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Basically I see this as an approximate swap of shareholdings between T Rowe and Goldman Sachs. Rowe as far as I can see has been a long term holder and supporter of the share. I think today they have reduced their holding by about 40%, retaining about 6% of the stock (still considerable). I'm surprised by two things. Why have Rowe reduced now, just as we see possible light at the end of the tunnel? They have been patient until now. Maybe they are just adjusting their risk but to me it seems an odd time. Secondly, the day after the trading update, Goldman Sachs retained their uninspiring 'neutral' stance on the stock. A couple of weeks later and we see this substantial purchase. One wonders if they are acting for someone else...let's hope so!
Sharefall.......Good point, the GAM short position of 1.78% hasn't changed since 26th October when they sold at about £6.45. Forty eight hours later they could have bought back at £5.60 and made a profit of over £1.5m. Presently they're on a loss of about £2.2m and probably have had to pay to extend. They had the opportunity in December to close out at about a fiver making £2.5m profit. It's almost as if they've forgotten about it lol.
Why are people selling at £0.80p ?? I know it's a thin market and tech orientated companies are out of favour but this to me is undervalued, but there again I thought this at £1.50 . No doubt the Ukraine/Russia war is a risk to the share that people simply don't like.
This appears an interesting play. Nothing seemingly wrong with half year figures in September despite being disrupted by Ukraine. Year end to 31/12/22 due towards end of March. Sector is out of favour so could drift down further. I'm tempted at the price today. Is there something we don't know or just a thin market?
West6809 Fair comment, and you make some good points which I largely agree with. A large gripe of mine as you know has been the management of this company. To be fair, certain circumstances have been out of their control, as demonstrated by other online retailers' equally disappointing results. Nevertheless the sp was in freefall for ages while the ship was rudderless. I blame a lot of my loss on them. We still have a temporary CFO, leaving soon, and a promotion within CEO who has suddenly seen the light with cost savings of £300m within a year. The plan looks promising and I agree if it comes to fruition, your target exit point is, in my view certainly better than 50/50. There will be hurdles ahead. There is a rumour of more large jobs cuts. I see 2023 as a time where they make to make the business leaner and fitter for the future. Also, many online retailers took the high street for granted and assumed traditional retailing had gone forever. While there is no question that the internet has changed the way we shop for good, the high street is evolving too with many outlets seeing large growth in sales. They may be late to get on the train but these companies are now switching to hybrid models, diversifying their business and not relying on just one stream. They should not be ignored. They will fight to retain market share. It's interesting how I've only really just realised just how susceptible online retailers are to things outside their control. Unforeseen circumstances. Eg, Royal Mail strikes, Cyber attacks etc.
I also see that B of A have marked up the prospects of ASC and Boohoo today. Even they say they might be early to do so, but on balance they are probably right that this is a good entry point if one is prepared to wait a couple of years. I haven't read their full comments yet but I believe they've stressed one caveat.......that these online retailers deliver on their cost savings this year thereby ensuring their future. Finally, as I've recently said, it would be a good sign to see the Directors showing a bit of faith in the business by purchasing the shares.
It seems there are people in here who are in denial. US revenue growing? Even ASOS admit in their trading update that sales were down 2% in the USA for the four months to 31/12/22. The USA market will be difficult to break. It is hugely protectionist. I sometimes wonder if I am reading the same trading update as everyone else. Given Asos's update and Boohoo's similar gloomy figures, both these companies are up against for a significant time. I simply read through the BS in both their optimistic statements and see it how it is. Online retailing has stalled. The shares in both, in my opinion, will continue to trade at roughly the present levels for quite some time yet unless either a takeover approach is muted or the economy dips further.
The BOOHOO trading update reaffirms my stance on ASOS. It's a similar trend. In order to demonstrate any profitability this year, they really only have one choice and that is to cut costs and, mark my words, that means more job losses. At least the company realises the stark choices ahead. Their online models are difficult to change dramatically. Too much emphasis is placed on facilitating growth and relying on high volume at low margins. When a downturn like this happens, they're in a bit of a problem. Not helped by the cessation of the covid crisis, and the fighting back of the high street retailers. In my view the hybrid model, chosen by the likes of Next and run by people who know what they're doing, is the way ahead. I stand by my previous assessments.
This a disappointing update. I was hoping there would be a difference in trend to that of Asos. Given the poor short term outlook for online retailing generally, I for one will not be investing at this price. Failing better news I can see this drifting downwards again. As with ASC the only way to sustain a decent profit this year will be by cost cutting....and that will probably mean job cuts. The shortlived pandemic-era boost in online shopping is over. Companies like this need to reform or face the consequences.
One financial press assessment today:
''Asos plans to cut office space, close warehouses and ditch 35 poorly performing brands as it fights to return to profit.
The company has also axed 100 corporate jobs and will shut storage facilities in Britain, Europe and the USA. The cuts are part of 'profitability measures' worth £300m this year that Asos has identified. Prices will also rise in the 'low single digits' as it shifts from focusing on growth to turning a profit. The major restructure follows poor festive trading, with British sales down 8% in the run up to Xmas. Asos blamed strikes at Royal Mail. Shares jumped 15pc yesterday in an apparent vote of confidence in the strategy''
After all the euphoria on here today, the above precis, while encouraging in certain aspects shows the true challenges that lay ahead. At least they have identified they were wasting money left right and centre. This bunch have a lot to prove. Now the update is out, presumably the directors can put their money where their mouth is. We shall see. The present interim CFO announced she had decided to jump ship this coming June. Hopefully we won't have a repeat of the CEO debacle. Meanwhile, the shorters in my opinion are well and truly dug in for a battle.
Paulleydee.......Yes I agree. JP Morgan giving one of the more realistic target figures. As I've just commented below, IF the company achieve what they say the can through these cost savings, then I can see no reason why the price shouldn't get to that level later in the year. Worth a small punt for a new investor, but as a medium term holder, I personally am not adding.
Isestocks23......I concur with most of what you say, although I reserve judgement on BooHoo until I see their figures. If their revenue also shows a similar percentage reduction then maybe ASC figures and explanation can be justified.
My immediate attention went straight to that £300 million identified cost savings in the current year to August 2023. That is a huge amount (which probably blows my forecast of a slight loss this year out of the water) and it begs the question what on earth was going on before within the business. Okay, it's water under the bridge but the seemingly rudderless state of the company over the last couple of years has significantly eroded many people's investment which I, as a relatively small holder, am still very unhappy about.
With UK down 8%, the USA down 2%, Europe up 6%, Rest of World down 31% (albeit some due to Russia) it still doesn't paint a particularly rosy picture. However, if those savings predictions are genuinely feasible with margins consequently improved, then the company will obviously be in a leaner and fitter position to move forward. I too will hold ftb in the hope of recovering my initial investment.
I find the extent of the initial jump in price a little surprising but it's clearly a combination of reasons. Also I suspect some profit taking will occur with the price settling bit lower than this morning. I just hope there isn't going to be another cycle of new shorters entering the fray at this level with a repeat of what we have seen over the last several months.
I believe this is starting to look interesting.
Despite my previously reported reservations about the founders, I think nevertheless there is, on balance, money to be made here. And that's what it is all about. One doesn't need to like the operation in order to benefit.
The p/e ratio is now ridiculous for a so called growth stock. Lots of small shareholders will be unhappy about the sp but many others in the same sector are suffering the same fate. Any potential new investors will be tempted at this price.
Personally I think that Boohoo should get things perfected on the home front first. That's where they know the market inside out. So many in the past (and present) have been caught out by the protectionist USA. Caution is required there as they will do their very best to make sure any outside business struggles to get a foothold.
The USA is not the be all of everything. Look at the big names who have failed over there. Caution is required.
The 'big' shorters total under 5%. Still not comfortable but a distinct improvement. That is not to say there are a few shorters at around 0.49% that are not disclosed.
It's obviously difficult to call the bottom but I'm close to putting a bit in here. The trends look promising. My only caveats are the shorts and the gloomy economic forecasts, although a lot of this must surely be already built in.
Special Resolution: ''That the Company is authorised to make one or more market purchases of ordinary shares of the Company, provided that such power be limited to a maximum number of 5,000,753 Shares and the power hereby conferred shall expire on the earlier of the conclusion of the next AGM of the Company or 10 April 2024''
Claire Smith.......this type of resolution is fairly common. It does not mean they WILL buy back shares. It gives them the option and flexibility to do so. In my view they need all the cash to see them through, rather than buy back shares in the short term. For you to be enthusiastic about the high level of shorters shows limited understanding of how these operators work.
Also, the remuneration levels are too high and I'm disappointed they were passed. For example the CEO's basic pay stays at £700,000....he must be heartbroken! Okay, he's only been in that position from about June but I believe he was promoted from within. Basically, reward for failure. His potential bonus this year is an extra 150% of salary, 30% of that will be based on revenue increases..(not profit). You say the directors looked 'happy and relaxed'. Funnily enough I'm not surprised by that.
Hello Velo Many thanks for your comments. I was already aware of the aspects you mentioned.
To be clear, I do not know that the full year to Aug 2023 WILL result in a net loss. I came to that conclusion after assessing factors we already know about (including the CEO's pledge to commence the overhauling of the business model in the current financial year). From it I surmise it is unlikely they will achieve so much in such a short period of time so as to end on a profit for y/e Aug '23. This is not to say that a turnaround will not have commenced, but any profit in my opinion will not filter through until 2024, perhaps beyond.
As I understand it, no full term guidance in terms of profit to Aug '23 was given due to uncertainty in the market place. A prediction of a loss at year end would not have gone down well with anyone.
I have based my assumption on numerous factors, and not least the track record of the current management which has been abysmal. It will be interesting how the AGM goes tomorrow in respect of remuneration and performance etc.
When the last results were announced, not enough emphasis was placed on the huge task ahead. Even then the forecasts were gloomy, and now they're dire. Household budgets are going to be squeezed drastically in 2023 particularly for low income earners. We have not seen anywhere near the full impact yet and ASC, even at the cheap end, will not go unscathed.
Lots of stock has already been written off (£130m!!!! ?). I predict another writedown. A poor decision to overbuy in the fickle fashion industry. Pre-Xmas the company has understandably been eager to achieve high revenue to demonstrate success and not to break a continuous upward trend, years on years. Other retailers' figures have held up fairly well. Asos SHOULD do the same. Unfortunately I suspect it will be at the expense of margins as the discounts this year at around 80% were higher than Nov/Dec 2021 (70%).
Asos operate in a busy space....and it's becoming busier with the likes of Shein, Boohoo, Zalando, dozens of others and even Amazon all vying for a bigger share. Mergers, takeovers etc will be inevitable in a crowded market. The high street re-emergence (even if short lived) must also be taken into account.
Hopefully ASC will come out of this leaner and profitable. High turnover is meaningless without correct margins. I think recovery may take longer than some think, unless a takeover or merger proposition appears.
Finally, there's very little movement in the shorts. That is of continued concern.
Dead_Stock - I'm not sure whether to congratulate you on your bravery or admonish you for your rash decision to invest so much in one stock. I'm dubious about your first post.
You say....''They need to make only 2% profit for the share to go to 800 to 1000 next day''....Not sure how you deduce this. Asos is not going to make a profit for the current financial half year, and is unlikely to do so in 2023. It may start to turnaround it's fortunes but that is a big 'may'.
High Street retail stores held up well pre-xmas particularly at the lower end. It might be that we are starting to see a new trend, with the high street fighting back and people starting to return. Interuption in deliveries pre-xmas (Royal Mail) and increasing returns have hit online businesses. I believe the likes of Next have the correct formula - a high street presence together with a highly efficient online business.
Trading4good......With all your defence of this company, I'm beginning to wonder if your middle name is Kamani lol.
You said to me in November that I was basically talking 'nonsense'. This is probably your favourite word! I mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a profit warning in January. You said ''I presume you are aware that Boo's financial year end is February, so it is extremely unlikely that any profit warning would come then (January) as January and February are dead months. If any profit warning is to be issued it would most likely be December.'' Well it didn't come in December, so we will soon find out if there is one this month.
You query why Aldebaran is making so many comments (looks like 20 comments in the last 30 days), which you must admit is a bit rich coming from you who has made over 500 in the same period!
I largely stand with my previous comments. Boohoo will eventually come out of this a leaner and fitter enterprise and may well be worth investing in for the medium or long term for those who are patient. I expect any trading update to see a small increase in turnover, but warnings of a very difficult 2023. Expect a lot of returns in early January. At least the company was sensible in introducing return fees. Several other companies have followed suit.
With shorts still being over 5%, it is clear the big boys still don't see this as a quick recovery play. I look forward to the update. I guess it will be very guarded.
In addition to the rumours of underwhelming trading for both Boohoo and ASC over the Christmas period, we have continued gloomy retail sales forecasts. Some more companies (probably the smaller ones) are inevitably going to go under. Boohoo and Asos will survive barring any more catastophies, but continue to drag each other down on every piece of pessimistic news. I believe both will continue the downward trend given the high likelihood of disappointing updates.
It's tempting at this level, but I won't consider buying into Boohoo until I see updates. As I have said so many times before, the Shorts still have it at the moment. The best hope of any near term recovery would be a takeover approach. And don't be surprised if Kamani is thinking of a private route. That would infuriate small shareholders. What a disappointment this 'growth stock' must be for current holders.
Ammu.....they probably are undervalued unless trade deteriorates next year. On balance I think this is a good recovery play.
As an aside, please do not basically call me a liar. I am not shorting this share. I've never shorted anything, it's too risky. I leave that to the big players .......the likes of Marshall Wace etc.