Member Info for simon1367

ClaireSmith......hope the waccy baccy is helping.

Gredpeck7....I beg to differ. Whilst your scenario of buying when weak may be valid, it is equally valid that one of the best and safest ways to make an investment is when a share has momentum. Savvy investors often buy during a time when a share is well on its way with an upward trend.

Grimrip24....I am sorry you see it that way. I can assure you I'm a shareholder. After averaging down, my book cost is about £12k. The valuation today is £4.9k....a loss of approx 59%. Average cost per share is now £12.63.

If you read my comments, I have often added that I can see Asos being strong enough to see through this difficult time (and in a better position than Boohoo).....hence me still holding the shares. However, I am a realist not a fantasist. Last week I put my reasons for being disenchanted with events over the last year and I feel my criticisms are warranted. When I see shorts at now over 8%, the second highest on the exchange, I tell it as I see it.

Conversely there people here who want to clutch at straws and dream up takeovers within two weeks, and come out with other ludicrous comments. Clearly not accountants, ClaireSmith and others make the common mistake of equating high and increasing revenue with profit. It doesn't and ASOS are trading at a loss.

I'm sorry you feel I've been overly negative. I would love to have been proven wrong but facts are facts, rather than heresay and hope. The market reads things 6 -12 months ahead. With a really tough six month trading period ahead (and the shorters see this), I see Asos drifting into the £4 - £5 zone. For the brave, it might just be a good time to buy in for good medium term prospects. If it goes below £5, I may well average down again by a few grand to bring my cost per share to below £10. Like most people here, I only put in what I'm prepared to lose but hopefully it won't come to that.

Paulleydee....Your last comment via the BBC report fails to highlight that Mike Ashley's Frasers (Mash holdings) now owns not only 4.3% of Hugo Boss shares directly, but holds a further 28.5% through 'options', giving it a 32.8% interest. Now that is clearly an interesting situation. He is either 'gambling' on making a profit via derivatives or he has serious plans to take them over.
However with Asos, I suspect it is just a strategic holding with a view to initially doing some business with them (using their online presence), but at the same time being in a position to pursue them at some point if trade gets worse.

ClaireSmith...Your earlier comment, ''I would expect a takeover bid within the next couple of weeks before the Xmas shopping'' and your further comment, ''hopefully we should see a takeover bid, be happy for £2b offer''. With respect, what planet are you living on? Asos has a current capitalisation of about a quarter of that! For goodness sake please stop the amateurish ramping

Additionally MA is not usually in the business of taking control until a company becomes financially distressed and in danger of going into administration. The shorters once again have their claws into this share. They still see some more profit to be made for a while yet. This additional 2.19% he's bought is merely strategic and strengthens his position if the company do worse than expected. Today's lack of much reaction to his adding a bit more says it all.

I definitely don't see Ashley moving in to put in an offer in the near future. As you say West6809, he generally knows what he is doing. He often builds a minority stake in a businesses for strategic purposes. In the case of Asos, if their improved model suceeds his holding will appreciate and his trading partnership relationship will also improve. Conversely if Asos gets into further difficulty he will be there ready to pounce if it were ever to go into administration. He likes a bargain and a bet. I reckon he sees it as a win/win situation for him providing no-one else steps in like they did with Debenhams. He will bide his time. I would also be interested to see how much he paid for the initial 2.91% he has been holding for quite some time.

I forgot to add that M.Ashley is not your typical investor. He's also a betting man, sometimes out to make a quick profit. Not too long ago he lost £150 million on Debenhams, so investing £25m in ASOS is peanuts to him.

Mike Ashley's son-in-laws' decision to increase their holding though their MashHoldings company is a positive development. The report doesn't say precisely what percentage they hold but implies it is now above 5% which I believe is the point where it has to be announced. Bear in mind though that MASH has already been holding nearly 3% for a long time. He's clearly solidifying a strategic holding, as well as averaging down!
What is of equal interest is the shorters increasing substantially to 7.52%. That makes ASOS the second biggest shorted share on the stock exchange, behind BooHoo at an astonishing 9.8%. This does not bode well for either share in the short term. Ashley is clearly looking further ahead. Initially, I think this has a little furhter to fall after perhaps a liitle jump on Monday. However it would be nice if the shorters got stung.

The Adidas situation has once again triggered a downward trend. Yes, a lot of the bad news is built into the price but unfortunately every time a retailer reports precarious times, we will see a drop. Also I notice today a great many sells at £5 which is clearly a stop loss for many, no doubt many just calling it a day.....which again puts pressure on the SP.

I've read a few Investment Bank reports today. I get worried when the word 'survival' enters the narrative.
However, for the brave, I think this is the time to buy if you're prepared to invest for a couple of years (and accept you'll probably be asked for new money within a year), or in the hope of a takeover or merger (in my view unlikely). Asos have got to be a leaner fitter operation. I hope their new business model is sufficiently robust.

Ryanf....with respect, it is hardly surprising I have been expressing negativity on this share in recent months,(even though I'm a shareholder) more out of frustration over schoolboy errors than anything else.
Up until recently, we've had one of the biggest online retailers without a CEO for what seemed like a lifetime....during a period of turmoil where the company required firm leadership and instead we got a rudderless ship. Then we had the news of information being leaked to selective friendly analysts (illegal in my opinion). Then a 50% reduction in credit insurance by Allianz trade that shareholders only got to hear about through a leak to the press. Then we heard they had stocked up massively (too much in my view, given the fickle nature of the fashion world). The result? An inevitable amount of 'stale/dead' stock leading, I seem to recall, of a write down of £100m? .....which I wouldn't be surprised will increase. No wonder the shorters have had a field day.
I have consistently said that I feel the long term prospects are good if they can get through the next year or so and have a coherent plan. The present people in charge have yet to prove themselves. One of the rules of the game (usually) is never to sell at the bottom. That really hurts, hence I will probably bide my time with the share and cross my fingers that the recovery is quicker than some predict.

Lsestocks23....your comments are pretty much spot on. I doubt whether that CEO has ever heard of the SIx Sigma principles of business Lol. The only thing I would agree with in recent comments is that the market does generally view things somewhat ahead of the 'present' and has built in a lot of the gloom....and as such this price could be seen as towards the bottom, although I stand to be corrected. I said that at £10 !!!

Hi Ryanf, it's not so much the 'price targets' that Liberum and other Investment Banks give that interest me. Like you I take them with a large pinch of salt as often they verge on being in fantasyland territory.
No, it is however the actual sentiments of their comments that caught my eye. Quite frankly I can't see too much there in their assessment that I disagree with. Which poses the question whether I should be averaging down for the final time or simply holding on and crossing everything in the hope of a medium term recovery.

ClaireSmith.....Your last comment: ''and there are a lot of very things to be happy about as an investor in Asos''
I'm glad you're happy. However I, like a lot of others, am very unhappy about the negative developments over the last year or so, which has resulted in an 81% drop in share price this year, and in my case a loss of several thousand pounds. Yeah, I'm deleriously happy.....NOT.

You keep on about higher revenues; a totally pointless argument if one is continuously selling items at a loss and increasing debt. It has already said it will announce a further half year loss at the end of February. The only question is how high the losses will be. A cash call by the spring is pretty much on the cards in my view. They will simply wait in the hope of a spike in the share price before announcing it in order to maximise the proceeds.

Retailer 'growth stock' NEXT have dropped by 1% in the last five years. They are facing equally difficult times but are 'managing' to reduce debt. Conversely, ASOS (apparently a growth stock) have dropped 91% in the same period and are increasing debt. This in my view shows the difference in quality of management.

This statement for Liberum Investment bankers says it all : "The current valuation reflects high debt, negative free cashflow, executive risk for this 'new' strategy and the fact we remain firmly in a downgrade cycle. We move to a 'sell' and lower our target price to reflect estimate cuts and a concerning lack of detail in the analyst presentation."

It appears that the bad news has already been built into the present suppressed share price. I am a little surprised at the jump in share price this morning. As I suspected, they have been (and still are) trading at a loss for the past few months.
A pre-tax loss of £32m from a profit of £177m. On an adjusted basis, profits have fallen to £22m in the 12 months to August 31 2022, in line with recent lowered expectations, and down from £193.6m last year.
Call me cynical if you like, but I suspect the 'cash call' will come further down the line (maybe the spring) by which time they hope the share price will have improved, whereupon they'll screw the shareholders for a bit more and dilute the share price once again.

Jamesss: An interesting viewpoint but somewhat over optimistic in my opinion. Some decent positives from you but a lot of them are some distance ahead. The fuel crisis isn't going away anytime soon. The Russian situation looks like it will be prolonged. China has its own major problems. But getting closer to the point, ASOS are in crisis talks about their revolving credit facilities.......clearly there are envisaged cashflow issues and, as I have indicated before, I suspect in the last couple of months, margins have been so thin as to move into loss making territory.
How you can call this as the 'bottom' when the results are supposedly out tomorrow is beyond me.

Nevergoona retire......The major insurer Allianz trade has reduced cover by more than 50% in recent weeks. If they have considered it necessary, as sure as night follows day, others have or will follow suit.
The RNS today was too late. The damage is already done.
Molly......I've been in corporate restructing too, and yes covenants are amended all the time. However, very clearly, the need for a restructuring of their credit facility at this time displays a cashflow problem which will inevitably breach a covenant unless revised.
I would not be surprised if the results are delayed. In my opinion they should keep to the timetable otherwise it will only make it worse.

Good effort on here by some to put a positive spin on this. However, from experience, when some someone withdraws trade insurance from a company, it is simply not good news and implies they think the company is in trouble. ASOS have now confirmed, following this revelation, that it occurred in August. Were shareholders told about this? I do not recall this being mentioned anywhere.
I would not be surprised to see a sharp fall on Monday. Plus a cash call of some kind sooner rather than later is on the cards, quite possibly when the results come out. What a ridiculous situation that would be. That wouldn't raise a fantastic amount but would still heavily dilute the shares. This goes from bad to worse.

Hargreaves Lansdown still have final results down as 12 October too. And so do Interactive Investor. Someone is wrong.

ClaireSmith......Reduce debt / increase margins / improve operations............ talk about stating the bleedin' obvious!
The word 'delusional' comes to mind when you mention a figure of a £2.5 billion takeover. The Market capitalisation of this company is approaching £0.5 billion.
Keep on ramping. No one is taking any notice of you.

Clairesmith........Unfortunately there is more likely of a profit warning with the results next week. I'll be delighted if I'm wrong but the pattern here is not looking favourable, however Claire, carry on with the Friday night waccy-baccy as it does wonders for your imagination.
West6809........interesting facts you've raised. For someone to increase their stake is encouraging. I'm at a loss to understand why a couple of big holders have sold at such a low price. Normally these people are in for the long run or at least two or three years. The only reasons I can think of is........ 1. They want some cash to invest in a better bet elsewhere or 2. heaven forbid, they see this stock as a dead duck.
If this stock goes south of £5 there has got to be a few big boys eyeing up the figures. The Americans and others see UK stocks as dirt cheap. Providing the figures are not disastrous, I will do one final averaging down in the hope of a recovery within twelve months, or a takeover. (I now sound like ClaireSmith....erm, I mean JonHarris)