Member Info for simon1367

Questor's tips in the DT often come across as well reasoned, but do not always address simple fundamentals. Their tips are sometimes the kiss of death. DGE is a massive company that needs to adapt to changing demands. In the short term I see them continuing to drift down. I'm sure private equity companies are having a look for break up value, but they need very deep pockets to acquire.

There's no smoke without fire. The late refund issues are a serious issue and in my view demonstrate the start of problematic cash flows. Customers get nervous very quickly when the rumour gets around of not get money back for weeks....and will move elsewhere. With the usual mob still hanging on, I foresee a painful decline. I don't trust them one iota to act in the interests of most shareholders, other than themselves of course. Some things never change.

I wouldn't necessarily call the share 'safe' given that they are down 39% over two years and are presently shorted at 3.1%. Having said that, I would suggest there's more chance of an upturn than a downside. The chairman has dipped his toes in with a small purchase recently. Keeping an eye on this one although, generally speaking, am more cautious when it comes to AIM listed shares.

The NAV in my view is meaningless in this instance. This is by far my worst performing investment. Perhaps if considering a first buy, then the present price looks attractive. However a high yield is meaningless if you lose more in capital depreciation. These infrastructure investments were sold as a relatively safe haven with inflation linked safety features on the various projects. I've lost about 20% so far !!! What a dog of a share.

Gggg21 I can obviously see the reasoning concerning the future trading arrangements with India. Potential cheaper goods for the UK consumer, combined with potential higher margins for the likes of Asos. Possibly a bit too simplistic. We are a fair distance from things being implemented and it will be interesting to see how things pan out. I still fear other macro-economic factors will interfere. Greater competition may well negate some of the benefits. I remain to be convinced this will be much of a significant deal. I'll be delighted to be proven wrong.

With the present info we have, and the little time there has been to evaluate, it is difficult to come to a definitive conclusion if this deal is going to favour or go against Asos. However, what I was trying to convey (which I'm sure most other people understood) was that if I was personally asked now for an opinion as to whether it seems to benefit Asos, my answer would be a resounding No. I suspect I will be proven correct. I generally have been up until now!

Gggg21 Hard to evaluate at this early stage. The 'exclusive deal' they made a while back with Reliance Retail has yet to yield any significant sums. We need positive news on this. Remember, RR is I believe the sole decision maker as to how Asos products will be sold in India, including Asos shops there. ASC will be seen as slightly up market from others there.

The 'negative' as I see it, is any extra companies here in the UK (numerous) switching to India to buy cheaper products in direct competition to Asos. New relationships will be built. ANY extra competition in an already overcrowded market is unwelcome given Asos' precarious position.

The sooner Polvsen makes his move the sooner we will be put out of our misery. Even with a prospective takeover / merger / or going private, I not got positive vibes on this. I can still see small shareholders coming out worst.

The Indian free trade deal announced today, doesn't do any favours for Asos, Boohoo and other fashion companies in the UK as far as I can see. It won't affect Asos immediately but it will potentially make clothes cheaper here, and make it just a little bit more difficult moving forward with the greater competition.

This is excruciatingly painful. The market clearly remains to be convinced. It wasn't difficult for them to beat their forecasts. The update is more waffle from the CEO with continuing promises of jam tomorrow, a story I've been listening to for the last few years. I anticipate further price pressures coming from Chinese operators diverting even more cheap goods to the UK and this coinciding with Shein opening on the London Exchange. Asos' new 'model' will be offset by other continuing pressures such as an over saturated market, limited growth and high debt. Without the 'takeover' speculation, the SP will inevitably continue to drift downwards. No wonder Povlsen & Co are eyeing this up for a private takeover or similar. Imagine one of them offering a 60% premium. I can't remember what Barker paid, but I can envisage the institutions and MA probably agreeing, ending up with the small shareholders being screwed. Mark my words.

This is the problem with shares on AIM. A relatively muted upgrade by Shore Capital from sell to hold results in a ridiculous SP increase of 24.24%. Unless something is happening behind the scenes we do not know about, this is sheer manipulation by market makers. The rise of this magnitude does not appear in any way to correlate with share purchases. I remain very sceptical about whats going on here.

Samba69 Calamonte is full of promises of jam tomorrow. Povlsen won't give two hoots about the CEO's incentive scheme. Calamonte was promoted from within (from memory I think CFO) and whilst he has made a good attempt (in the last couple of years) to turn things around, he has unfortunately been part of the problem from an earlier stage, decimating shareholder value. He should have gone long ago. I'm sure Povlsen would like the brand incorporated in some fashion within his bestseller operations. But he is a very patient operator. He can easily play a waiting game, but his recent purchase to nearly 30% is very interesting. I reiterate the fact that 'if' an offer were to be made now, it would disappoint a lot of small shareholders.....simply because this debt laden company's share, imo, isn't worth more than a fiver. You only need to review broker and analysts fair value estimates to see that they mostly agree with me..

SP currently up about 8% today. One wonders if that is on the back of Povlsen's move to closer to 30|% or there's been a leak. Possibly both. I can see Barker adding here as well. Broadly speaking he is an ally of the current board and there's effectively an alliance with Povlsen. Both will try to keep Ashley out of the equation, although Barker is nevertheless ultimately a hedge fund operator out for his own benefit too. If Povlsen starts to make a move the SP will obviously rise sharply. But I still can't see any offer being much more than at a 45-55% premium. Suggestions of £10 is cloud cuckoo land. There is so much debt and uncertainty that half that figure would be more realistic. I still believe Povlsen holds all the cards here and is quite content to play it long.

There are exceptions to that 30% rule although in this case, if one of the big holders does breach that limit, I think they would have to make an offer. My bet at the moment is for Polvsen to take it private, get it out of the limelight and merge it into one of his other operations. Frasers (Ashley in particular) wouldn't be happy but they would at least probably come out with a good profit on their holding. I understand results are due about next Thursday. Highly significant Polvsen has gone to the maximum just prior to these. Things could be hotting up, although the results will not set the world alight.

I obviously lost confidence in the executive long ago, especially the founders who after initially making a success of the business then continually drained it.

Was the query, asked by Ashley, of Umar Kamani receiving £2m annually for providing “consultancy services” to Boohoo subsidiary PrettyLittleThing ever answered? Despite repeated requests from Frasers that the details of this consultancy arrangement be disclosed and notwithstanding the significance of the alleged amounts and apparent conflict of interest concerns, including in relation to Umar Kamani’s position as a related party to Boohoo and PLT, no details were provided to shareholders.

Was this just another way of taking out more money? I wonder if shareholders now regret their recent voting decisions.

From the recent trading update, it would seem there will be minimal surprises at the half year figures to be announced April. However I fear that this news has already largely been built into the present SP. I really do hope that Calamonte doesn't have other excuses up his sleeve. I can think of one or two he could come up with. The big shorters seem to have already made up their mind. With declared shorts at 4.58% the situation looks ominous. Nevertheless there might be a quick buck to be made by buying in now in the hope of a spike on results, rather like a couple of weeks ago. Still high risk.

Samb69/JordiMendes .... I think you've misinterpreted what I said, or perhaps I wasn't clear in what I was trying to convey. Takeover offer prices rarely go above a certain percentage of an SP. Often they are in a range of 25% to 50% above an SP to make it look like an attractive offer. Occasionally one will get an offer such as 100% above an SP such as the one by Mars for Hotel Chocolate. An offer for Asos now, on this basis, would be incredibly opportunistic and would be more than likely turned down by the major players already invested. They have their own agenda and appear to see a positive way forward whether strategically or in terms of a long investment especially Povlsen.. Opportunistic outsiders may see it in a different light. Jordi, I don't talk 'drivel'. I've been invested here for a very long time and probably know more than most here about Asos and the wrong decisions executives have made, including Calamonte. Despite recent good attempts to turn around matters (should have happened long ago) I still do not have full confidence in the CEO. I've generally been fairly accurate in my comments over the last couple of years. Unfortunately people here come and go and, in between times, come out with ever increasing optimistic tones which are often unrealistic. People get carried away. To date, more often than not, small shareholders have been shafted. There's money to be made trading in and out but the main winners will probably be the major players.

Povlsen is very coy. He has the resources to take this private. However, I can't see more than a 40% premium to the current SP. Meanwhile, MA is not liked. His position is increasingly looking long to benefit from a recovery and bailing out at a profit. However, one never knows with MA. He has history with Povlsen. But Povlsen would probably reject any bid from MA. And besides, MA isn't normally in the business of taking things over at a premiuim. It all looks quite interesting.

The trading update is very encouraging. I just hope there are no more unwelcome surprises from Calamonte in the y/e details next month. My fear now is that the current SP (so long as it doesn't drop back on profit taking) builds in the expected positive news, so don't expect an equally high jump in April.

I wonder if this update will prompt any of the big players, particularly Povlsen or MA to show their intent. Povlsen is usually a very long term player, but he might feel its the right time to make an offer, merge operations or consider other options. MA will still be eager to make a move too.

Finally, the SP rise yesterday does look suspicious. Firstly, Povlsen miraculousy decided to up his holding a couple of days before this update. Was this a coincidence? If it was, then there are still questions to be answered when, yesterday, the SP went up I think by about 14%. Was it insider dealings or was it simply because of his purchase, or maybe a bit of both? And so in twenty four hours the SP has risen from £2.30 to £3.20, that's a tidy 39%. Some have made a killing.

I find it surprising that the SP jumped 14% after Povlsen increased his holding by just under one per cent. The TopShop story possibly aided the rise slightly despite my earlier doubts. I suppose it may have prevented MA scooping up a few more. Povlsen is a notorious long term holder. Unless he is starting to instigate something, I see things drifting again. It's astonishing how sensitive this stock is to what is generally a small increase in holding. As I said a while back, this is a share to go in and out of on a speculative basis. Money to be made if you time it right. Easier said than done!

''Brits sent into a frenzy'' at the news about Topshop's return. What a load of BS. This is more like a trashy Sun newspaper headline. There then follows a regurgitated story of its history. I'm sure the market will be impressed at this piece of positive news! We need something to reverse the decline.