Member Info for Scrodingerscat

So basically one of you're golden geese is a takeover play the other is a competitor, that's hardly the wisest moves from a strict risk perspective. Wonder what chart you concocted for that one.

Though case and point from my comment about external factors, so for Nvidia most of that price move is not organic. Interestingly crypto mining has helped a lot of growth in that particular sector recently. Genuinely good luck with your micro chip play though.

There are more than a few categories of fools in investing, 2 kinds of them are firstly the ones who think that they can safely predict the future using chart analysis on it's own and those who ignore charts entirely.

You painted yourself as some sort of sage recently as you seem to be unaware that the vast majority of investors spend at least some of their time looking at charts, why because it tells us the past and you can extrapolate a trend from it. But you seem blissfully ignorant that this is only part of the puzzle, trends do not account for most future events or market wide or industry specific events. Anybody who has ever had to put a cash flow forecast together for an organisation with all the possible variables available at your disposal will tell you it's not an exact science. But you seem to suggest that you know where the SP is heading based on the past and no grasp of the fundamentals of the organisation you are betting against, ignoring the psychology of the market, the external price influences and possible future notifiable events.

You infer everyone invested here is a gambler well unfortunately you are a gambler with a chart and a trend line. Some helpful advice would be to go through the interims again, make sure you understand the balance sheet because apart from headline numbers you don't appear to have it nailed on what you are betting against.

What happened to your resistance line then that broke this week (16.11 - 16.25)? Why don't you share your revised analysis as unfortunately your expert analysis from just a few days ago if anybody was to have taken it would be 20% down, an expert chartist with a 20% trend reversal in the space of less than 48 hours. I can see investor's queuing down the street for your future analyses.

I think that is the current sentiment exactly.

H1 net profit and the market will start to take notice. H1 loss and this goes down. Somewhere in the middle ie EBITDA of approximately £3M - £4M but a paper loss or a loss as a result of a one off cost (eg. R&D, Tech Upgrade, previous Acquisition, Covid costs etc.) Then this trends in the 5.5p - 7.5p range for another 6 months. I reckon it will be the latter and until the group becomes profitable, the cycle will only be broken by a big new order say £25 million plus or loads of new orders in a short space of time. I'd be happy with any rise but I'm not expecting a breakout.

Anyone have an idea when we can expect H1 results? They normally are out by now and although earlier in the year lockdown and the increased size of the group was justification for the delay. Obviously lockdown is not a reason at the minute.

A shorter advising shorters not to go short haha. Let them be, it's only the Algorithms of the hedge funds who have borrowed that can influence the price. Your time would be better spent trying to get the hedge funds to close their positions.

The demand destruction in the price of oil just seems inevitable. Rising Covid cases in so many countries now will have to be addressed sooner or later by the individual respective governments.

Though if the EIA confirms the draw down numbers in or around the API numbers later today, with a quarter of the US gulf of Mexico production currently offline (I would anticipate a further draw down next week) at the minute and hopefully a positive OPEC meeting (clamp down on Nigeria, Iraq and UAE) then oil could be bullish for at least another week or two. If we can get into October with Brent still comfortably in the 40's, I'm hopeful that OPEC+ will this time react properly to any winter lockdowns in the major economies and cut output if it needs to.

Further lockdowns are certainly a possibility, there are countermeasures to be taken though (for oil anyway) if OPEC+ had held together and made cuts back in March instead of Saudi Arabia ramping production up then oil wouldn't have collapsed like it did. Yes it would probably be in the 40's still but the decline could have been better managed.

However that being said this has knocked shale for six which is a longer term benefit for oil in general, chiefly in financial terms for the customer and environmentally for local stakeholders. Lesson hard learned for the US oil industry, the US model of home drawn oil whatever the cost has underlined that shale has no long term future and is purely political with no economic merit. It is just a zombie industry now, and due to the vast amounts of debt created by a capital intensive process has cost far more now than it can ever hope to recover.

To say a Hurricane has no effect is just incorrect, there's a section on the EIA website for Hurricanes and published paper's on the impacts they have on oil and gas production.

The market hasn't reacted much and it may not do (nobody said it would), but considering the last 2 Hurricanes resulted in large inventory draws and larger inventories is currently one of the chief reason why oil is where it is. Then no matter how negligible you think it is, or how dismissive you are of it, it will be a factor in next weeks API & EIA inventory reports.

Well looks like your statement from yesterday is half wrong already, Brent has moved. Nobody mentioned OXY? So in addition to Chevron and Murphy, BP & Equinor have also confirmed platforms have been evacuated.

For those following the price of oil.

Reuters reporting gulf platforms for Chevron Corp and Murphy Oil Corp from Saturday began evacuating. Tropical storm Sally likely to make landfall in Louisiana on Monday and revised to a Category 2 Hurricane.

I don't agree that we are all just out to make money, the question is at what cost? There's an element of ethics, for instance would you invest in Boohoo knowing what is now public knowledge? I wouldn't, some would though, I have exited positions on principle and at a loss in the past, so we all draw our own lines in the sand. Also look at the lack of empathy required wishing prices to drop. Don't get me wrong shorting has it's benefits some would argue providing lower entry points, but only real shorting, spreadbets do not influence the price. Besides price drops and significant amounts as we have witnessed here are large and that is somebody's money somewhere. On the flipside if I'd have done the polar opposite as Odey Asset Management's investments over the last few years and bought stock in everything they were shorting I would be significantly richer.

Let's be honest here NI you have been invested here 5 minutes, we have seen and heard all this over optimism before.

Isn't it funny reading posts from the short term price action gamblers, they all seem to be blessed with foresight. The professional analyst's were far from worried yesterday, and although there have been sales the last couple of day's, buys have been larger both by quantity and value. This share will track oil prices until CMD or an RNS on disposals. Whichever is sooner. I'm not after a big bounce, although it would be nice. We are in for a shift from Exploration, ie. rolls of the dice to a focus on getting the most out of what we have. Not worried short or medium term and it looks like our larger II holders feel the same. Rahul's mantra is Production + Capital Discipline, when he went through his CV yesterday anybody can tell he is light years ahead of Mcdade in terms of experience, qualifications and knowledge of emerging markets.

RBL is the deciding factor and I can see people speculating in both directions. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, like any negotiation as long as both parties are pragmatic a compromise will be made to suite both parties.

By all means it's a discussion and nobody should be trying to sway others. Results were better than expected for me, as I expected larger impairments. Oil is a dog for everybody holding at the minute, anyone with eyes can see there's money to be made shorting any oil stocks at the minute, but as with any price action moves you are always at risk of a reversal.

Finally on betting, I don't spreadbet it's a fools game, the new EU rules on betting have somewhat reduced losses across these betting sites but I've never met a spreadbetter that managed to stay in the game for long let alone decades. But have actually worked with a colleague in the past who got into financial difficulty as a result of betting up or down and he had chartered status. Spreadbets encourage the notion of get rich quick, that's the difference in actually buying and holding, you can take as much risk as you want but most of us just target 5 - 10% growth per year and that has worked for me over the last 19 years. Good luck on your points movement though.

It's an option but it is certainly not a base option, but my thoughts were exactly the same. I'm longer in the tooth invested here from the 100K+ production days. Confused why anyone would see debt for equity as anything other than a last resort. No offence but if I thought there would be any kind of dilution outside of director awards, I wouldn't touch that equity with a barge pole.

The burning question is will they have a bouncy castle, cake and ice-cream on CMD?

No arrogance here whatsoever, you directed your earlier post suggesting what I should do with my investment here. I set the record straight, not surprising I have a portfolio as most investors do and everyone decides where and how much risk they are prepared to take on any given investment. You as a spreadbetter do not take the same approach because you need quick movements up or down because it costs you to maintain a position. I'm aware that day traders and some people take the approach of putting their eggs all in one basket but eventually no matter how good you think you are at investing you eventually pick a dud.

I still feel as I did last week that nothing has materially changed and if you think TLW can survive then it will eventually payback. Equally if you think it will collapse feel free to take a bet against it or get leverage for a short position.

Not to blow a hole in your post but that $3 billion figure was confirmed at the last trading update.

Don't you worry about me chief, it's dropped a little this morning so now TLW's worth 6% of my portfolio. I can afford to lose it all here as I've made some big gains this year from Datadog, Indivior and Kaz Minerals.

How's your spreadbet doing then?

For what it's worth Slift has highlighted the RBL re-determination many times and if you bother to scroll through the board the senior notes, values and dates are on this board. This is not new information but it looks like they have decided to spell out the options. IMO the sale of Kenya for say $400 - $500 million solves our problems, refinancing is a possibility and as a worst case scenario insolvency.

This is not new information to those of us who have poured over Tullows debt. Shorts will not close until this has been sorted, they will think of only the fact that insolvency is one of the possibilities. So choices are sit and wait for the determination announcements or sell up now.

In other words a mixed bag of views. Could go up or down, certainly reasons out there to be positive or negative, everyone needs to justify to themselves holding or taking a long/short position. I personally don't see this board as overly optimistic and it's easy to sound all knowing with the benefit of hindsight.

The interims and how to interpret them are for the individual investor to decide, if you take confidence from the results then what difference does the short term movement's of the market really make?

Even as an accountant, I don't do much
differently to most. I will have a run through first thing to see if anything panics me and have a forensic look later on in the week. Reacting to the irrationality of the market is only useful for entry points.

Oils had a hiccup. Not surprising, but based on really very little, Saudi prices dropped a bit, refinery runs and yet to be confirmed concerns about overall demand. I don't think I'm being overly optimistic by thinking oil will recover, doesn't have to be today or tomorrow or even next month, just that I'm optimistic that oil will hit at least $50 in 2021. As for Tullow do I think the company can make money at some point with lower oil prices, yes if it completes it's current strategy. Then longer term in 3 to 5 years the company needs to pick it's next strategy of steadily diversifying away from oil, to either a natural gas focus and or involvement in energy project's in countries it has a footprint in. Ghana will or should be at some point starting to make plans beyond oil and there's no reason Tullow could not get involved.

PMO are diluting that was the peach of their update. There debt has gone in the wrong direction because they have accumulated assets (debt) at the worst possible time.

TLW's debt pile with the sale of Uganda when confirmed will mean the company has less net debt compared to the end of 2019. You are clearly short here, another shorter Odey has gone on the record and said TLW needs to do an equity raise, the board has said it can get debt to more manageable levels by disposing of assets. The board are not infallible and the lack of communication with shareholders this year has been poor but I still trust them over a hedge fund that benefitted from and had a hand in influencing the collapse of sterling. Led by an individual that often leaks questionable gutter stories about companies he is shorting and if to highlight his character credentials further was recently charged with indecent assault and blamed the banks for losing investors significant amounts of money invested in his fund.

We already know it's a loss they said as much during the trading update weeks ago.

I don't like to see this go down but if it does so be it. The statement is a chance for the board to reassure holders that the plan highlighted earlier in the year is on track and they are resolving the issues that started the nightmare back in 2019. Brent dropped to $16 during the period so anyone expecting a profit needs to rethink their choices as the stock market is clearly not for them.

The key has always been the forward look, I expect Capex has been primarily focused in H1, they already said they expect to breakeven for the year, even better if they can deliver a slither of FCF as it is unlikely that the new well has been included in estimates considering the cautious approach since January. If progress is being made then the current £282 million market cap looks frankly ridiculous.

Around 4 - 5 million barrels are estimated to be a result of the hurricaine. This hasn't exactly been a great day, where as all the signs pointed towards something positive.

I think it's a combination of a lot of things. Everybody and their dog are hedging their barrels at the minute, consumption is down 10% globally and we are all happily eating away into our large inventories. Though oil just isn't viable at these levels for the long term, those inventories won't last for ever and OPEC+ on it's own even at max output can't fuel the worlds crude demand, so something has to give at somepoint. Nobody can afford to turn the taps on right as turning on the taps in most cases costs billions of dollars. The market doesn't realise it yet but if the oil price is stuck here for too long there is no incentive to drill, produce or explore. Saudia Arabia has always vastly exaggerated it's capabilities saying it can get to full capacity within 30 days when the reality is a lower capacity figure that can be achieved in 90 days.

Who knows maybe a Mad Max style future beckons. For the US the big thing to watch will be if there continues to be draws, the impact on inventories for when the supposed 37 million barrels head to China and the rig count.