Member Info for simon1367

Holders of put options? Not exactly sure what you mean by this. Frasers (MA) has sold puts to get an up front premium. They need the SP to keep above the strike price, probably about 3.80, in order not be forced to buy physical shares. The buyer of these options holds the cards and hopes the SP drops. Then they can make money by insisting Frasers take up the shares at the higher strike price, rather than the present market price. This time around there's not a lot in it. However, one thing I do know; there's far too much manipulation going on with this share. The sort of thing we expect on AIM but not the main exchange.

Given the general state of the economy and other global factors, especially the USA, France and Germany, I personally believe a correction on the UK stock exchange of perhaps 10% is overdue.

Regarding the shorts dropping a bit, 5.14% will still subdue the SP imo. A gloomy June weatherwise is not going to help.

Shein and Temu are a pain. Its not a level playing field. Something needs to be done otherwise they will detrimentally distort the market. Unfortunately I can still see Labour welcoming them to the LSE.

An interesting recent article cited the decision by Amazon to play Shein and Temu at their own game. They have come to the conclusion that, at the moment, given the economic climate, people are content to wait longer for their goods so long as they can get them cheaper. Amazon are therefore increasing their direct sales from China to compete with Shein and co. All this of course chips away sales from the likes of Boohoo and Asos. So for the time being, the SP is going nowhere. Asos' financial year end is not far away. A nervous time is ahead.

I'm sorry but the recent comment - ''Basically highlighting why they have been so successful'' was a bit rich. Presumably this is reflected in the SP which is down 93% in 3 years? This has been an unmitigated disaster for private shareholders. Maybe the quote should have said ''basically highlighting why it 'was' so successful'' ! Meanwhile, I suspect, given poor weather, June sales will be below expectations, as demonstrated by the continuing shorts levels which are still way too high. The market doesn't appear to be expecting anything particularly exciting. The SP is stuck in this 340p-380p zone. Key players appear to be playing a waiting game.

CustardCream...if you haven't yet invested, my view is don't. There are far better opportunities than this. When it comes to a single investment, this is one to avoid. Too risky.

This just sums up a lot of the AIM market. Less regulated and open to more manipulation. In circumstances like this I usually play the three day rule which means one may not get in at the very bottom but the share stabilises, or carries on drifting.downwards. I am watching this one but generally speaking I avoid most AIM stock these days.

I've spent time avoiding the forum due to recent arguments which quite frankly do not add value to the debate. Given the political climate and the possible volatility over the next couple of months, I've pondered whether to call it a day or to persevere for an eventual turnaround. There are more returns to be made elsewhere, but I'm still loathe to sell at a near low, so I will 'hold' ftb. A few random thoughts: Firstly I remain sceptical about the management despite their efforts to turn the business around; admittedly some actions they've taken are positive but Calamonte has a lot to prove still. It's always jam tomorrow with him. Someone said that Barker has put a lot of his money in. I repeat; this is not, strictly speaking, 'his' money but his clients who are using his hedge fund Camelot & relying on his expertise. He also did it to get himself a position on the board as a non-exec. It was defensive measure. He clearly is maneuvering in order to gain influence for when the crunch occurs between Polsven and Ashley and any other predator. Ashley may need to take up physical shares (given his derivative positions) if the SP remains around 3.50. Do not think that he will go above 30% because all he needs to do at the time is to sell a few to keep under the limit.The shares are going nowhere and will remain in the 3.40 to 4.00 kind of area unless the market is spooked by political changes. Shorts are still too high and indicates that the markets are far from convinced that a turnaround will happen anytime soon. Declared shorts need to reduce to below 3% for the SP to move positively. There are many hurdles in front of them; mostly associated with debt. Asos made one big mistake initially. Excessive stock. The old investor, who you probably know, said ''rule one, never lose money. Rule two, never forget rule one''. Well, Asos are losing money. This bad weather is not going to help, so unless the weather improves, I expect a disappointing update in late summer and a possible cash raise. If that happens, we, as small shareholders, could be scre*wed again. I am 'neutral' on the India deal. There's not enough detail provided to see how beneficial it is. Ambani of Reliance Industries always strikes a hard bargain and the devil may be in the detail. They're a strong partner yes, but this 'exclusive deal' to sell Asos label brands in India is low on detail. Don't forget that Reliance has a habit of signing loads of 'exclusive' deals with other fashion operators like Gap etc. Shein is unsurprisingly also looking at India. Plus, Reliance have full discretion as to what retail channels they use, or do not use, to sell Asos products. And the physical 'Asos outlets' proposed; who pays the cost for setting up? Is this a franchise arrangement, in which case does Asos get a premium? I remain to be convinced. Presently, I sense the SP drifting south unless takeover fever emerges.

Zac0-4..... If you had held for 5 years, the HL graph indeed says the SP has gone down 15.5%. However it isn't so bad as it looks as that figure excludes dividends

These figures are approximate but say you invested £1000 five years ago, the SP would now be worth £845.

Year 1 div £58. Year 2 div £66, Year 3 div £ 62, Year 4 Div £78, Year 5 Div £81 = £345. If reinvested annually, the divs would have been even a bit higher. Anyway, even on a rough calculation you have £845 + £345 = £1190. So over five years on £1000 you've derived nearly a 20% appreciation, so about 4% a year. Okay, not fantastic but not the end of the world bearing in mind savings rates for half the time were very low

.....Oh, and I forgot to mention one positive about Shein. If they do go public in London, they'll have enough spare change to swoop up the likes of Boohoo and Asos, hopefully at a healthy premium. Perhaps they're not so bad after all. Yep, money talks!!!!

The Chinese mindset will be a long time changing. Morally speaking, no-one should be buying from Shein or a multitude of other Chinese companies. The reality is that, come the end of the day, most people will conveniently put it to the back of their minds and buy from them. Money is all important. The young fashion conscious crowd of today advocate everything green, moral and healthy and yet they will nevertheless buy from these sweatshop type concerns.

Shein is going to be a massive disrupter, until such time as the rest of the world decides enough is enough. London should not be offering Shein an IPO opportunity, but the LSE is desperate to gain business following the departure of others to NY. Purely from an investment opportunity, I again wouldn't touch it with a bargepole. It will enter overpriced, and I suspect will lose value for shareholders while making loads for the founders. Transparency will no doubt be negligible.

Jamesss....If I were to see the stock rising to £6 of its own volition and without approaches I would, on balance, be likely to retain the shares as it would already indicate a turning point in consumer confidence and in the company's fortunes and demonstrate ongoing momentum. However, if the shares got above £6 by way of a bid (that's a 75% premium on today's SP), I would seriously be considering an exit, (unless a 2 or 3 way auction emerged). A takeover requires reorganisation and a fair amount of time to consolidate and see the fruits, and I'm not sure if I have the patience any more. I've been encouraged by Barker's purchasing , but of course, it's not actually his own personal money (rather a long-term value orientated hedge fund) although he is paid to make money for his investors and is now a non-exec director. As I've said, at the moment, the market generally is not buying the enthusiasm of the CEO as evidenced by the shorts and current SP. My average is circa £7.30

KBYK...I haven't any game as such, other than to strike a balance on here and put a lid on some of the over-optimistic one-liners...you know, 'up to £15 by Xmas' types. Positivity is great but let's not over do it.

The CEO has presided over a difficult period and it would be fair to say quite a lot has been self inflicted. In my view he has that steeper hill to climb now due to factors I've already raised but which are not seemingly going away. Of course I'm merely guessing and interpreting the figures last time round. We have high debt, a lot at high interest (rates that may stay relatively high ftb), slim margins due to selling stale stock, inventory still too high which in my opinion will result in another write down at some point (no doubt it's been easier to get rid of the better stuff, but what about less fashionable items; as they say 'fast fashion simply goes out of fashion fast'), declining sales particularly in the USA, ever-increasing competition...Shein haven't touched the surface yet, I could go on. So , the question I ask myself is ''is cutting costs and clearing inventory at virtually zero profit, sufficient to return to profit?''. Very unlikely. Asos has got into this position largely via bad management and now some of the same are trying to rectify the situation.

Regarding my comment about 2026 being more likely to see a profit , if we're lucky, is associated with my above comments. Also when Calamonte says we won't see a pre-tax profit until ''at least 2025'', I obviously fear the worst. This is him being his usual hopeful optimistic self. the market doesn't seem to be buying it. On that basis I say 2026, altough then they have to contend with the bond issue.

Asos has got itself in a muddle, largely through lacking focus. Fast evolving consumer behaviour has previously outpaced Asos' ability to adapt. Others have bet right and have moved forwards to hybrid models such as H&M, Next, Frasers, and Zara. They're ahead of the game. MA knows online has a huge part to play but physical presence is also a part of it. An omnichannel service. Topman is currently wasted as a pure online play.

I know all this sounds doom and gloom but the company has at last recognised the need to be more agile and responsive. Despite the huge challenges, I can just about see glimpses of a turnaround, which is which is why I guess MA and Barker are in the fray. For me, I just want my money back which means the price more than doubling. I will not sell at the bottom. That invariably is a wrong move. With a reasonable chance of a momentum setting in or a bid, I'm sticking with it notwithstanding the risks. My main concern is a poor summer, and a cash call in the autumn!

Following the last months update, I think the CEO has a steeper hill to climb than anticipated. ASOS admits it needs at least until 2025 to return to a growth in sales and a positive pre-tax profit. On previous experience, that probably means 2026 then, where more hurdles linger such as the bond renewal. Debt is the major issue. As people know, I have doubts as to his ability and fear that cash could become tight between now and the promised turnaround of 2025. Why else would it explore a potential sale of its Topshop brand? While a sale would solve a short-term financial dilemma for the company, it would send bad vibes to ASOS shareholders. Selling off assets when predators know you are in dire need for cash will see potential buyers exploit the weakness.

Alternatively, will someone eventually bid for ASOS? I think this is fairly likely. This company would benefit from a single strong owner controlling things, radical changes implemented outside the public eye, and a strong balance sheet as well as retail expertise backing management. However, without the likes of MA, Povlsen or Next getting too involved, I continue to see ASOS as a crisis-ridden company that may have to go cap in hand again to capital markets. Shareholders would face further dilution. Meanwhile I believe Povlsen, a silent partner, is there for the long term (famous last words lol). He's had loyalty to the brand for such a long time. Barker also tends to play long but I think in this case, he and MA are in it to make money somewhat more quickly. Barker is investing his clients money and MA is purely an opportunist who sees this as a two way win. So many people say that Mike Ashley is a man without a strategy who places random punts on stocks. Yeah right, just look at Frasers, awash with cash with fingers in so many pies. Yes he likes a punt, but they are always measured and hedged. Meanwhile, with declared shorts still hovering between 5.5 and 6.5 , the SP ain't going anywhere soon, unless someone pounces. It is only this factor which is propping up the SP.

In an ever increasing overcrowded market, consolidation is inevitable. Boohoo and Asos continue to be in a precarious position and are vulnerable. I repeat, let's be realistic. If an opportunist bid is forthcoming it is highly unlikely to be more than at a premium of 40-60% (£5 - £6). Rarely does a company go above this. Hotel Chocolate was taken out by Mars at about 100% but that was highly unusual.

Frasers (+ 179% in 5 years) and now awash in cash. Asos -91% in the same period and highly indebted. MA sees Asos as a nice fit to his omnichannel plans. He and Next have got it right and are ahead of the game. The problem is, MA is unlikely to bid himself and probably merely hopes to benefit from an outsider bid, with a view to forming a strategic partnership of sorts.

Does anyone here feel as I do that Fevr has lost it's way a bit, with the SP floundering around the £11 to £12 mark? Now doing 'okay' but down 65% over 5 years. Surely this will eventually merge with someone like Britvic as a defensive measure, or be taken out by one of the giants. On that basis only, it may be worth a punt.

A shorting figure increasing to 6.21% is undeniably of concern as it indicates weakness and a return to a potential downward trend and, frustratingly, more of the same. Without an intervention by way of an offer, the SP is destined to, at best, stagnate. The latest RNS is irrelevant. MA, in theory, 'lost' his recent put bet and was obliged to take up some physical shares which I'm sure he didn't mind, knowing he would stay under 30%. I'm still counting on Shein as the main interupter if it lists in London. If it is allowed to list (LSE are desperate to reverse the present trend of companies leaving), it will be aggressive in it's expansion. Asos and Boohoo are vulnerable. I'd rather MA put in an offer and sort this company out but 'takeover bids' are not generally his style.

Alllornothing ....Thank you for clarifying that about Sean Glitheroe. I had forgotten he was only appointed on an 'interim' basis; so I was unfair in my comment. Mind you, look what happened to the previous company he was CFO at... Lol.

Have dug out bits between the waffle of the report. I remain underwhelmed. Hoped for better but we are just about keeping on track. Still promises of jam tomorrow. Waffle 'as the result of old stock and red seas delays there is a suboptimal level of newness providing a less compelling customer proposition' ! I will put a few thoughts out there.

The most risky area is Debt. Pretax losses widen to £120m from £87m last year. I've previously highlighted the incompetent borrowing facility last year at high rates. Inventory still too high.

West6809 sensibly reminded us of the £500m bond. Will need to be thought about in 18 months. We may just see some profits coming through by then, but interest cost on bond could be four times higher, maybe more. And where did that £500m go? Some was part of the finance restructure after the the TS aquisition. The rest was for global expansion. That went well didn't it? Sales in USA down 25%. Profit margins expectedly down due to clearing old stock, but I predict some further write offs. Impairment of £14m due to mothballing of Lichfiled site. What a waste. Shein market share rises from 1.7% to 2.2%..Asos share down from 3.1% to 2.4%. Shein chipping away. When they list in London they intend to mean business, and will have deep pockets, hope an offer for Asos! NY sensibly rejected them . Yes, a lot of their stuff is rubbish but they will continue to eat into market share. Asos have merely copied Shein's model....Test and React. It works quite well but hardly new. Time and again they blame something for low margins....selling old stock, having to slash prices to compete, Xmas discounts, unforeseen factors eg Red Sea woes, the weather etc Topshop is a wasted asset in my view. It needs a physical presence and MA knows this. As for Mr Calamonte, he says the new business model is 'showing promise'. We need more than that. This is the sort of guy who will probably only buy shares if a crisis occurs and he buys to prop them up. If he hasn't shown confidence in the share at this low price, while things are 'showing promise', why should I? As for the CFO role, Glithero didn't last long - 11 months. Dave Murray. Oh dear! Bankruptcy seems to follow him around like a magnet. 2019/22 at Farfetch, went bust. 2022/23 was at Matches, went bust and MA seems to have 'let him go'. I'm just hoping it's not going to be 3 times unlucky. There's a lack of substance in this report. MA sees this as an inefficiently run company but which could be turned around and would be a good fit for him. Other than takeover speculation, this share will stick around the £3.30 to £3.80 mark. A 100% rise is very unlikely short term. £15 by Xmas is cloud cuckoo land. Shorts need to reduce by at least half to get things moving. All in all, nothing to see here.

What a couple of months does for this share...up 17%. Volatile but long term rewarding. Almost have to eat my words from last post. Maybe this is a share that one can go in and out of to make a quick profit too.

I believe it is only non-excutive director Barker who bought loads of shares recently. And that was partly because he was invited onto the board as a defensive measure against predators like MA. Barker bought before the closed period started. He plays long normally. The CEO of course, has bought sweet FA.

Jamess: Spot on. I dislike waffle. I want clear concise detail on Wednesday.