Member Info for Scrodingerscat

That can't be right surely??? 85,000 ounces per annum estimated after it's operational and we have 1.5% of that. Are calidus desperate for cash because that's cost next to nothing with a great payout potentially for 8 years.

I'm not one for ramping but that's only one of the new site's with 3 other's to get more info from. I'm in the wrong business, the springhill project I gave lukewarm acknowledgement of as even if it pays out to it's full extent is worth $4.7M the time period being unknown. As this latest deal begins to unravel it may be one of our best yet for value, although the first 2 were excellent because we need some paying royalties now. That $10M a year revenue aim I thought would take 2 - 3 years to achieve but if the team keep getting deals at great values we could be there by 18 months or even less.

If long time holders head for the lifeboats at 7p why do you think people would panic at 20p? Even at 14p its still bagged from the lows. If oil is heading under $25 then il consider taking advice from a gambler/spreadbetter.

The salaries of what is in effect aviation/engineering consultants won't come cheap. Interesting seeing the company diversifying significantly away from it's roots as we acquire more companies. I estimate that we only have around £4M left in cash now, so any further acquisitions need to either be paid for by borrowing or dilution (please Phil no). Anyways, the Sutherland space port links hopefully will be good for cross selling potential for Sapienza.

A question I wanted to ask today is, does anybody know much about any progress made on the Lift BV front? We heard about Sapienza acquiring the majority shareholding but not much since. I wonder if the group uses it for it's own recruitment. Be nice to know if it has any intrinsic value beyond intangibles at this stage.

The share price hasn't acted logically for a while. The silence from the board doesn't help. I'm long enough in the game to say from experience those companies that have steady news flows even when the information released isn't great, with better investor relations tend to perform better. There's something to be said about keeping investor's updated with material developments, you feel part of the story rather than as some on here have done, made to feel like a nuisance just for emailing IR for some reassurance or semblance of a plan.

Our only hope not to slide further is entirely down to the price of oil at the minute, hopefully another draw down in the US reported tonight, and an estimated reduction of 4 million barrels not produced this week (report next week) and a further draw when those 37 million barrels head off to China in September. I think I'm going to turn off looking at this till September 9th. GLA

Oil is trading in a stable range. Everyone panicking today seems to be of a short term mindset. Global crude oil stocks are reducing and fewer and fewer companies are announcing new expenditure plans, as the rig count continues to fall the eternal demand vs supply balance will tip towards more demand than supply, OPEC+ are keeping these cuts till January. Oil rigs, even shale rigs take a long time to get from testing, through planning to rig construction then extraction. You also can't turn on idle rigs like a light switch. I didn't sell at 7p so I'm sure as hell not selling at this level. It will probably drop further but what has changed since the trading update or even when this was trading at 38p? Nothing, production is within guidance and the Brent price is $4 higher.

That's my entire point. The drillship is just one of the known unknowns, we don't know the costs (they are clearly higher than anticipated and contrary to what was released earlier in the period, that's for certain) and only reading in between the lines have people come to a break even point based on assumption.

Lot of guesswork coming off the back of a trading update that lacked any real substance, from the Business update 03.04.2020

"The Group's underlying operating costs remain less than $12/bbl, with Ghana operating costs at c.$9/bbl. With the benefit of the Group's hedging policy and production remaining on track within the Group's 70-80 kbopd guidance range, this results in a free cash flow breakeven oil price of c.$35/bbl for the rest of the year."

It's nothing to do with profit margins, EBITDA was £5.9M. The group was unprofitable in 2019 due to acquisition costs plus a tech infrastructure investment. I'm not as long in the tooth as some on here, those who have been in since the Corac days need a round of applause for patience but as someone who has been invested here for a significant amount of time I just want to see a small amount of bottom line profit. We all know the company currently prizes growth against everything else. Cartmell can chase his further acquisitions and growth target of £100M after at least one period without a loss. The company needs to prove to the market it can turn a profit only then will it move up, far too many shares in issue which is the cost of the dilution that eventually landed Westek, Polaris and Sapienza. Knowing TPG though there will probably be some additional acquisition, upgrade, R&D investment or unforseen cost that means no profit in H1. I'm staying put, but it's really simple until the market sees a profit this is still a loss making company as it has been for years. The difference now is it's a larger loss making company with a lot less cash and 3 times the revenue. If you want a share that spikes on growth alone and ignores all other fundamentals your invested in the wrong share, not even sure how you can make a sweeping generalisation about margins across the group let alone speculate about individual contract margins.

Energy demand is up in the Southern states and the Pacific coast. Record temperatures in the death valley, all those air conditioners on in a country with very little renewable energy means oil and gas demand is up. If we can stay in this range those idle rigs in the US will not become operational until spring 2021. Oil can stick here for a few more weeks as far as I'm concerned as it means higher prices in Autumn and Winter. As long as the US inventories continue to fall we are in a good position. The elephant in the room is the second wave but the United States hasn't finished the first yet.

A company that works primarily in East Africa has just announced a $60m oil and gas contract for a global provider, no mention of the partner so possibly prior to FID, Total maybe?

Great news, wonder which oil company this is for, this is clearly prior to FID hence no mention of the company, Total in Uganda maybe?

Ignoring the painful lack of movement today. The biggest news story is production in the US has dropped 300K, this wasn't predicted to start until September.

Most oilers are currently up around 4% today and TLW can't get to 2%. Looking at trades on the book, most rises appear to be countered by smaller sells executed at the exact same time. No doubt algorithms, but I'm not a manipulation conspiracy peddler. I'm hoping that today's API report announces a further draw this evening. Oil has been slowly trending up so that's good enough for now to stay bullish. The longer oil stays in this range the better, a quick rise to $50 is not currently in our interest as demand has not returned and will give a lifeline to Shale.

Sold out today, which is a shame because I like the company and it's ethos and still feel what it offers investors is unique. I have been invested for over 18 months and did plan to stick around longer. However, only one new contract win this year and the Covid-19 update advising a material revenue shift to 2021. In my opinion the share price will shortly head in one direction, the lack of a trading update is telling and previously released info doesn't point towards positive interims. The share price does appear to currently be propped up entirely by Cenkos hoovering up the shares for the company, so as long as that lasts the share price won't budge. I hope I'm wrong and that holders see a positive set of interim results.

Equally you can view it as an opportunity. I'm under water as I have been invested here for over 2 1/2 years. I'm thinking about selling my stake in Indivior (now this was a proper iron balls hold) and move a chunk of it to bring my average down closer to the 32p mark (currently at 38p). Will wait for the open tomorrow though.

We are at the same point when the UK was in lockdown, the world was over supplied with oil, we weren't on the brink of having an extra $500 million from the asset disposal, we didn't know that all operated and unoperated assets had beaten forecasts and the EIA was announcing huge inventory builds. The company is not a going concern, country wide lockdowns will not be reintroduced, most will now only react locally as test and trace measures are better than back in March. With little morality someone with deep pockets could in theory play the reporting thresholds and attempt to buy the whole company, £500 million would do it, nobody collectively has enough of a percentage to outright block a move (51%), take it private, stop production, sack everyone, honour the decommissioning costs and debt obligations, start winding up proceedings to dispose of all the assets when oil has recovered even to just $50 and make a few billion.

Just bear in mind Tullow has an estimated 1.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent and Ghana is easily worth anything from 3-5 billion even in a fire sale, it currently represents nearly $850 million of revenue per year even at these distressed levels.

I remember the heady days when Ghana was hinted at 180k per day production back in 2018, complete pie in the sky now. Lost faith in the leadership under Mcdade, so many wasted exploration drills and false production promises, trying to take Tullow to the next level and when many argued that in the short and medium term the focus should have been on Ghana and exiting East Africa as the government's of Kenya and Uganda have proved to be obstructive to FID for too long. Management now appears to be doing this but still it's 18 months later than it should have been.

Spreadbetter I presume? Here's my bet you have no leverage, as I'd be surprised if an institution would actually lend it to you. No person who ever put a football accumulator on took joy from seeing others see and realise financial losses. So I take some solace that 80-90% of you and your compadres lose money and that you receive your karma eventually.

Because there is still value here and a lot of it. I would've liked to have seen debt come down quicker but this ignores the company expects to breakeven by YE and the cash from the asset sale. So even with oil uncertainty net debt is likely to be anywhere between £2.3bn - £2.6bn we are talking about a half which include a historic fall in oil prices. The focus now is on production rather than exploration which is prudent for now. The share price is not attached to the fundamentals, chiefly the suggestion is that if the company sold all of its producing assets, non producing assets and the rest of its licences there would only be £50 million left to distribute amongst shareholders. Well Noble Inc had revenues approx 2.2 times Tullow and sold for £13 billion. The company is not a going concern, this trading update is infinitely better than what was served to us by Mcdade. One thing I am certain of now, Crispin Odey should have closed his position at 7p he got too greedy even in this downturn his fund is performing poorly, just remember that 8% need to buy back in at somepoint.

With most oil majors holding back on investment decisions and BP being the first to declare an intention to shift more to natural gas, who exactly is going to pay the going rate then? CNOOC are not interested otherwise they would have taken up their pre-emption rights. The facts are that the oil is situated in a country where FID seems forever delayed, mostly down to the poor infrastructure in the country that can only be resolved by the Ugandan government who seem more bothered about tax disputes. Throw in the obvious financial problems caused by the Pandemic and you have what to most people looks like a white elephant, we haven't got 5 years to hope things will change.

Put it this way Uganda is not going to accelerate the building of the oil pipeline required, they have proven they struggle to work alongside big business and can't afford to invest in the local infrastructure required. Money will be better spent in Guyana/Suriname IMO.

Long time lurker.

Frustrating to see that in the last week Brent is up $4 and Tullow is currently less than it was this time last week. I have no further insight than there's no real logic, the market seems to be hesitant of a second wave when we are still in the first. At least in 2008 the fallout and aftermath made sense. Nice to see global oil consumption is increasing daily though, reality for the share price here has to kick in some day.

Make sure you vote for the Uganda sale, that cash is needed for these topsy turvy times as you cant pay your debts with oil that you can't get out of the ground.