Member Info for simon1367

Special Resolution: ''That the Company is authorised to make one or more market purchases of ordinary shares of the Company, provided that such power be limited to a maximum number of 5,000,753 Shares and the power hereby conferred shall expire on the earlier of the conclusion of the next AGM of the Company or 10 April 2024''

Claire Smith.......this type of resolution is fairly common. It does not mean they WILL buy back shares. It gives them the option and flexibility to do so. In my view they need all the cash to see them through, rather than buy back shares in the short term. For you to be enthusiastic about the high level of shorters shows limited understanding of how these operators work.

Also, the remuneration levels are too high and I'm disappointed they were passed. For example the CEO's basic pay stays at £700,000....he must be heartbroken! Okay, he's only been in that position from about June but I believe he was promoted from within. Basically, reward for failure. His potential bonus this year is an extra 150% of salary, 30% of that will be based on revenue increases..(not profit). You say the directors looked 'happy and relaxed'. Funnily enough I'm not surprised by that.

Hello Velo Many thanks for your comments. I was already aware of the aspects you mentioned.

To be clear, I do not know that the full year to Aug 2023 WILL result in a net loss. I came to that conclusion after assessing factors we already know about (including the CEO's pledge to commence the overhauling of the business model in the current financial year). From it I surmise it is unlikely they will achieve so much in such a short period of time so as to end on a profit for y/e Aug '23. This is not to say that a turnaround will not have commenced, but any profit in my opinion will not filter through until 2024, perhaps beyond.

As I understand it, no full term guidance in terms of profit to Aug '23 was given due to uncertainty in the market place. A prediction of a loss at year end would not have gone down well with anyone.

I have based my assumption on numerous factors, and not least the track record of the current management which has been abysmal. It will be interesting how the AGM goes tomorrow in respect of remuneration and performance etc.

When the last results were announced, not enough emphasis was placed on the huge task ahead. Even then the forecasts were gloomy, and now they're dire. Household budgets are going to be squeezed drastically in 2023 particularly for low income earners. We have not seen anywhere near the full impact yet and ASC, even at the cheap end, will not go unscathed.

Lots of stock has already been written off (£130m!!!! ?). I predict another writedown. A poor decision to overbuy in the fickle fashion industry. Pre-Xmas the company has understandably been eager to achieve high revenue to demonstrate success and not to break a continuous upward trend, years on years. Other retailers' figures have held up fairly well. Asos SHOULD do the same. Unfortunately I suspect it will be at the expense of margins as the discounts this year at around 80% were higher than Nov/Dec 2021 (70%).

Asos operate in a busy space....and it's becoming busier with the likes of Shein, Boohoo, Zalando, dozens of others and even Amazon all vying for a bigger share. Mergers, takeovers etc will be inevitable in a crowded market. The high street re-emergence (even if short lived) must also be taken into account.

Hopefully ASC will come out of this leaner and profitable. High turnover is meaningless without correct margins. I think recovery may take longer than some think, unless a takeover or merger proposition appears.

Finally, there's very little movement in the shorts. That is of continued concern.

Dead_Stock - I'm not sure whether to congratulate you on your bravery or admonish you for your rash decision to invest so much in one stock. I'm dubious about your first post.

You say....''They need to make only 2% profit for the share to go to 800 to 1000 next day''....Not sure how you deduce this. Asos is not going to make a profit for the current financial half year, and is unlikely to do so in 2023. It may start to turnaround it's fortunes but that is a big 'may'.

High Street retail stores held up well pre-xmas particularly at the lower end. It might be that we are starting to see a new trend, with the high street fighting back and people starting to return. Interuption in deliveries pre-xmas (Royal Mail) and increasing returns have hit online businesses. I believe the likes of Next have the correct formula - a high street presence together with a highly efficient online business.

Trading4good......With all your defence of this company, I'm beginning to wonder if your middle name is Kamani lol.

You said to me in November that I was basically talking 'nonsense'. This is probably your favourite word! I mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a profit warning in January. You said ''I presume you are aware that Boo's financial year end is February, so it is extremely unlikely that any profit warning would come then (January) as January and February are dead months. If any profit warning is to be issued it would most likely be December.'' Well it didn't come in December, so we will soon find out if there is one this month.

You query why Aldebaran is making so many comments (looks like 20 comments in the last 30 days), which you must admit is a bit rich coming from you who has made over 500 in the same period!

I largely stand with my previous comments. Boohoo will eventually come out of this a leaner and fitter enterprise and may well be worth investing in for the medium or long term for those who are patient. I expect any trading update to see a small increase in turnover, but warnings of a very difficult 2023. Expect a lot of returns in early January. At least the company was sensible in introducing return fees. Several other companies have followed suit.

With shorts still being over 5%, it is clear the big boys still don't see this as a quick recovery play. I look forward to the update. I guess it will be very guarded.

In addition to the rumours of underwhelming trading for both Boohoo and ASC over the Christmas period, we have continued gloomy retail sales forecasts. Some more companies (probably the smaller ones) are inevitably going to go under. Boohoo and Asos will survive barring any more catastophies, but continue to drag each other down on every piece of pessimistic news. I believe both will continue the downward trend given the high likelihood of disappointing updates.
It's tempting at this level, but I won't consider buying into Boohoo until I see updates. As I have said so many times before, the Shorts still have it at the moment. The best hope of any near term recovery would be a takeover approach. And don't be surprised if Kamani is thinking of a private route. That would infuriate small shareholders. What a disappointment this 'growth stock' must be for current holders.

TheTrotsky....I entirely concur with your comments. Couldn't have put it better. A refreshingly balanced viewpoint.

Ammu.....they probably are undervalued unless trade deteriorates next year. On balance I think this is a good recovery play.
As an aside, please do not basically call me a liar. I am not shorting this share. I've never shorted anything, it's too risky. I leave that to the big players .......the likes of Marshall Wace etc.

Paulleydee......to be fair to Twrth, you were a bit selective in highlighting the positive part of the article.

Re your other comment, I would argue that the ASC share price (presently at £5.08) is hardly 'flying' lol.

The HL tip has resulted in a little blip upwards and may support the ASC price above £5 for a while. However the trend and charts show a continued downward curve. The indicators are that most online retailers have had a testing time over Xmas and are selling at massive discounts. Turnover may be higher for the likes of ASC and Boohoo, but I doubt it will translate to profits.

I will still hold until mid January to hear the ASC update. Not sure when Boohoo will update. Meanwhile the Shorts continue to hold the power.

How 'Seeking Alpha' can claim ASC is still 'trading profitably' when it lost £31m at it's year end 31st August 2022, and confirmed it will remain loss-making for at least the first half of it's current year running into 2023 is beyond me. I would love to ask these so called experts at Seeking Alpha to explain. Am I missing something here?

I've noticed this stock often dips in the last half hour of trading. It's as if the shares are being manipulated in some way .....possibly by shorters. The trades seen over the period in question do not seem to corrolate with the sp. It's not until after trading hours that one sees the true ending price.

The shorters are in control here. There is no sign of them closing out. They are betting on disappointing news in January.
Many contributers here have said that these shorters will have to buy back masses at some point with a resultant big rise in the sp. Knowbody has rightly pointed out that that doesn't necessarily happen. The big shorters are very deft at playing on dips and reducing their positions very gradually.

In my view the stock was initially lucky today with some positive retail news elsewhere (Nike) and the market generally well up. I suspect the sp will be relatively stagnant until the new year.

ClaireSmith....Shein will not be banned. Nice try at another ramp though lol.

The trend is still on a downward course although there has been some resistence to going below £5, but I sense it's only a matter of time. Everything seems to be against the stock at present.

As indicated previously, with ASC being the highest shorted share on the exchange by a fair margin, there remains little prospect of the 'trend' reversing.

Am surprised to see the share at this low level prior to Xmas. We await a trading update on 12thJanuary. Unless there is evidence of either 1. a highly successful xmas season or 2. evidence of a turnaround in fortune from their new strategy (too early in my view), I fear there will be a profit warning with a resultant drop in price.

Big discounts commenced on Monday. The MSE team expressed surprise at the bigger discounts this year (up to 80%)....from 70% last year. That does not bode well for margins and implies to me that they are trying to offload stale stock which they overbought earlier on. Remember, they've already written off about £130m of 'dead' stock.

I'm invested in this stock at £12.63 which is uncomfortable. On balance I still see ASC as getting through this tough period. A collaboration with Ashley could be interesting......I seem to recall that Frasers indicated that some arrangements could be mutually beneficial. Nevertheless, I could be holding on to this stock much longer than I had anticipated. If the trading update is better than expected, it is only then that I will consider averaging down.

Stoodio...agreed. Quite frankly though, what was the point of transferring her from Director of Group Finance to 'interim CFO' when it was blindingly obvious she was already on her way out. Clearly they failed to attract a quality candidate. In the 'interim period' pending her new appointment at another company, I doubt very much she will be doing anything constructive. Look at the RNS's and it seems to me that people at the top during 2022 are either leaving or being shuffled around eg. the CEO who was something else for a short while in the company before being promoted within. This company needs continuity together with quality management. The CEO has yet to prove himself with the revised modelling. I will reserve judgement until the Janaury trading statement.
NetZeroReady.....please clarify.

Re the interim CFO. Another one of my concerns at the top. She's not been there for five minutes and, as announced at the beginning of the month, is now jumping ship but will stay in post for six months until someone else is brave enough to take up the reigns. I saw the sp drift below 5 today and the trend depressingly is still downwards. I was tempted but resisted. I see this in the 4's next week at some point although Frasers acquisition activities elsewhere may prompt a blip at the start of the week. Some of the media reporting recently has been poor and inaccurate. MASH's 5% holding in ASC hasn't suddenly happened. They already held a strategic 3% for quite a while and only added approximately 2% recently. Don't get too excited yet.

Velo.....Thanks very much for clarifying the 'forecasts' aspect. I realised after my post that I'd worded things not necessarily the way I wanted, given that forecasts are of course effectively historical the moment after they've been set. I was however trying to establish when the figures had originally been stated, and was endeavouring to expose why it is now virtually impossible for them to achieve those results. I hope some of the events mentioned in my comments helped to explain some of the reasons. There are of course other aspects too including the economic climate (which has resulted in a large amount of returns), the rumours of credit insurance difficulties, unprofessional information leaks to 'friendly' brokers/analysts, and various news obtained by the press when it should have been notified officially by the company. I'm sure you can feel my frustration. It remains the case I'm invested in this company but I'm not going beyond my 'limit', and am resigned to sitting tight until I've at least heard the trading statement in January.

Velo......many thanks for general overview of the company.

However, I'd be interested to know where the 'markets estimated forecasts' came from. They appear to be historical and so, in my view, inaccurate. There's mention of net profit forecasts of c£21m for 2023 and c£53m for 2024. And yet even the company itself has acknowledged that 2023 will see a significant loss. I would not be surprised to see a loss of over £80m for 2023 particularly if they have to write down more stock.

You ask 'can we see anything untoward' to which you say no. Well I do. I see quite a few untowards!
For a start the revenue figures are flattening out and the forecast is similar for this year I believe. Growth is slowing comparatively and margins remain negligible. I know very little about fashion apart from the fact it often changes overnight, it is so fickle. What a mistake to buy so much stock (was it £1billion?) with the inevitable writedown of £130m.....so far. Sales on black friday were up, but higher revenue, as I constantly say, (and many don't seem to understand) does not convert to profit, if the margins are not there.

Let's look at the facts. ASC operating cash flow is negative. Debt is not satisfactorily covered from what I can see in the accounts. That may require more funding from somewhere. The company is unprofitable. The share price trend continues downwards. I didn't think it would get to this level until 12th January when the trading statement is due.

In answer to your question, we have already had sufficient news (some I've detailed above) to derail the 'profit' forecasts you mention. The existing management has a lot to prove. Also the CEO Calamonte has only been in position since June, having been promoted from within (he had been chief commercial officer since Jan '21) And it seems he owns less than 9k of shares in the company, hardly a resounding vote of confidence in my view. No-one from outside was either good or interested enough. The recent Chief financial officer has recently announced she's jumping ship having been in the job five minutes. All this disruption is unsettling especially in such a diificult time. No wonder the shorters are making a mint.

Todays announcement of a new non-executive 'tech expert' director appointment has done little to prompt a share blip rise. Lets hope he has a few innovative ideas. Meanwhile Mike Ashley's continues strategic holding is interesting but in my opinion it is doubtful he will enter the fray any time soon altough he may have a greater opportunity in January to buy cheaper.

.......and regarding M&Co, Ashley will be all over this like a rash. If he sees it fitting into his vision he will put in a dirt cheap offer to the administrators.

No matter how sensible this might seem, I'm afraid it probably doesn't bode well for the share price in the short term. It implies (correctly or otherwise) that the company remains somewhat rudderless at the top, or has other 'issues' that they seem incapable of solving themselves. And still more rumours of credit insurance cut backs. Once again we have this news via someone else and not the company. It's not good enough. I can envisage this company being informally put up for sale which could be a good thing if more than one concern were interested, or conversely could be bad if no-one initially expressed interest and subsequently MASH entered the fray with an opportunistic offer.

ClaireSmith....Just regurgitated hope on your part Let's revisit a few quotes from you, starting from last year.

3rd Nov 2021 (price £26.00) ''With Xmas on the way and ASOS being in a very powerful market position the share at this relatively cheap price can't last for long'' .......and.......''all the bad news and doom is out in the open, the share price as settled to a natural floor.....''.

26th Nov 2021..(Price £24.86) ''Price back down to cheap level And now in the crazy sales period of black friday to end of xmas. Asos will do very well during this time and make a lot of money''

One year later 10 Dec 2022 : quote ''seems like this at the floor, and at the lowest point........''

Price now £5.79. No wonder you've been ramping all year. One day with all these predictions, the odds are you will eventually get it right. But I won't hold my breath. PS explain to me waht a 'natural floor' is. Is it when a share reaches £26.00? ....I'm intrigued.

Murmurs...I've vented my irriritation and pessimism many times, quite understandably in my opinion. I'm sure lots of other shareholders here also feel the frustration. It's tempting to sell out and invest somewhere else but it always seems stupid to sell at near the bottom. What I have to say on here has almost zero relevance to the share price. Same goes for the serial rampers. It is the big boys who are the manipulators, the hedge funds like Marshall Wace. Which is of course why I am concerned at it being the highest shortest share out there. I'm now fairly sure this is one I've got to tuck away for a couple of years.

Murmurs....Okay, I may have been a bit harsh with my wording. Let us just say that given all the aspects that have been against the retail sector recently, combined with a few other things going on within the company, the cash position remains uncertain. It also remains to be seen if the new initiatives work. Let's hope that those at the top have got their act together.
I haven't any particular agenda. Ammu may have confused me with another Simon on here who I believe has been shorting. He should check out my historic comments more diligently in future! I'm invested. I averaged down a couple of months ago and am at 12.63. I'ts always tempting to average down further but I've reached my limit for a single share. Having been stung more than once in the past I have a rigid figure I keep to. However I may do what Treacle suggested and sell on the bounce and buy back in lower to avoid adding extra capital. As KnowBody's article says, the chances are if we are 'patient' the odds are the shares will come good. Unfortunately when I originally invested it wasn't meant to be for the medium to long term!