Member Info for simon1367

Smuggler: Thank you for clarifying this. I for one was unaware of the difference when it came to a physical sell put. Cheers.

Turtlehead : Agreed, You explained it better than me. I saw this brief definition at investopedia :

''Selling puts generates immediate portfolio income to the seller, who keeps the premium if the sold put is not exercised by the counterparty and it expires out of the money. An investor who sells put options in securities that they want to own anyway will increase their chances of being profitable''

I've been looking at Frasers' derivative dealings on Asos :

1. Sold put option, Expiring Sept 2023 % of Voting Rights being 1.958. 2. Sold put option expiring Oct 2023 VR 4.642% 3. Sold put option expiring Nov 2023 VR 1.2018% 4. Sold put option, expiring Dec 2023 VR 0.8386% 5. Sold put option Expiring Jan 2024 VR 0.0922% . These were mostly tranacted in Jul & Aug when the SP was under £4.

I believe this indicates MA is fairly bullish on the share. As the SP goes up, the happier he should be as he, potentially, has the opportunity to own the shares at a future date at a lower cost base. It's interesting that the highest 'sell put' contract of 4.64% expires in October which, coincidentally is when their year end results are due. Make of that what you will.

Thank you Knowbody. I appreciate your comment.

In the past I have sold at the bottom (not Asos) and regretted it. I've averaged down to approx £7.50 and think that is now a good bet to at least recover my losses. And if there are continued signs of recovery, the momentum will hopefully see the sp go beyond. And if there's a t/o approach even better. That doesn't stop me being somewhat apprehensive leading up to any update and the results. As you know, I personally take more notice of the shorts than others do, because more often than not, the big players make a big living out of it.

PS....the greener pastures have alluded me recently. There are not many individual shares I would care to take a bet on at the moment.

Ahananda : What part of my last comments are BS? Please elucidate. By all means state a rational opposing view, but please do not come back with simply an abusive comment because my views don't match yours.

Given that Asos is presently, under declared figures, the highest shorted share on the stock exchange, I respectfully suggest that quite a lot of informed shareholders are, to say the least, a touch worried. I don't call that BS.

I don't see anything heating up in the 'short term'. Declared shorts have been steadily increasing over the last few weeks and are now at a worrying 5.35%. This can only mean that those hedge funds, rightly or wrongly, believe that there will be a disappointing update in the next couple of weeks, or that the end of year figures due to be announced in the second week of October, will be lacklustre.

Expect more volatility over the next month with the SP only being supported by the t/o gossip. The question is, do these hedge funds know anything we don't, or are they all acting on a hunch or following each other like lemmings?

The three main shareholders, by the way, don't give a fig about short term volatility. Each of them have their own medium to long term agendas. I'd love to see the precise details of Fraser' put derivatives though. That would be quite revealing.

The manoevering and and other speculations at Asos can only be good news for Boohoo's SP. The t/o fever might spread here! With Povlsen in the driving seat as a major holder in Asos, MA may well turn his attention to here, and up his stake further. It's worth remembering that I think nearly half MA's holding in Asos is only by way of 'put derivatives' whereas his holding here are I believe wholly owned. One thing you can say about MA. He is predictable in being unpredictable.

I mentioned on Friday (25th) that this increase in holding by Polvsen was a distinct possibility to strengthen his position and return the holding above 25%. His subsidiary had long maintained that they intended to hold in excess of 25% as a long term strategic partnership. They're simply back to a similar percentage holding to what they were a some while back. Polvsen is a smart cookie and is no doubt keeping a very close eye on MA.

In terms of the share dealings in Asos (and indeed other shares) I have long lost faith in the accuracy of the daily quoted dealing one sees on the usual stock exchange sites open to the public. In my view, these massive transactions are often undertaken out of sight between brokers/intermediaries. All too often their is a lack of transparency.

MA is buying here for the same reason he's buying into Asos and other retailers. It's all part of his strategy to have a finger in every pie.. For the most part, at these prices, it's a win/win situation. More to the point, shareholders should keep an eye on the famiy owners and their holdings. In my view, if they feel the SP continues to disappoint and doesn't reflect the true value of the business, eventually one day there will be an attempt to take it private which will really p**s off long term small shareholders

It's interesting to see that Povlsen, and Willam Barker (Camelot hedge fund) holdings are, for want of a better expression, 'wholly owned physical shares'. Camelot has been mopping up a few from the market recently to up their interest to about 14%. I believe Polvsen has a holding of about 22% . However Frasers' (Ashley) is officially only the third largest overall 'share holder' at 10.6% but also holds about an extra 9% of voting rights through derivatives. Basically he (Ashley) is borrowing them. At some point I imagine these derivatives will need to be unwound or extended. As with his other holdings in various companies, Ashley likes 'influencing' and a say in the way a company is run. However, he is not normally one to make a takeover bid. On the contrary, he prefers to pick up companies on the cheap (often when they're in a distressed state) or alternatively by benefitting from any early signs of a turnaround. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. All the while this manouevring carries on, the SP will be propped up by the t/o speculation. I wonder whether these developments will expose any other predators that are waiting in the wings that have not yet shown their hands. Or will Povlsen, a long term strategic partner, try to up his stake. He is said to be keen to keep Asos as an independent entity. There is no love lost between him and Ashley. The press should be all over this over the weekend!

**** Sorry that first sentence should have read the beginning of the second week of ''SEPTEMBER'' ****. This summer has gone by so quickly!.

I anticipate an update from Asos around the beginning of the second week of August once they have assessed their August sales. Final results are presently due on 12th October.

With another one entering the fray yesterday (Shadowfall), the hedge funds have already signalled their view. I know a bit about Shadowfall and that adds to the nervousness of the next few weeks.

Personally I don't see this as a time to buy in order to average down. An opportunity to buy lower is probable in my view.

I stand by my comments of the last couple of weeks despite the unpalatable short-term undertones. Having said that, I repeat my opinion that this is a medium/long term recovery play.

Knowbody: Maybe I mention this aspect too much on here. But nevertheless it is, more often than not, a very simple key indicator. I say it as I see it. I'm still holding for recovery in the medium term. I'm not trying to influence the sp downwards. I'm still in for the medium term to at least break even, but live in the hope that the present t/o interest comes to fruition.

The big short players are gradually increasing their positions. Declared figure now 4.56%. Boohoo not far behind, with Marshall Wace upping their position there weekly. I don't think this is a coincidence. Either they know something already, or they have come to the logical conclusion from the last three months poor ''online non food sales'' that a profit warning is more likely than not. The charts continue to show downward trends. I see Asos wavering between £3 and £4. Expect Frasers to pick up some more on the cheap.

Newboy41 : Mike Ashley is a maverick, detested by many in the city. He's relinguished the day to day control of his main company Frasers to his son in law, but everyone knows who's really in charge. Many of the strategic positions he takes in companies are held by his private investment firm MASH holdings. He's also known as a bit of a vulture, preying on vulnerable companies. He either buys them on the cheap through administration, or if they are successful in turning around their fortunes, he benefits from his strategic holdings. He has caused ruptions in various companies such as Mulberry. He's unpredictable but largely highly successful as can be demonstrated by Frasers, including SportsDirect. He has had his failures, particularly his fight over Debenhams. I believe he's suing the administrators!

Knowbodyyouknow: You're absolutely correct concerning the need for a quoted company to disclose a very important development immediately. Therefore do you think they should have notified the market and shareholders of the approach by Turkish company Trendyol in December last year of a £10 - £12 per share offer? Damn right they should have, but they didn't! I don't entirley trust this executive board. Look how they said they weren't in need of raising cash and a week or two later it happened!

Finally, just because a shareholder reaches a holding of 30% or above does not necessarily mean they are obliged to make a bid. Yes, that is the usual default position, but the takeover panel can listen to any potential predator for their arguments as to why they shouldn't have to bid. In Asos's case, because the largest shareholder has only about 26%, there is a good argument that Frasers would need to bid. However, they own 37% of Mulberry and were let off bidding because the major shareholder held 56%.

Netzero really: I've stated the facts. I'm sorry if you find it unpalatable. It's called reality. It's all very well people on here wanting to hear nothing but the positives in the hope of ramping up the shares. It doesn't work like that. Unfortunately anything said on here has virtually no impact on the overall market. If you disagree with my opinion today and of 14th August, please go ahead and give some rational argument as to why you think I'm wrong in my assessment.

Without any more positive updates regarding the progress being made, the next few weeks look ominous. I still feel that there is more than a chance of a profit warning of sorts. Since 3rd July, declared shorts have risen from 1.23% to 4.37%, which as I reiterated before, is largely down to a gloomy summer, and declining non-food online sales figures over the last three months. All clothes retailers must have been hit. May -3%, June -1% and July -7%. On the back of these depressing figures, I can see why the shorts are back in business. They perhaps see another bite of the cherry before any turnaround is proven in year end figures

As someone else has mentioned, Sheltie failed to mention that the target price for Lloyds Bank by Shore Capital is 42p....which it already is!!! Yes, they think the shares are undervalued. Well most of us do, but they are still slowly dropping. This has been a pig of a share, down 20% in six months. Surely this is a good entry point despite nervousness and provisions in the Mortgage sector.

While disappointed by the performances of the CFO and CEO during this period, I'm glad there doesn't appear to be any further big surprises ahead (famous last words). Once this company has a couple of decent replacements, it should progress on a sound footing. Jim Slater who passed away some years back always thought Restore had huge potential. It lost focus recently but has sufficient repeat business to see this through. It was sensible to cut the dividend to help reduce debt. I'm tempted to top up at this level. I'll wait my usual three days to monitor the reaction in the market.