Member Info for Skeletor

At £1.50 or even £1 you had to factor in the downstream into the investment thesis, I agree.

At 25p You can in my opinion entirely disregard the downstream and value them at upto to 90p on mining alone.

I would caveat that with any trust issues in the board etc as the reason to be cautious... Fundamentals make this a crazy cheap price but d you trust the board to not run a way with your money? Main market listing maybe gives a small bit of confidence but then how have we got an executive chairman - Not good practice.

As you may be able tell from my back and forth - It is a real dilemma on whether to further top up here. Could seem ridiculous in a years time when we are back at 90p but also may seem fool hardy if the rug gets pulled from under us (Based on my distrust of whether there is robust corporate governance here).

As an aside - I emailed IR about a week ago and had no reply.....

Karlo. Let us worry about FXPO and whether It’s is a good investment from here. You worry about Tekmar and your £1 price target. Good luck.

I’ve been valuing TGR on it mining business alone for some time now. Has no way of valuing the downstream and it was already so undervalued I had no need to factor it in.

We are so cheap and have been since the sub 60p days.

Salinger also calls out rampers… basically anyone who doesn’t mirror their exact opinions.

I imagine in his/her house only their opinion goes… fun to be around!!

Meanwhile regarding QFI I have been amazed at the sp holding up as time ticks by. Like many non revenue AIM stocks it is a gamble more than an investment. Couple of highly positive RNS’s could double your money - silence or announced delays could see the sp bleed out.

FWIW I have a small amount here having briefly been totally out. Used to be my second biggest holding post the 2.7p placing last year (or was it 2020? - I’ll definitely get picked up on that!!) but I have become significantly more risk adverse.

How much of a hard stop was the 30/06 deadline for phase 1 agreement on Utah? Might this have happened but not material news? It’s possible I suppose…. Sometimes though in this environment when pre revenue and a reputation missing dates I think material or not it is the duty of a business like QFI to keep us fully updated.

Once their balance sheet shows a regular increasing operating profit they can go quiet but not till then thanks.

Barking. I upticked your comment after reading the first line. Will now return and read the rest but just though I would mention.

I genuinely think the market is in for a shock when we announce H1 results. Expect it will be with a modest (vs ly but huge be sp) interim divi as well and at that point we will head back up… albeit not to where we should be.

Obviously all caveated by the risk of Russia making huge advances and further damage to infrastructure.

Glengarth. I think too blasé to blame this on market conditions. The constant bleed out here is way in excess of the market decline even if you take the performance post the delays RNS.

In my opinion it is negligent of the board to not address the share price decline. To NOT be raising equity via a placing may normally not constitute material news but it IS material if the reason why your share price is obliterated is that the market expects a placing.

I am pretty angry and am not prepared to shrug this off as "market conditions"

Just another very long winded RNS going into the detail of how they are going to do something over the next few years.

Lots of RNS’s are “how” and not “what” with EQT. You could read that RNS word for word. At the end of reading are you any the wiser about how much £ this news is worth and when you might get those £s?

The 2 types of RNS needed here are 1. Financial close and 2. A clear pathway to how EQT are going to avoid giving cheap equity to Riverfort in 1 months time.

I know they don't need to, but....

Rather than answer the same email umpteen times why doesn't he shore up his share price by either releasing an RNS or an interview saying this? Could so easily be done and would appease a lot of nervous shareholders.

ATB

Which sell is yours then Aldebaran?

The biggest trade all day is £4k and that was around 9am....

Disagree snudge. Those are just lazy sound bites. I was clear in my rational that even if you considered the war to be forever and sales to be halved forever - even then we are undervalued (in my opinion albeit backed by fundamentals)

Only Russia taking control of the mine or I suppose entirely surrounding the distribution to mainland Europe would this sell price (or admittedly lower) be justified.

To think this sp is a fair reflection is to believe it is more than likely that Russia will take control of the mines. I’m assuming you don’t think this is likely else you would not see long term opportunity here.

ATB

Appreciate Steady. I am not selling (at anywhere near this SP) and therefore hope it all comes through.

1 years into the future was supposed to be 10 years into the future!!!

SP is crazy here. Even on a $90 per kg price and 50% of the volume sold to last year (I believe we are circa 80% at the moment but 1-3 kilns out of 4 might suggest it drops to 50%) and on a p/e of 5 I still have the sp at 220p.

Iron ore won't always be cheap, sales won't always be half but even if this was the new norm then 200p would be a better valuation.... Unless you believe Russia is going to take all of Ukraine? Always a % chance I suppose but this is currently priced as if 80% likely!!?

Even an errant missile would not justify this drop - as stated we don't need all the Kilns so probably would manage with some infrastructure damage - its not like we wouldn't quickly fix it.

Talk of dividend being removed - I doubt they would have been so bullish in the last few month (circa 10% of mcap paid out) only to cancel completely now. We are not in financial distress - If we were we wouldn't keep donating to the Ukraine relief fund (this is the actions of a company that feels guilty about making profit in a country struggling and politically paves the way to pay out profits to shareholders without criticism - call my cynical)

Anyway I added more today - I see FXPO as a hedge to my oil holdings. If war continues #JSE and #SEPL do well, if war ends then FXPO SP rise would hopefully negate any decrease in oil price - assuming the sanctions on Russia were lifted which I think are unlikely in all scenarios other than complete and utter u turn from Putin (not happening).

ATB

Try - What makes you have a forecasted valuation Mcap of £400m for a company that if they hit their own forecasts will mace circa £30m rev this year and a single digit £m Ebit loss? It is not 2021 anymore where companies get valued on their 1 years into the future profit targets on a P/E of 10.

When the interims come out later this summer and they haven't advanced from LY in revenue growth but claim it is H2 weighted and reiterate there will be an EBITDA loss I think we will see an SP lower than today (no matter how unfair that may be).

I do think that early 2023 if we get a positive trading update and we are looking at a first half of EBIT positivity as well as a better market that there is huge potential here but by that I am thinking a return to the early 2s (£180-£200m mcap). It is also very believable that this will one day be 5p or more but if your investment thesis has this as a 12 month target then you have based your investment decisions on poor foundations in my opinion.

I obviously hope that the SP stagnates/falls back - partly to make me feel better about my decision and partly to offer me an opportunity in the future to change my decision. I recognise that by being out I ma rising missing out on 30%-50% gains but am safe guarding against 50% losses (back to 0.5 in the short term) - This also excludes potential gains I make with redeployed capital elsewhere (or losses I suppose!)

I have sold.

Gutted I got greedy and didn't take the high 2s 18 months ago but as I hovered over the sell button I just needed to remind myself how I felt when it went to 0.45/0.5 a few days ago. I would have kicked myself if I let that happen again. Likewise I will probably watch it go into the 1s now and kick myself for that too...

I do think we are woefully short of financial close vs projects starting - sounds to me like the onslaught of news is going to be more projects starting as opposed to my preferred cash in bank type news... I also suspect that we will take a hit on our loan with Riverfort converting to shares in August and I have been involved in a few too many death spiral finance stocks recently (I am sure this is too dramatic for what will happen here but I would expect the SP weakening if the loan converts to cheap shares).

I also note from the FY Results that the aim for 2022 FY was a "reduction in EBITDA losses" as opposed to a first year of EBITDA positive as many tout on here. Not sure how widely that got picked up and the SP rose on the day of Final results but I have not been able to get that out of my mind - Especially when 2021 was at one point hoped to be EBITDA positive.

On the positive side I think the board are pretty good and there is some (very) long term growth to be had here.

Good luck

Steady Aim Fire.

Fair point but the distrust from me is the bullishness of the podcasts/ramps from ME vs the physical results in our bank account. granted there will be lag from a contract being signed to cash being generated which is why I am waiting to see this cash. Until I see the cash ME, to me, sounds like a wideboy estate agent and not a statesman like CEO.

I am not saying that I believe he is lying and we definitely will not see significant revenue growth (and I hope EBIT growth) but I am saying that I (and inferred by the SP not many others) are taking his words as verbatim until we see it on a balance sheet.

If the CEO of Legal and General said they had signed a contract forecast worth 2 X Mcap I wouldn't wait for the money from that contract to appear. I would buy more shares straight away. But I am not buying here on the back of words.... maybe as you have succinctly argued it is a irrational mistrust but it must be one shared by the majority otherwise "the biggest deal in the 20 year history of the company" would have had a more transformative effect on the SP (currently -12% since RNS) - regardless of wider market.

The fact that the biggest deal in the 20 year history has not moved the sp when a few £100k per annum deals on Livescores a while back took us up nearly 3X tells us one of the following:

1. No one trusts the bullish nature of the board (ME) anymore until we see cold hard cash in the audited financial statements/balance sheet.

2. High notional £ targets are less desirable right now than modest contracted income (was the other way round in H1 2021)

3. Investors are currently unwilling to commit to AIM market in general meaning good news is muted and bad news is amplified.

I think it is all 3 and in that order. Start showing us some significant revenue. Reassure us through financial statements that we are EBIT positive (meaning any raises are not working cap but for more growth). Don't raise any more money unless significantly higher than previous raise - Once consistent evidence of this then I agree the company could multiply to many times more than todays valuation....

There was no indication as to which month we may start to benefit from a portion of this £14m was there? Is it instant or another few months until we launch?

ATB

Would that be so hard to put out in an RNS or podcast/Proactive interview if true??

Presumably worthy of an RNS.