Member Info for Skeletor

I can’t see any references to Oleg Soloshchanskiy being sanctioned? Can anyone help here?

Also assuming this is the seller then at 5.5% we have quite a few TR1s before we can declare seller cleared. Not seen the one where he dips below 5% yet?

Definitely agree that buying towards the end of a distressed seller is a great way to make gains but need more evidence that this this is that.

Not great is it? Let’s be fair. If we had an II growing it’s holding we would taking a big positive out of it. Given that it is only fair to be mildly concerned at the reduction.

The news here isn’t the dividend being postponed….. it’s the long list of reasons why! Gulp.

No problem with placing at 5p but 8p warrants feel a bit painful. I hope to be multiples of this in much less than 3 years so one day when they get exercised it will be a bit of a kicker.

Last years final results didn’t give any post period info and neither was there a Q1 trading update. I really hope that these commodity plays make exception this year and we get Q1 updates.

Well, like TGA, what will sort this out is the board coming out swinging with a decent final divi followed by a huge special interim divi for first 6 months 2022.

Were we supposed to get our divi today?

Nice to get a broker upgrade to 140p but can anyone on here let me know what I am missing? My valuation is considerably higher but clearly the market and even Jeffries disagree... why?

I am expecting roughly 14-15p EPS for 2021 which a P/E of 10 would agree with Jeffries but that was achived at $70 oil price and lower production than now.

I know we can't value the business as if oil is forever going to be circa $100 but at a $28 cost per barrel and production increasing to minimum 15500 BOPD I am getting huge 2022 net profit figures. Even assuming they repeat 2021 operating costs and capex which they flag as being "high" the free cash flow is immense. If oil did hold at $100 I had 350p target. Even if oil drifts back to $70 I have an SP of 270 (when factoring in the net cash we will have).

Clearly the market disagrees. All this is public information: POO, Prod fcasts, Cost of production etc.

Really want to hear other views on this. Have I got this wrong or is it TGA all over again.?

Wow. Impressive. When you watch the news each night it’s hard to imagine that this is possible. Well done to the team on the ground.

Not the RNS I was expecting. Thought we were going to be given the presentation info this morning?

All positive though.

Nope... I've tried everything, contrast, brightness but still the % vs the day is a weird blue colour. I will have to take my monitor to the repair shop tomorrow if it persists..... Still, I notice the decimal point moved 1 digit to the left since this morning so I know the pixels are working fine.

Weirdly volume isn't huge considering the rise - So perhaps not shorts closing - which is even better as they still have to close!

TheOrns of you are taking what Jason expects as 100% what will happen (or 50% for that matter) then you should be lumping your life savings into this stock as it will for sure multiply if even just one happens before 30th April. The reason why this is 1.7p is because people have leant to wait for results rather than promises.

I don't think Jason is a liar and he seems a genuine guy but he is definitely an optimist and possibly a little naïve.

I was surprised (see previous posts) that Morocco wasn't canned in the interims. I still think Morroco isn't happening and we look a little desperate still clinging on to the whiff of a contract.

I am willing to believe that MSC remain interested (albeit not really at their front of their mind like it is for us) so I hope one day that this gets signed but not holding my breath that they will meet their April deadline.

Utah seems the most likely to me so perhaps this is where we will next hear of progress (of the pen & paper variety).

Phil - I understand you are annoyed that some less informed investors/traders on here have said they are concerned about a placement when you say that this should already be known and you are not surprised.

Given you were fully aware in your own mind that a placing would be needed and likewise you perhaps incorrectly assumed the wider investment community also knew this then why do you think people are stupid not investing now rather than wait for a placing?

I guess the question isn’t “is DDDD a good long term investment “ but rather “will the placing price be more or less than 48p (yesterdays close)”. What the market is telling us today is that they believe it will be less. What’s more the inherent issue with now everyone knowing a placing is coming is that a vicious cycle begins with the placing dragging the SP and in turn the depresses SP decreasing the placing price. The best placings take the market by shock are not expected and are at a higher price than any previous placing. They also ideally offer an II a chance to buy a big wedge when to do so on the open market would not be possible therefore not much discount is required (in effect the discount is not having to pay a premium on open market). Unfortunately we know that there was a certain 12% of the company available to any II who was interested inc Merck btw and inexplicably they have all just been sold onto the open market.

If no II wanted to offer SO a knockdown price for his shares then I consider we will have to offer a tasty discount in the placing.

Just a shame that the big sum raised a year ago didn’t get us the leg up on the SP.

If you can’t understand why some think there may be a cheaper entry than today then you are wearing blinkers.

Obviously the risk of sitting on the sidelines waiting for cheaper entry is missing some game changing news.

What are the big ticket items in the £7m expenses do we think? £19m on research is a direct cost to the business in achieving its aims - Great, big tick….. but Outside of research what is the £7m for?

Phil. You are acting as if there are no surprises here. Where prior to today coukd I have seen the monthly cash burn through 2021 and the current bank balance? The incredibly short cash runway is a surprise to me. Maybe that is a lack of DD if you are able to point me to a historic RNS that would have told me.

I get that placing as are part of drug development companies and welcome them when for the right reason but each placing should always be for the amount of money needed to achieve milestones that mean the next placing is at a considerable premium to the last. This looks unlikely here.

Point about directors being heavily invested is a strong one and a big part of why I am here. Certainly can’t blame anyone for now waiting for placing before entering as often that will give a 20-30% discount.

ATB

Anyone know what the terms of the CLN are? I find it weird that this is not included in the RNS.

Having read that I am left perplexed why the loss is £55m when the only breakout they give on this is £19m research and £8m expense…. What did the other £28m go on (I am guessing it is non cash as the 27m spend comes closer to explaining the placing money plus end of year balance)

I don’t think anyone can instantly call someone a clown or deramper if they are raising the genuine question of cash runway having been told we had £15m at the start of the year and spending £27m(if that is all we spent) last year then we are either drastically reducing our research costs (the amount of pipeline does not look like we are) or we will need further funding soon. I am not sure if the Oxford loan facility would even cover it and not sure if we are hitting milestones (if one of them is share price performance then we definitely aren’t)

It would be good for one of the more regular clued up DDDD contributors to address these concerns with a rational clear argument (or perhaps agreement) rather than shout “Clown”.

Thanks

I suspect peace talks going well helps the shares that crashed when war broke out but will drag on stocks that have "done well" out of the situtation. Price of coal will presumably normalise over time if peace is assured although my investment thesis has coal at $140 so I would only revaluate if that started to look less likely.