Member Info for Skeletor

I have looked at all the holding notifications from SO since he increased to 12% in March 21. His next notification was September where he had dropped to 9.9% and then not until late Nov when he had gone to 8.8%. There was then quite a bit of regularity to his reductions all the way to now. I was wondering if there was a relationship between volume and % reductions which would allow me to estimate the point he is likely to be 100% out (assuming that is his plan).

The first drop from Sept 21 to Nov 21 was at 8.4m vol per 0.1% decrease. The next drop just a few days later in earlc Dec was at 2.6m vol per 0.1% after that it settled to a really consistent 4.1-4.3m vol per 0.1% reduction all the way through to 18th March. The sharp reduction on 23rd March came at a more dramatic 2.4m vol per 0.1% (I guess as the opportunity was too good a one to miss to sell down further).

If I take the overall average of 3.65m vol per 0.1% reduction then from the 24/03 onwards we would need 73m volume to clear SO out. If we ignore the 23rd March and use 4.4m then we need 87m volume. We have had 19m volume so far (so perhaps he is at 1.5% already). If we slip back to 3m a day and we need another 68m to be "sure" then this is 23 trading days from now....

On the positive side (The negative being that no one in this company should ever open their mouths in public again) the 35m traded volume today (20% of all shares) will have provided an ample opportunity for someone to sell a 3% holding they no longer want. Lets hope all the buys filled SO's needs today so we can move steadily upwards from here.

I've turned it off.

Means nothing to me - not sure who the audience is. This needed 5-6 slides to lay out in laymans terms the commercial relevance to 4D and the timescales, caveats and costs to achieve this. save the 50 slide technical talk for the internal conversations.

I don't watch a shell oils presentation to understand what all the wigets and cogs on the drill does. I watch to learn about the volume of oil they are drilling and the cost per barrel to produce. Not hard, very disappointing (presentation not results)

No that guy makes Duncan look like a world class speaker.

He is literally boring the sell price into submission

Have they not got better presenters than this. Awful.

"IO Io Io Io Io"

Why is it user controlled slides he is garbling on I have no idea where he is at. Give me Alastair Smith smooth talking at Avact any day.

Well I just re read (skim reading mostly) the RNS's from last interim to now.

Really drives home the missed deadlines and lack of transparency when things are off target as well.

The interims last year talked about the £7m raise taking us through to commercialisation by July 2022. That's so depressing - You then go on to read one by one the updates where dates slip by a half or a quarter but this is never underlined to the investor it is often just stated as matter of fact (like telling us something we already know).

The most recent update in Jan this year quotes as looking forward to expanding trials later in the year and vaguely refererences that leading to commercials but not with any certainty and in no way giving any thought to this year.

As I read one after the other there is such a pattern that you can't hep but guarantee that the next interim will list delays and potentially worse case termination of projects.

There is of course a chance that between now and then a big positive piece of progress will be announced but as I said earlier they will not wait for the interims to announce this. If we get to the interims without prior good news I give you a 95% chance that the interim update will further destroy the SP.

I took advantage of being able to get just over 1.6p today to take a third off my holdings. Majority now in SIPP and QFI is now only a couple of percent of PF. It can't hurt me anymore (Except of course by announcing a huge commercial contract and leaving me full of regret :) )

GLA

small caps don't wait until results/AGM's to announce positive news. They announce it as soon as they have it. It is however a point in time when they sometimes are forced to admit to lack of progress etc

Thanks Tiger, Presumably if held in an HL ISA then HL will guide me on what action I need to take?

I don’t get why you think that?

It sounds like despite SAE having acquired Uskmouth from Simec it is now being told to us (in an around about way) that SAE don’t have consent to develop the land (we allegedly 100% own) and are now having to beg our 30% holder to give consent in return for borrowing £2m CLN’s and giving away some of the profit from the project??

No further developments on the real issue which is planning and environmental consent as well as where the money will come from.

Love to be told how I am mis-reading this.

Nearly have hit sell a few time this last few weeks as I aim to derisk my PF from stocks which hinge on a single positive/negative update.

So far the tiny SP has held me back. My gloomy outlook seems more than reflected by the gloomier price. That said, as much as things often seem priced in, experience tells me that when bad news actually lands you often realise that it wasn't priced in by as much as you thought.....

.... and this brings me to my hunch/not too bold prediction.

- Morocco - I think the next update we get will be that this has been shelved. we are a few days from the end of Q1 and the last update hoped to inform us that we had commenced trials in early Q1...

- MSC, I suspect a further delay, Anyone's guess whether it will eventually proceed

- Utah - This one has kept me interested so far as felt like the least fluff in terms of potential for the next announcement to be commercialisation rather than progress of trials etc. I have no sense of whether tomorrow we land a big contract or alternatively we never get anything done.

I suspect any sort of negative update regarding the above will be proceeded by a reminder of how good test results are and may also hint at new avenues of networking and conversations with potential clients.... All at an earlier stage of development than the above.

I am clearly in a negative mood having had pain delivered to my PF by SNG, N4P, AVACT and going further back SAE... I am starting to learn that an opposite to a well known saying is true when it comes to speculative small cap investments.... "No news is good news" does not apply. Small caps thrive on supporting their SP through positive news or spinning neutral news as positively as possible. That's why we have been told 3 times here that MSAR works when being told once would have been ample were this a FTSE listed business. I'm not saying that I no longer invest in small caps but I am saying that if the reason for investment is not supported by either the SOFP or SOPL then it needs to be supported by regular positive updates. Once you are missing all 3 of the above then I think alarm bells should be rung....

... Question is, will I listen to my own advice?

What’s to stop ME selling his pencil case to MOS for £1m next week?

Someone is getting very rich through their association with MOS and it’s not me.

If the company is as confident and strong as has been made out then there should have been no new to offer a 25% discount. Plenty of examples where really strong growth companies are able to get a placing away at just a fraction below sp.

It’s not the placing that bother me. It’s the dishonesty and complete disconnect between what ME says and does.

This placing is 0.04p higher than the last one so not a step change and now the sp will inevitably drop back to the placing price. Really disappointing. Represents about 12% of my pf so I will take another painful hit this morning and seeing as I am no longer a long term investor (I.e. looking for the best opportunity to get out as soon as possible) then I can’t take solace in any plans they may have for this money…..

…. What I will say is that GFIN bod are equally as dishonest/disconnected from reality so that is £250k of the placing down the toilet before we start.

How does ME explain this via his get in the car analogy. So obvious that all his constant ramps via Zak Mir was to push Sp hard in order to get a placing away why else do you so aggressively push the sp so hard and so regularly.

The disconnect here is that the reason given for
Paving is delayed revenue…. Well if the revenue is only delayed and not cancelled and we are saying that without this delay there would not need to be a placing then GFIN should not be raising against equity but simply taking out short term finance to bridge the gap between when the revenue was due and when it will now arrive.

That is basic level 1 balance sheet management. So we are already being lied to.

A lot of good points here but one thing I will point out with regard to p/e measures are that they become less telling when such significant chunks of mkt cap are covered by net cash. In
This case I think (not turned on pc yet) that about 28p of SLP is cash. In my opinion it would be fairer to divide the earnings per share into (98-28=70p). Or put another way…. SLP could afford to pay out a 28p special dividend which would rightly reduce the sp to 70p and solve your p/e quandry.

Point taken though that the same factors pushing up commodity prices could in turn significantly reduce demand for the commodity.

ATB

I agree that we should see a price boost when warrants expire.

All the current 0.5p holders who have had that in their back pocket will be left with a choice to invest now at sub 0.5p or risk being on the sidelines with no safety net that the warrants previously provided.

Plenty will walk away but others will start to buy.

Naive comment incoming…..

If shorts are closing shouldn’t we see a rising share price?

We can’t blame the sp demise on “shorters being in control” but then not see even a slightly blue day when they are allegedly closing. I hope they did not close today as them closing is something I have in my diary as a catalyst for the sp to rise and if that event has now taken place and we are still sub 50p then that is even more depressing.

Fair enough. For my own peace of mind I would be keen for Mark E to advise how much of the 150 is IGS. I take the logic that it is most likely small and if so then that’s great.

Can I just check…..

We were $80k in Nov

We assumed that would organically grow without any further announcements…

We announced a $720k contract over 6 months since

We have announced India (perhaps no revenue yet)

I would have expected monthly revs to be $120k + $80k + any increment of that $80k.

So $200k a month would have been disappointing as suggesting no kick on from the initial Mexico/Brazil revenue. But I seriously am struggling to square the $150k. I only hope that we have taken very little of the $720k and the $70k has largely come from Mexico and Brazil with the newer revenues still to be added.

Any different views? I am glad there is a Q&A later.