Member Info for simon1367

Jon, you don't seem to realise that fashions can often change virtually overnight.
Stock has to be held somewhere. Managing storage eats further into already thin margins.
It is obvious some of the stock will go stale. It will be dead stock.
I can assure you that a shorting level of 5% is not 'par for the course'. They are one of the biggest shoerted stocks on the exchange. That speaks volumes.

A great deal of effort has been made by Darktrace to emphase that Lynch (founder) and his wife have no involvement whatsoever with the company any more. However, Lynch and his wife still own 12% of the company. Given the problems he is facing, I still think it will cast some doubt with any potential suitor.

Jon Harris, I disagree with most of what you have said in the last few days.
You don't buy and store masses of stock in the fickle fasion industry.
The shorters have got their claws well and truly stuck into this stock; they are going nowhere at the moment.
Mike Ashley buys businesses generally when they are in trouble. He is not in the business of buying at a premium.
This share has certainly not reached the floor given the percentage of shorters in evidence.
Actions speak louder than words. This share continues to drift downwards.
The 'floor' will probably be at least another two quid south of the present price.

I should think that Mike Ashley is rubbing his hands watching this stock and Asos dropping like lead balloons. Surprised he hasn't got a small but significant strategic stake in BooHoo given he has a holding of about 3% in Asos. He's waiting to pounce.
I'm at a loss as to why the comapny has just taken over an almost bankrupt company (for £7million ?). Not a great move in my opinion when they're eating through cash already.
I do wonder if the Kamanis are going to take the opportunistic route by taking the company private by offering a price higher than the present but which would be an insult to many. On top of that. I've always had my doubts about the governance of boohoo and the involvement of the extended family with allegations of dubious prractices.

As I said before, Ashley is an opportunist who buys up, predominantly, very financially distressed or bankrupt enterprises. The vulture will have his beady eyes on this.
As I have also said time and again, ASOS is one of the highest shorted shares . It will shortly be the 3rd highest shorted share, as it seems Cineworld is filing for bankruptcy. There are several big shorters who know what they're doing (and please please rampers, do not delude yourself by thinking they don't). They've got their claws in and this share I do believe will continue a downward trend.
I still believe this company will survive but I reckon a cash call is on the cards by the year end. I'm on a big loss as am averaging £18. I'm still tempted to average down at nearer £5 which I see as a probable. It's a risky one though.

.....And the turmoil continues. There's always something going on with the heirachy of ASOS. First it was months without a CEO following which there was an uninspiring appointment. Now the CFO is going. No wonder themarket has acted negatively. I mean, the state of retail generally is bad enough without these acted factors.
ShearClass, your comments are largely spot on. The company could be in distress over the next 12 months, eating through a lot of cash. Holding masses amount of stock is old school and not financially astute particularly in the fickle fasion trade. As for Mike Ashley, we all know his Modus Operandi is to put in a last ditch offer when a concern is in or facing finacial distress or administration. He's a bargain hunter and has simply tipped his toes in so that if things go pear shaped, he's ready to pounce. Anyone who thinks he will put in a sensible offer now is, in my opinion, living in cloud cuckoo land.

Jon, steady on. You're trying to ramp up this share prematurely. More bad news before an improvement hopefully next year. Their margins are presently dire and I reckon there's a 50/50 chance of a cash call.
Interestingly, Isawitfirst was of course owned by one of the Kamani brothers (Boohoo connection). Also interesting that a Danish private company owns a stratrgic 25% of ASOS. I agree Mike Ashley's holding is relevant. He is however very unpredictable.

I'm sorry but this looks dire. Someone the other day suggested there wasn't a need for ASOS to prop up their balance sheet. I disagree. They are burning cash and if this trend continues they will be calling for institutional support or from existing shareholders within a year because they will be in breach of covenants. ASOS hopefully will see this through evenyually. Its going to be a tough time for online retailers for the next eighteen months at least. On top of that Shein will be making the most of it through their beneficial Chinese tax rates. It does not look good in the short term. I'm very tempted to just sell out above £10 and look for better opportunities. Quite frankly, I'm not sure what to do.

Ryanf I agree to an extent regarding the recession being priced in, but with one caveat. The colossal shorting simply cannot be ignored. These serious manipulators will almost certainly ensure the price will drift downwards. The shares have been volatile for a long time but it's usually two steps forward and then three steps back. These shorters have there claws well and truly stuck into this stock and so I see that trend continuing.

Why is Arnold being criticised? He's only stating the probable likelihood of the stock continuing on its downward trend. I think its almost stating the bleedin obvious. Take a look at the shorters. There are now eight serious players totalling 7.61% of the stock. Only two other shares on the stock exchange have more shorters, Kingfisher and guesss what?.....Boohoo. We're moving into recession. With the woes Asos already has, I think the time to buy in will be some months ahead.

I wonder what that sell deal today for about 247,000 shares for £1.12 was all about? That doesn't bode well.
I still don't understand the drift downwards. Things at the company seem to be going well.

I'm losing on this share significantly and still toying with cutting my losses for a better opportunity. But on balance I feel that mid term the company is more likey to be one of the survivers and that I will have a reasonable chance of getting my investment back. However, I agree with hey Arnold that the share price is likely to continue to drift downwards. There will be further difficult times in the next twelve months. I may try and average down a bit to recoup my losses later. This share is still heavily shorted (about the 4th highest shorted company on the exchange) and some of the guys doing it are more often right than wrong.

Why oh why do so many companies think that the USA is the way to go. The lure of the huge potential is too difficult to resist, but so many from the UK have been stung in years gone by. It's a difficult market to crack and the USA is protectionist. So, they've basically retreated from the USA and wasted all the money that investors stumped up for.....people must be sick as a pig to see the price slump.

Then there is a question mark of £23 million of loans to a joint venture in Japan. The statement implies to me there is doubt as to it's recoverability and also a muted comment about whether they will carry on in Japan in the long run.

That then leaves largely the UK where the directors have suddenly realised (doh!) there is room for further expansion. To the directors I say, stick to markets that you understand, UK and closer to home such as Europe.

And it will be interesting to see if the Directors show their confidence in the company by buying . What a volatile market AIM is. Far too much manipulation in dealings. I've seen this volatility so often before with the likes of fevr and asos (when it was in aim). My view is the drop is overdone. We're back to square one with a 2015 price tag. Only thing is, when is the entry point on a falling knife. I often go in too soon. Sometimes best to play the three day rule and if slightly lower and levelling off then may go in for a little punt. More often than not this stock rises nearer Xmas. It's just a question of going in at the right price in the hope there is no further profit warning. I hate this sort of update. It's full of bs talk to disguise bad news, so I'm still hesitant on this one.

Many apologies Hawthorn. My comments were meant to be directed at Bouveries who was talking about ADM being the biggest shorted share in the footsie 100 which I'm pretty sure is incorrect .

Hawthorn, the short-tracker sites don't as yet support the view that ''ADM is the most shorted share in the FTSE 100'' I'm sure there are some clients doing a few short deals but as far as I can see the percentage of stock must be small, unless you can demonstrate differently. I would have thought Kingfisher was miles ahead in the shorting compared to Admiral.

Toff, I think you've gone over the top with your criticisms. Yes, the Blackrock shorting at a big 4.71% does not bode well in the short term, granted. However FEVR has undeniably established itself as a premium brand, is a good product equal to or better than Schweppes. It has a good business model too for 'normal' times. I now see it as fair value and I would not be surprised to see one of the big boys taking a look at it and a complimentary product. Having said that I am hesitant to buy at this point due to Blackrock's instincts. They are no fools in this area.

The apparent update this Thursday will be full of cautious comment and assurances that where possible costs are being contained. The problem is, whilst this stock has tremendous prospects in a couple of years time (provided it survives the recession coming) , it has currently not a lot going for it. Germany is technically in recession already, the first time in decades, and as sure as hell the UK will follow. It is inevitable that this share has further to fall and the big shorters know what they are doing. I'm looking for an entry point to average down at. I'm currently in at a rather high £25 average having even bought earlier at £53. I don't usually concur with anything Boohoo does because I have doubts about their governance, but on this occasion I agree with their new stance on charging (albeit a small amount) for returns. Both Asos and Boohoo have been hemorrhaging money on high returns (someone told me it was over 25% of purchases) It has to be reduced and by charging a few quid to return an item will possibly encourage people to keep the product.

Shorts still 7.30% of the stock, the fourth highest shorting stock on the exchange behind the likes of Boohoo and Kingfisher.
I can see a temporary rise to 10 /11 ish, and then the continued trend down .....probably on the back of another cautionary announcement.

My only reservation is the high p/e ratio. There are high expectations for the share. I think it will take longer than envisaged.

There are little or no short positions on this stock. People who buy at HC are not so affected by price rises.
Despite the doom and gloom, I think this share will start creeping up again like it normally does the closer we get to Chtistmas!