Member Info for simon1367

JonHarris, having endured your ramping ramblings for weeks, why should anyone believe your claim you've only lost 10% on this stock? So your average price was about £7.25......yeah right, give me a break. This stock is down 30% in the last month. You were ramping ASOS when it was considerably higher. Quite frankly, I don't believe a word you say. I think it's a disgrace you have been trying to manipulate people on here with o.t.t positives. Either you're jesting with your comments today or, as I suspect, you will continue ramping.

JPM cuts price target to £12.60, and as a result share drops another 3%. It's going to be a shaky / volatile time running up to the results which are due on the 12th October.

Shorts still amount to a terrible 8.6% of the stock. Fira please explain your comment about shorters exiting! I can see no sign of it. This company is the biggest shorting share on the entire exchange. For the time being, this share is going no-where. Sorry to sound so gloomy but the next year will be decisive. I still believe the founder will consider a private buyout even if it means at say a 75% premium. An opportunist move that would understandably anger a lot of people.

A consensus forecast for ASOS I received today from a Sanlam owned website
2022 EPS estimate falling from UK£0.05 to UK£0.02 per share.
Revenue forecast steady at UK£4.02b.
Net income forecast to shrink 18% next year vs 4.0% growth forecast for Online Retail industry in the United Kingdom .
Consensus price target down from UK£14.38 to UK£12.95.
Share price was relatively steady at (average) UK£6.89 over the past week.
I would say this is a fairly neutral stance but it shows the EPS and margin pressures the company is under. Price targets are often plucking figures out of the air but at least this one looks reasonably realistic, if the company can get through the winter months without another need for a cash injection. In that respect I reckon there's a 50/50 chance of that happening.

JonHarris, your daily ramping and sundry drivel is becoming tiresome. Companies often make financial statements prior to results coming out, the only difference on this occasion was that ASOS directors it seems unwisely were selective in the people they talked to rather than publicising a general statement. The case for, as you put it ''a massive takeover opportunity'' is weak, given all the unknowns in the next twelve months. Mike Ashley, as can be demonstrated by his present interest in Gieves & Hawkes, usually only enteres the fray when someone is close to liquidation / administration.
Your over the top headlines everyday seems to have an air of desperation. As for ClaireSmith, you presumably are not an accountant. You keep on emphasising the high revenue figure (which, by the way is slowing down) as a case for a massive re-rating of the share or a takeover bid. Highly unlikely. I once again remind you that high revenue means sweet FA if costs and margins are higher and lower respectively.

ClaireSmith, surely you know that Mike Ashley is a vulture who only pokes his nose (beak) into a situation when a company looks like going under. That is not Asos. He has a strategic holding but that is it, Asos, by the way, cannot afford to be more agressive in the market as, at present (last couple of months) they are barely profitable. Margins are probably under 1% which is not sustainable. Todays price increase is positive because I think it demonstrates a lot of the bad news is already built into the price. Having said that, I have don't have a great deal of confidence in the top management given their recent apparent selective divulgence of information to friendly analysts. That is unprofessional and I would argue possibly illegal under company law. I really hope this is a turning point and that there are no unpleasant surprises in the official results, probably due in October. A lot of things could still happen. There's still a significant amount of shorters and they have ways of manipulating things, so the slightist hint of more wrongdoing will see this share on a downward trend again.

Ibstock23....spot on. Higher revenue is meaningless if costs are punitive and margins are negligible.
Changeofpace........what makes you think they are still profitable? They may make about £15 -£25 million to the 31/8/22 but I reckon in the last few months they've gone into loss making territory. Margins are miniscule, some say less than 1%. That is unsustainable. On balance I believe the share will slowly recover but I still wouldn't rule our a cash call.

Amazed you can find positivity on this share when it's dropped over 4% this morning when all the indices are up!
At least you're acknowledging that the shorters are manipulating the stock, but that's nothing new. They've been doing that for months. It is however encouraging that shorts are down from 6.8% to 6.11%, which might see FEVR jump into third place of the highest shortest stock! The market is nervous about results which are due I believe in October. Not a lot is going to change in the interim period.

JonHarris, regarding the daily ramping; please give it a rest. You're repeating yourself over and over again and it's becoming unbearable. What are you trying to achieve? If it's in the hope that it will help the SP rise, you're failing dismally!

west6809....I concur. ASOS has been a well run company but it started to wilt a bit with the lack of a CEO for a long time and new relatively untested people taking over. I think on balance ASOS will get through this crisis, though the next eighteen months will be testing. I will assess things once the next results are out. I'll probably average down if there are at least a couple of positives on the horizon. I'm most reluctant to sell out at this low level. However, there is a case made by some that if you sell now, one could utilise the proceeds in a better way with a company who is in favour and who has quicker growth potential . It basically comes down to whether I'm prepared to wait at least a year for a chance to recoup a large chunk of my money. I'm sitting on the fence at the moment.

Paradisewanted, you're almost as bad as JonHarris's daily ramping. You must but be on that same land called cloud cuckoo. The share price goes up a bit to £6.81 .....LOL. Have you actually monitored the daily trends for the last six months. Up for one or two days, and then down even further for a few days. All because the shorts have it. At the risk of sounding like a parrot, this is the third largest shorted stock on the entire exchange. And there's a very good reason for that.

No wonder Mike Ashley has a 3% holding. Why on earth would a bidder come in now, when the knife continues to fall? Ashley will hope to pick up the pieces afterwards. I hope the scavenger is wrong.

I still think Asos will recover. However it has further to fall. The way that senior people in ASOS have been slipping out info to friendly analysts is unprofessional and, quiet frankly, very dodgy. Their experience is ls clearly lacking.

I really hope there are no further nasty surprises, because if there are, this share is going to drop south of £5. Then I will take a view as to whether to average down or simply write off my losses.. All depends on the final end of year statement.

ShoreCapital Brokers view: ''This news comes after a series of negative updates: the announcement of the CFO's departure, the CMA launch of an investigation on 'green' claims, and suppliers' complaints regarding cancelled orders. It also adds to the pain of being exposed to mid-market brands and demographics particularly affected by the cost-of-living squeeze. Whilst market expectations in aggregate have not necessarily been adjusted, we would be very worried about the basis for an orderly market in the group's shares as discussions and research notes around forecasts were evident from deliberately selective conversations with analysts. As a result, we would take a very dim view of the possibility, never mind the reality, of such behaviour and reiterate our 'sell' rating."

Is the divulgence of certain senstive information to selective analysts legal?
Also, the company is forecast to post EPS of about 0.05p compared to £1.29 last year.
Profit margins are estimated at 0.8%, down from what was an already low of 4.7%.

Unfortunately I now have misgivings about the way certain senior figures are running this company. A price of a fiver now seems realistic.

I hope you're right JonHarris but I'm doubtful as ASOS margins are negligible. As I've said before, higher revenue doesn't always convert into bigger profit. Also, the big shorters generally know more than you do. They are more often right than wrong. Roharps - -- most of them actually won't 'get caught', some will but it will be mostly the amateurs without all the information to hand that the major shorteres have.
ClaireSmith, you're still clutching at straws. I'm not quite sure what the share price was when you started ramping the share, but I think it was at least £10 higher, maybe £15 higher than now, with all the same positives you were giving!!!
Kershin23--- I tend to agree with your summary. Just a matter of time (providing they get through the next year.
IseStocks23--- I concur. Spot on in my view.

Jon Harris, there's simply no point in trying to ramp up the shares every day. The shorts have it. The figure is still around 6.5% and I believe the third highest on the stock exchange. Daily you will see how the market works. It's like one step forwards and two steps back. The shorters are having a field day with this one.
Oh, and the previous profit figure annually WERE going well.. This year I predict a 90% drop to south of £20m.
And that cash in the bank is true. But they must be eating through it very quickly. There comes a time when increased revenue is meaningless if costs are too high and margins are too thin.

Jon Harris........Mike Ashley's strategic holding does speak volumes, ...but not in the way you think. As you know, he is an opportunist who likes to pounce when the going gets tough for a company. He is waiting in the wings in case the company flounders. He generally targets 'financially distressed' companies. Hopefully ASOS gets through these difficult times without this vulture entering the fray.

Inve5t.....not could go to but will go to. Below 30p in my view. The shorters at above 8% are murdering this stock. We're now in a sort of self perpetuating fall and there is no sign of shorters diminishing. The energy crisis will certainly exascerbate the situation. Lots of retail companies like this will contract in size. I still reckon Kamani will be tempted to do a private buy-out arguing that the market doesn't appreciate the company's potential.

Topshares1.......I think dogger already alluded to a figure of 'zero' a few days back. If the crisis here gets worse (and it looks like it will) these shares are going nowhere this year especially as I believe a profit warning will occur in October. If that happens I forecast below a fiver. I suspect Asos are now losing money and that profit for its financial year end will be less than £20m. I hope not as that drop, given it's costs will take it into official year end losses next year.
However, long-term growth opportunities look promising, but the near-term hurdles are definitely starting to muddy the picture. How ASOS navigates the oncoming economic crisis will make or break the group's long-term potential.

The Kamanis must now be seriously thinking of a private buy out. That would anger long term holders but delight newcomers.

Think you got your arithmetic wrong there paradise. 94892 shares cost about £795997, not over£3 million !!!
Nevertheless, a significant investment by two of the directors. I would oint out that directors do this for normally two reasons. Either they see it as a good buying opportunity, but equally they are often advised to do it to bolster the share price....eg, ''if the directors are buying, they must know something we don't'' ; that is often misleading. I'll let everyone decide for themselves as to why they purchased !
Claire.......higher revenue does not mean profit. Margins at the moment are wafer thin. I reckon they are presently trading at a loss. However if Asos get through the next twelve months, then hopefully an improvement will be seen