheet before today).

ATB

Exactly what i thought RT

Is our rev now 120 because of contract win…. If so what was it before as I would have hoped close to this without. Or is our rev 120 and now we have this contract with 720 over 6 months (120 a month) very unclear.

ATB

When we did 500% in one day on the back of P2 that was in part because people were surprised by the results… in fact the fact it did 500% indicates that as a collective, investors felt there was a 20% chance of p2 success…? Individually you may not have done but normally if 5-1 odds are offered it is because there is a 1 in 5 chance of the event happening.

Which brings me to now… you only have to read this board and Twitter etc that this time (P3) we are all pretty sure that it is going to work. Granted not 100% but not many are seeing this as a “long shot”. In fact I think FinnCap have stated 70% confidence and that was before Activ2 success etc. I guess my point is that whilst it is great having a collective confidence in success does this not rule out such an incredible SP growth upon having the positive news confirmed? No doubt it will go up but realistically by how much? If the investing world is attributing a 70% likelihood then realistically a +45% jump on news is all we should expect. Obviously a nice pay day but many (me included) have £9/£10 as a target sp. Maybe this target is achievable but it feels more like a successful EUA or commercial sales or takeover is how we will see the biggest multiples. I worry that people are expecting another manic Monday on p3 results but it is the fact that everyone already has this expectation that means it very likely won’t be so manic as we hope.

As someone with a significant 5 figure investment in this I would love to hear reasonable counter arguments as to why in a matter of days I can pay off my mortgage but I am beginning to manage my expectations a little more.

I have 950p as a target but would not 100% sell
If we got there without a takeover. The best price this ever hits will be the takeover price. I will also lack the discipline to not top slice but need to make sure I don’t top slice too cheaply and then more importantly don’t buy back in at a higher price with fomo. Done that before.

I am astonished that todays RNS has not exploded the sp. Clearly the management team will by now have an idea of p3 top line findings and I don’t think they would be signing these partnerships if results weren’t looking good.

I think we will briefly anchor at 0.65 for a while when the 0.5 warrants churn just like we have been at 0.3 for the 0.2 warrants. But I have 2.25p as my ambitious 12 month target and 1.3 for 6 months.

This share has gone from being a side punt to 2nd biggest holding for me.

1. The fact the company now believes it is in a position to pay salaries as opposed to share remuneration should tell us all about current cash flow over last few months L.

2. The fact that the senior people in the business have opted to continue receiving shares which can’t be sold for 12 months should tell us their conviction in the medium term sp prospects.

Happy shareholder here

I love the idea that someone held on to shares worth 0.36 all morning, then sold them at 0.28/9 around middayish and are now looking at an SP 0f 0.33 30 mins later..... Ha ha

those who have waited for final results (from June 2021) to sell need to step away from stocks and shares. Anyone could see that june 21 results were not going to be great. Personally I have been waiting to get this out of the way before topping up again although I missed the brief sub 0.30 dip so may just stick for now.

They have released the news today so there is only half a trading day before we then get the update on Dec 21 financials which I expect to be a very different tone.

Selling pre today's RNS = fine
Selling after next upbeat RNS (1 trading day away) = fine
Waiting until this afternoon to sell - moronic

BTW someone mentioned a lack of guidance for 2022.... I think this is because they genuinely don't know. It could all plateau from here and 2022 could be underwhelming albeit much better than 2021 or every month could continue to rocket beyond expectations - I suspect we need a few more months to understand the trajectory.

Actually I see we did last years on 16th so if not today, maybe tomorrow. I wonder why the near 6 month gap.

Is there a reason why our last full year statement is 06/20? Surely we should have had 06/21 by now (appreciate that given the last 3 months this will be quite out of date) but not sure what the legal obligation is to how soon after year end we need to report? Cheers