Member Info for simon1367

The shorts are still far too high in my opinion. However, counter that with the strategic move made by non-executive director, Barker (Camelot) in the last couple of days, makes for an interesting few weeks. Either Barker knows something we don't (this must be nearing the closed period in terms of directors trading) , or he is simply expressing mid to long term confidence in online retail and this particular enterprise. My major niggle though are the shorts and the clear manipulation that's been going on here for too long. Barker could be betting that the continued ' takeover' speculation will keep the shares fairly bouyant at around the present price despite the risk of possible disappointing results shortly.

I don't believe the next update will be anything but mediocre. Retail clothing is generally the weakest area and only the smartest guys with a finger in both online and high street pies are bucking the trend. Meanwhile MA and his manipulation of this share by using derivatives has reaped rewards up until now. He's probably more convinced then ever that he is on a win/win situation here. If results are better than expected, he will benefit from a higher price and the prospect of a good ongoing partnership. Similarly he could benefit by some approach from a foreign predator. If the company goes in the opposite direction, he's there to pick up the pieces with a view to merging it into his empire.

He must be delighted by the interest in Currys. What a nice little profit. However, Asos shareholders will be wanting caste iron proof that things are starting to turnaround. As I have warned on several occasions, any stagnation of sales/margins will see this share sticking around the £3.50/£4.20 mark, giving ample opportunity to make a quick buck here and there, albeit with some risk. Finally, on the basis of the opportunistic offer made for Currys (the usual type of premium), don't expect more than an initial 35%/50% premium for Asos, should it transpire...ie £5.50 to £6. Before anyone shouts me down, yes I know this, to many people, heavily undervalues the company, but that's what happens in these markets.

''Obviously, things have changed a bit'' - You're not kidding. Retail stocks are in the doldrums. Only the fittest survive and plenty are going under; those that know what they are doing are coping. Asos needs fundamental change and that includes the management. Disappointing results are on the horizon in my opinion. Hence the short postions and the lack of immediate optimism after the Christmas period. Asos are struggling due to poor decisions over the last few years. Frasers are thriving and overflowing with cash due to astute management. If we wait long enough, we will not be rewarded by a turnaround in fortunes, but by a takeover of sorts.......not necessarily by Frasers.

More potential future woes on the horizon for fashion retailers when they least need it.

It went by relatively unnoticed (about 6 months ago) but the European Commission proposed new rules to make producers responsible for the full life cycle of textile waste, in the hope it will boost the recycling sector and create a bigger market for second-hand clothes. The proposals follow a ban on the destruction of unsold garments, and new requirements for product durability. It includes clothing that comes into the EU. For companies such as Asos and Boohoo which are already under financial pressure, the investment required by regulatory changes might prove painful.

This isn't going to impact on these companies profitablility in the short term, but in my opinion will nevertheless be another factor in suppressing 'cheap' fashion retailers long term share prices. The quicker the likes of Asos and Boohoo merge or are acquired, the better. The sector is far too cluttered and any upturn in Asos' fortunes are, in my view, going to be painfully slow. I sense the next update will be disappointing. It was telling that there was no interim update after the run up to Christmas. If sales had been up, they would have been shouting it from the rooftops as other better performing retailers did. I don't think Frasers will go above 30% for obvious reasons, but will just sit it out with a view to pouncing (or indeed exiting) when they see fit. The other big shareholder also seems intent on sitting tight so it's a bit of a stalemate at the moment.

At today's sp, with reinvested divs over the last couple of years, I'm still down 21%. I'm naturally disappointed.

It's been promoted as one of the better quality IT's in this sector. I'm hoping for better things. It's all very well having a nice dividend yield, but it's no good if the sp steadily goes down!

To add to the recent comments concerning derivatives, Pokerchips is spot on. The RNS form is a bit misleading. I suppose it should really read that Frasers could 'potentially' have voting rights over that percentage quoted. So, as Pokerships has implied, if the SP drops significantly below the strike price (which I imagine is around the present price or a bit above) , then Frasers will be obligated to buy the physical shares at the strike price even though the shares might be significantly lower by expiry. Most people who 'sell puts' are betting the SP will rise or stay relatively stable at least. They do not normally want a situation whereby the SP drifts downwards because then they will be obliged to buy the shares at the original higher strike price, whereas if they hadn't done the derivative deal in the first place, they could buy the shares cheaper in the market. Of course the shorters are gambling the other way, which in turn subdues the SP.

Disappointing to see this slowly drift downwards. I must say it looks a tempting entry point, or in my case, averaging down.

Maybe the market is still uncomfortable about the price they paid for the most recent USA aquisition. Surely this is still a sound investment.

Up 7% today. Is this a delayed to the update last week, or something else I wonder. Now the old boss is back in charge, I'm hoping they will be on track to better things and further enhancements to the business.

It's looking pretty ominous. The fact that they have not indicated how pre-xmas went is telling and doesn't bode well. If it had been good, they would, by now, be shouting it from the roof tops. The overall gloomy retail results from elsewhere will probably also be reflected in Asos' update, whenever it arrives. I wish some of the top execs would put some faith in the company by investing. If they're not prepared to purchase at this price, I don't think I will either! MA is the gambler, and is unpredictable, but I think his strategy here is one of long term, although if things turn worse, he stills sees himself as a winner by picking up the pieces.

Jamess I concur with your view re the UK Stock Exchange. It's nothing like it used to be. One can blame Brexit to a certain extent, but New York is where it's at. Nevertheless, there are many undervalued UK stocks and I wouldn't be surprised to see even more approaces from forein companies, particularly from USA.

Asos looks as though they will avoid an update until March. Maybe they think the SP will gradually build in the disappointing results and gloomy outlook.

I see a lot of mergers and aquisitions in the next year or so. This market is overcrowded. Meanwhile Frasers continue their strategic investments; very much a win/win for them.

In my view Asos is a hold. Eventually someone is going to make an offer.

Having done my research, these are my final comments about this company, no doubt to the delight of MoneyShark!!!

The emergency cash being raised comes at the expense of private shareholders whose holdings will be virtually wiped out completely, through further dilution.

This is an equity raise of about $14million. Atari are taking up about $2million. Nichiporchik is taking up about $10million and the rest is open to retail offer.

Nichiporchik, the co-founder, took out £56million (about $70million ) with the IPO in 2021. His underwriting of this recent placing and retail issue is effectively a re-injection of a bit of this money. In my view, this is virtually taking the company private by the back door, but not quite.

Shareholders vote today. Over 50% support is needed (not including Niks present 38% holding) to pass the resolution.. With his injection he will have control over 50% of the company. He has also said that if there is not sufficient support, the company will file for chapter11 insolvency.

All this came about due to very few people noticing the early capitalisation of development costs that didn't show up in a hit to profitiability. On top of this, the company wasted tens of millions on Verses Evil and shut it down within two years. Additionally they have faced a couple of serious law suits.

The company has been run by games wizards who have virtually zero business acumen, and who in my view are cowboys incapable of running a business. Good old Nik. Down to his last £48,000,000 from the IPO, while the rest of us have lost 97% of our investment at the present price of £0.042p, with the prospect of that going to below a penny. And we never did find out what happened to Luke Burtis' holding and whether he sold or not. Thanks a bunch Nik.

Pearls....it is Frasers selling the puts, not ASOS. Frasers are continually benefiting from these sales all the while the SP is stabilising around the £3.75 - £4.00 mark. The shorts are some of the hedge funds buying these puts thinking it will go lower. Up until now, the 'bid' speculation has kept the SP above the strike price, or thereabouts. If Asos drifts downwords in the next few weeks, Frasers may be obliged to buy the shares above the market price. That may not bother them if they intended to buy them in the first place. They, in their view, are onto a win/win situation if they think the long term prospects are encouraging.

Am I surprised by the BBC news item today regarding the mis-labelling of clothes and their origins? Emphatically No. As my Mum used to say; a leopard never changes it's spots.

ShateKhan.....possibly, although physical shares only up by 1.84%, whereas the derivative shareholding reduced by nearly 6%. Hard to work out if it was as a result of a previous selling put transaction obliging him to take up some shares, or a separate purchase in the market. Haven't time to delve further! Nevertheless, my point stands. However, Frasers/MA might not be so lucky in future if the SP drops say to below 3.50ish. The deals he has done in recent months, I suspect are at a higher strike price, which means if the SP continues downwards, he might be obliged to take up a lot of shares in the coming months. If the results are better than expected, the SP will rise and he will not be requested to take up the shares.

ShareKhan......Which specific RNS date 'at the end of October' are you referring to? There have been numerous selling put deals by Frasers over several months, and as I've said, it's rare that they've been forced to take the physical shares at the strike price on expiry. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but far more often than not, Frasers have won the bet and have kept the upfront premium they received for selling the puts.

Frasers playing their game of using 'put option selling' to gain an up front premium; more cash in their pocket and probably little likelihood, in their estimations, of them having to take up the physical shares. They've been doing this for months. When it comes to the expiry of the sell puts, notice how rare it is that their physical shareholding increases. I'm not sure how they're doing it but there seems to be a lot of manipulation going on here. Meanwhile expect further pressure donwards. Delaying any sort of results is generally a mistake, so hopefully the xmas trading update will be within the next couple of weeks.

YoungEngineer, your summary is essentially incorrect. Next has been regarded as one of the main bellwethers of online retailing non-food for a long time. Every demographic is facing challenges, not least the over thirties with mortgage pressures etc. As I and many others have said, Next have evolved and adapted superbly to the changing retail environment. Whether they eventually come unstuck remains to be seen. Nevertheless, one thing is abundantly clear; Next have had excellent management over the last few years whereas Asos have had a bunch of chancers who have made serious errors of judgement. Next - UP 85% in the last five years, Asos DOWN 85% in the last five years...speaks for itself. Quite frankly I've had enough of people, both within the company, and shareholders on here, making continual excuses with hope and promises of jam tomorrow. I predict an update this month when Asos will confirm a mediocre at best run up to Xmas and the sp continuing to drift in the present region of 3.50 to 4.30 on the hope of bid speculation. Good luck to all shareholders. Be prepared for further disappointment in the short term, but if you're patient, perhaps a return to better things in two to three years if they can get through this turbulent time.

Looks like the markets have got wind that Asos and Boohoo (both 4.60% shorted), and others, had a subdued Xmas. Retail online clothing is generally still struggling except for the real smart guys. Neither company is going anywhere unless the bid speculation comes to fruition.

HI Moneyshark, thanks for the suggestion! I know I can ignore the offer.

I thought about selling what I have, but quite frankly it now amounts to only a couple of hundred quid. I may as well hold, and pray for a miracle. At least if people stump up the new issue, the cash will help the company, although I suspect the CEO will be left taking up a lot of the shares. If the company fails, at least I will be able to offset the whole 'loss' against capital gains tax liabilities elsewhere!

....apologies, we did in fact discuss the credit facility cacallation some time back. I may have repeated myself somewhat on this placing situation. Sorry for that. Still reeling from the losses I've incurred!