Member Info for simon1367

My £10k is now worth £7.8k. And that is with income reinvested over the last few years. What a load of rubbish. Just pray that it will recover as interest rates gradually reduce.

There isn't going to be any divergence between Asos and Boohoo. They are, in numerous ways, cut from the same cloth! They will always drag each other up or down. That's common sense and how sectors work.

We should also put paid to the silly figures being plucked out of the air on here re a possible takeover price, if it were to happen. Asos' MC is about £460million. Takeover approaches are mostly on companies in a vulnerable position. The premium offered above a SP often looks generous (but of course reflects the SP weakness). However premiums are often + 20/30% and rarely above 50/60%. If we look on the optimistic side and say 60%, that puts a price of about £6 or a MC of aprox £750m. No-one should delude themselves that an offer of £10 or £15 is achievable. £10 is a 160% premium and just ain't going to happen. These guys are not in it to do a favour for ordinary shareholders. They're in it for a bargain.

To give you an idea of how badly managed Boohoo is compared to Next: Boohoo SP down 91% over three years despite having the bigger advantage in the covid years. Next up 17% over the same period. Not only that but Next have upped their guidance three times in the last five months. Boohoo, as well as the likes of Asos, have an online model that hasn't moved with the times. Both companies need a good shake up. If the likes of Next, Primark and Sports Direct, with the added costs of the high street, can prosper in this very challenging environment, then online only retailers should at the very least be on a par with them. To me it demonstrates the difference in quality of management. Simple as that.

TomBeef : William Barker is .... Camelot Capital Partners, a hedge fund based in California.

What a dog of a share. When I read the trading update, in terms of reasons and excuses, it almost mirrored Asos' update, including those magical phrases 'cost savings identified' and focusing on 'more profitable lines' blah blah blah. It could have been written by the same accountant lol. The only difference really in my view is that Boohoo presently has a reasonably strong balance sheet which gives it some resilience. I'm tempted to invest for a quick profit on a bounce but then there's expression 'falling knife'. To think that the market capitalisation of Boohoo and Asos combined is about £800m is crazy. Both these companies days as independents are numbered. I've said it before, but I think Kamani would love to take this back into private hands. but I he would be llynched if he tried. The problem is in the short term, Ashley could buy more at this price and end up being the biggest shareholder! Interesting that Barker is invested here too.

GloucesterR: I can understand some of your reasoning today on the company's prospects. I'm roughly down 50% on my overall investment and so would like to hope your assessment turns out correct. Regrettably, I don't really agree with some of your comments. I've been a holder for ages and I'm clearly not as enthusiastic as you, particularly when it comes to the likes of Jose Calamonte. I am not convinced this CEO. (who was the former CFO) and some of his team are the right people to take this company forward (and I'm pretty sure MA doesn't think so either). JC and his team were the ones who largely put us in this mess in the first place and, actually, they haven't been particularly transparent during this journey when I first followed them from around £60 per share, and bought at £53. I recall times when shareholders were misled. And, who on earth thought it a good idea to buy roughly a billion pounds worth of stock....in a fickle industry like fashion? The result was inevitable: millions written off. Then he refinanced the revolving credit faciltiy an exhorbitant interest rate from dodgy lenders to try and fend off MA. At the same time he raised capital through a £4.18p 'placing' just a week after he had said there was no plans or need to raise cash! Old stock is being sold dirt cheap to bring in some cash. FCF is periously low and JC is now still trying to dig himself out of a hole partially of his own doing. To be fair, he and his team have identified savings (but which should have been spotted a lot earlier) and there are now, to his credit, indications that a turnaround is occurring albeit slowly. He now says the blinking obvious of the importance of demonstrating profitability rather than increasing revenue for the sake of it. Meanwhile, The market analysts think this sector is overcrowded and that the likes of Asos and Boohoo are going to struggle what with numerous others chipping away at their customer base. The shorts are unequivocal on this. The SP is around £4 for a good reason. I and many analysts think it's a foregone conclusion that Asos' days as an independent company are numbered. The share structure may indicate that Polvsen might propose Asos becomes part of his Bestseller business. He dislikes MA (they have previous history) and sees Asos as apart of his long term plans. For MA, its a win/win situation. He either gets an opportunity if things go pear shaped, or benefits if the SP rises through a takeover approach or there are better than expected results. Hedge fund owner, Barker, has joined the board which is in my view comes with Polvsen's approval and, is again a defensive move against MA. Expect a continuing price range of around £3.50 to £4 for the next few weeks while the shorts play their games.

Ben Marlow's comment piece in the Telegraph is a very good reminder of what may be going on under the surface at Asos. He implies the company's days as an independent concern are numbered and that it will end up being part of either Polvsen's Bestseller , Ashley's Frasers, or some other conglomerate. From my perspective I hope he is right, as it will probably save me waiting a couple of extra years to get my money back.

Fairly similar to my prediction yesterday. Overall neutral. But, my word, what a long old slog this is going to be unless someone like MA seriously enters the fray to really sort out what, arguably, is a business that needs shaking up quickly to produce value for shareholders.

The overall message is that progress is being made, albeit painfully slowly. The figures produced are sufficiently uncertain to encourage both the investor and the shorter. I see the price continuing to drift downwards a little, although looking in 2 years time, today's sp could be seen as a bargain.

I expected the sales decline. That was clear from previous retail reports. Free cash flow is significantly below guidance, which is a worry and margins are not increasing quickly enough. Hopefully, lower inflation will help idc. Inventory still too high imo, ...more writedowns in the pipeline?

However do not discount another capital raise in the next twelve months if the free cashflow continues to present a problem . Also this is a packed market. Despite what people say on here, I see Shein as a huge threat. In the last 2 years it is yet another company that has eaten into the share of the market. (UK is now Sheins main European target. It has also changed it's domicile to Singapore recently in the hope of listing in NY. )

This was a slightly more detailed update than I expected, which leaves, hopefully, little to be surprised about next month with the final figures.

Also note the appointment of Barker to the board last week. I see that as a defensive move against MA.

My forecast prior to today was that Asos was going to announce sales as below guidance, but that progress has been made re improved margins and continued cost savings. I also expect them to put some sort of positive spin on evidence of improved sales since their financial year end. End result: a neutral effect on the SP with a risk of perhaps a slight downturn. Any indication of 'genuine' progress being made, albeit small, will be a buy sign for me.

However, I am apprehensive at the new declared shorted figure of 7.47 %. This is a huge figure compared to Boohoo, who are the 2nd highest shorted share on the exchange at 4.90%. I am really hoping the hedge funds are just in it for a very quick gamble on a volatile week.

However, IF they've got wind of something we do not know about, then we will be in for a rough ride.

Temuchin: in answer to your question, Frasers has 10 .58% in physical shares, and 7.71% in derivatives meaning he presently has an overall interest of 18.29% of the company.

From memory another contract of the puts (I think about 4.5%) may expire in October, which could mean he either he reduces his interests, or conversely increases his physical shares.

West6809.....I wonder how different analysts come to such different conclusions about the fair value of a share. I do look at the likes of Morning Star and Trustnet for information, although mostly for IT's and Oiecs. So MS has fair value at £19.10. Looking at Simply Wall St, they think fair value is £5.25 . I sometimes wonder whether they just pluck a figure out of the air, before going to the pub...or perhaps when they come back!

Despite the shenanigans that go on in the markets, I've come to the conclusion that 'fair value' is invariably the average stock exchange price quoted over a few days!

Barkils: thanks for the link, although I couldn't find the info regards Camelot as it came up 'failed'.

However, what I did see was the news of the closure of Asos' discount ''Outlet Department'' with the possible loss of 15 employees, and also the news of Asos' plans to discontinue 35 unprofitable brands as part of their turnaround plans. This demonstrates their determination to clear out areas which are a distraction to the core business.

As a side-note, I see H&M are yet another company who have decided to introduce a 'returns fee of £1.99' for both their online and high street store businesses( apart from their loyalty members). It can only be a matter of time before Asos follows suit.

Interesting appointment of Barker (Camelot), strengthening the board. More significant than perhaps people think. Sounds like a defensive move against possible predators.

Ragtrade, with respect, I think the opposite has been the case. It is generally accepted that the unseasonal weather in the summer may have subdued sales, whereas I suspect the good weather from the end of August has improved things a bit

Regarding the poor summer weather, Kingfisher - B&Q (the 3rd highest shorted share) reported disappointing half year figures yesterday blaming the weather and macroeconomics. The shorts had a great day. As I've said before, it's silly to totally ignore them when the percentage is that high. Notwithstanding a probable decline in sales (maybe if of 10%or so), I think Asos shares will be okay if they can demonstrate that the cost savings are coming through as projected. If they are, the rest of things should eventually come good.

Jtrade1....I understand your concern. Declared shorts have risen from 2.17% three months ago to 6.76% now, by far the highest on the whole stock exchange. Anyone who suggests ignoring this aspect is just hoping the problem will go away of its own accord. Maybe it will, but the message it nevertheless gives is that one should be cautious about buying when the professional gamblers are betting on being able to buy back cheaper at a later date. It is of course just one of a number of indicators.

Regarding Frasers derivatives dealings, there's a further 4.54% due for expiration in October. One previous commenter on here suggested that as all these 'sell puts' were on 'physical' shares, MA was expected to receive delivery. Well that hasn't happened this month.

As for explanation for the changing of the trading update day because of a shortage of analysts around that they wanted; sorry but I don't buy it. I consider that a fairly feeble but convenient excuse at best . It's more likely in my view that they simply wanted a little bit more time to evaluate the first few weeks of trading in September when the weather markedly improved, so that they could put a little extra positive spin on things beginning to turn around.

Fairly sure there's little to worry about at Next. Their last guidance was good given the gloomy conditions and they generally have a habit of over delivering. Their business model is not only different but superior. It's a much better run company, hence Next up + 23% this year and Asos down - 40%. Personally, I don't think Next's results will give much of a clue as to how Asos has done.

The shares have been a disappointment. I've sold today after owning for a couple of years or so. Out with a tiny profit. In reality the shares have been a dog. If you had invested 3 years ago and had the divs reininvested you'd still be down over 4%. If you were lucky to invest a year ago, you're up 10%. They may have further to go but I've lost patience. Better value elsewhere.

Savvy....''ASOS is as well run now as any company with a good balance sheet and huge cash flow ''........with respect, that remains to be seen. Let us see later this month how they have performed against their peers. The overall impression on this forum is that the shares are set to rally. The shorts disagree.

On the subject of the shorters, I am still trying to clarify the overall declared position. Here at LSE it's quoted as 5.28%. ShortTracker has it as 6.59% which includes Arrowstreet at 1.31% . Arrowstreets position of 1.31% seems to have been unchanged since 18th July. Does this mean the short position on lse has been mis-stated by this percentage all this time? Has anyone got some insight as to the correct declared position? Arrowsmith, by the way shorted at £3.77.

My word, how refreshing to see a company doing well and excelling in its sector. Let us just hope they stay on course without deviating into too many other areas thereby losing focus as so many other companies do. It looks fairly clear the top bods see revenues continuing to increase thereby enabling a maiden dividend. My only reservation is whether this is too soon. Nevertheless I'm tempted to add more despite the rise today. I think this company is due a re-rating. Once these figures have been digested by the city, this could take off.

Good update from ABF (includes Primark which accounts for more than 40% of its revenues). Primark like-for-like sales growth for the financial year is likely to be about 9%, and to be 7% in the second half of the year. What a well run high steet store. My local one is always packed out with youngsters. ABF sp up over 45% in the last year. They and MA's SportsDirect seem to know what they're doing. Let's hope these encouraging figures bode well for Asos and Boohoo results.