Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Surprised, you bought @5.5p so only this year then? I can see why you still are positive as you've been here only 5 minutes. Give it 12 months let's see if you remain that way, as it will more than likely still be in this range or lower. TPG has a long track record and Corac previously of letting holders down, it's why all the II's moved on. Currently there is nothing known that can dig the company out of this hole, they need to secure more contracts and cut costs, PC needs to be bringing in external management consultants to look at efficiencies because at the minute it looks like the cost of sales increase mirrors revenue increases and for a loss making business that is unsustainable.

If the best we can hope for is a takeover then I'm disappointed. I have resisted criticism of our current leadership but I hope all will join me in voting against any additional reward or remuneration for our CEO if this is an agenda item at our next AGM.

a4007035 maybe I'm being impatient, but after 3 years I think I have some right to raise questions. Even when you add back in the mentioned £1.1M factored cost of Covid,TPG was still going backwards with a lower operating profit. It no longer feels like it is ever going to post a profit, last year the results focused on EBITDA as a true measure of performance, I disagreed then as an accountant I'm a bottom lines guy but do like to see hidden potential asset value that is not always jumping out of the balance sheet. Apart from high level entry specialist contracts which on the whole are generally small who would want to take this over Bab****, Thales, BAE? Can't see it, they'd be better of headhunting some of our staff than paying £40M. This has all of the hallmarks of being one of those companies that ends up investing to standstill, Reminding me a bit of IQE but none of the market hype.

PaulQ, I applaud your optimism but 2018 & 2019 were both much better years in terms of the fundamentals and execution of the growth strategy and the shareprice has not moved. Nearly all of that goodwill appears to have been undone today. Brokers and analyst targets have been missed by a country mile. Personally I'm going to stick around at least to see the year end results, but a lot of hype here over what is a relatively small amount of revenue growth at significant cost. With more shares in issue, a reduction in book value compared to last year and a seismic shift away from our Engineering roots there are geniune causes for concern. The positives are the, cash position, revenues and order book.

Takeover talk I'm afraid is just pure hype. As any prospective buyer is likely to look first to cutting costs, I'm not sure why the board is so resistant to do this right now.

These are not good results. I'm going to have a more forensic look later but I'm struggling to see any positives. This is not the breakthrough year, for all the bluster focusing on growing EBITDA, not anymore this is massive step backwards. Feel sorry for the holders who have been in since the rights issue. My first reaction was my patience is at an end.

Noelshempsky, good luck with that. Think about your entire approach here. Most of the people who read this board are invested and as we are hovering around near enough the lows do you think most are sitting on a profit or a loss? Then you start harping on about 12p in pretty much every single post, not a great way to make friends. Plenty of people have given price predictions some right but most have been wrong, to be honest if you were banging on about 40p as much as you do 12p I would have eventually given you same sentiments. You clearly are not giving predictions in good faith and it's clear you want the price to reach that level, with your reasons being your own. I can only speak for myself here but will be glad of either you getting bored of posting the same drivel or just lose interest in TLW, my fingers are crossed for both scenarios.

Or you could change your tact, as opposing views and reasoned discussion is more than welcome when you have something informed to say. Maybe then people will listen.

NoelShempky what a delightful addition to the board you have been this week. Been following for long? Your honest opinion is just that and is about as worthless as it is priceless. I'm sure everyone would like to know what tonight's euromillion numbers are going to be as well, have you got those as well?

Slift, we will have to agree to disagree. Although there was no denying Canarywharfys took an opposing view to the consensus, IMO the valuation given to the assets, the ability to refinance and the ability to sell higher to a willing and able buyer was grossly out of whack with the then and current climate.

We both have posted in length about debt here and we are on the same page, our aforementioned friend just ignores time as a major factor.

I was originally pushing for a sale of Kenya but I have now put that on hold as I'm interested to see what is proposed on CMD. I agree 100% that we should only now be considering disposals if they are necessary and either are positive or accretive to the balance sheet, every asset always has a price IMO.

I have a feeling that we are going to be underwhelmed again. RNS releases prior to results painted a positive trading picture last H1 not a sniff of a positive trading comment this time around. The market seems to think the same, anyway roll on next week if it rises above 7p great and if it drops below 6p again I will have to think long and hard if I'm prepared to throw more money at an investment that has gone backwards since my entry point 3 years ago. GLA.

Slift, I'm not sure why you or anyone needs to engage here. The interims clearly outlined a forecasted timeline of when TLW would run out of liquidity minus the asset sale, proving Canarywharfy without a shadow of a doubt was wrong back then. It's not surprising to me that he/she is wrong on many other things subsequently after resurfacing.

None of the suggestions made are feasible outside of cloud cuckoo land as demonstrated time and time again, because there is no basic understanding of how debt, cash flow, P&L, the balance sheet or any aspect of how TLW's financials or finance works. Canarywharfy genuinely believes that we can develop these assets seeing the same figures you and I, or everyone else on here will have looked at or that we have enough time and it will be easy to get a better offer, bearing in mind the deal was agreed with total (Uganda knows the CEO personally) nearly 6 months ago and it has still not been approved by Uganda.

My suggestion to anyone that reads Canarywharfys comments and is influenced by them, firstly the clown shoes 100% fit and more importantly DYOR.

Laidback, the current deadline without an extension is the 23/10. I suggest you read the RNS' of the attempted sale last time round and the length of time it took to reach it's unsatisfactory conclusion before sniping at those with a genuine concern, see if you can see what is starting to look like deja vu.

Don't get me wrong we have our fair share of corruption here, the health service for instance has a long list of contracts being challenged as they were dished out without going through a tender process during this pandemic, but Uganda is on a whole other level. As a bench mark I have seen mining asset sales in Australia and Canada completed by the respective jurisdictions in as little as 6 weeks. We are currently 4 months in but in reality 18 months as the Ugandan government had to look into pretty much the same transaction as last time round on the exact same assets.

I have said it before but will repeat it again we will be so much better off being shot of Uganda.

The government there is corrupt to the core and just incompetent, the ridiculous thing is if this deal falls through it's all down to Uganda. Result we cant afford to develop the assets, nobody will want to buy them off us and with us likely being in Administration by that point they will get even less after 2 failed sale attempts and the current climate. Uganda has a binary choice approve the sale or still have no oil revenue in 5 years time as the company sitting on the assets is insolvent. I think if the sale is not approved Total's patience will have run out and they would look to exit entirely by selling their own stake. How many times has the Total CEO had to have personal meetings with the prime minister to get things moving. Can you imagine Premier Oil having to serenade Boris Johnson to pick up BP's assets? This is not how I expect it to pan out but since it took such a long time to decide the value of the assets last year why is it taking so long now, surely Uganda would have taken some professional Actuary advice about how a deal collapse here would pan out?

Just to highlight that I was bullish earlier in the year when US stockpiles were drawing down at 10 million, 9 million and 8 million barrels a week. But if you take out Delta and the EIA confirms the figures tomorrow it looks like stockpiles are drawing at best around 2 - 3 million barrels a week. So with 57 million barrels to shed, that's 29 weeks to return to normal stockpile levels.

The UAE suggesting reversals of OPEC+ cuts in January and shale refusing to collapse as we hoped it would. My fingers are crossed entirely on a big demand rise for heating oils, will people working from home have an impact? Like here most US homes are heated by gas, I think only around 1 in 20 UK households are not connected to the gas network, I'm not sure what the numbers are like stateside but even if it's higher than here I'm sceptical this will on it's own fuel much of a price rise.

I hate to agree with mole_man99, but these figures will include effectively half of the shut down impact of Delta so can't be relied upon as a yardstick for an accurate measure, although a draw is a good result we will need to still see a draw down in 2 weeks time plus a significantly higher utilisation rate. Slift I hope you turn out right about distillates though, but I'm going to wait for a week without an adverse production event before I share your optimism.

Adastra, that ignores the last raise. 6.5p which most holders will have taken up. So they have seen a 7% return if they sold today in 3 and a half years and less than that if we take the 6 month average and sold before today.

PM44, plenty of AIM stocks pay dividends and are profitable but as this is the junior market there are also plenty of vehicles that are either too niche, just cynically used to pay off debt, new concepts (tech), fundamentally flawed, badly run or just a complete waste of time I agree. TPG is a good AIM stock and I do begrudge Cartmell's supposed £500K salary but he's done well here to achieve what he has so far. There looks to be a path to profit and if the board want to achieve a £100M+ market cap then it will need to entice bigger institutional investors which means demonstrating profit and paying a dividend amongst a plethora of other things.

Stokey12, I'm glad I'm not alone. Looks like we have a similar mindset, I have been here a while but I'm not prepared to pump money into fund growth for growth's sake. The debt facility is there as well but equally I don't want to see the group get up to it's eyeballs in debt to gain an acquisition. Boring I know but I would like to see some consolidation, looking at the job's board and steady influx of consultants, I can safely guess our payroll costs will be higher than ever when they announce the interim results, I will be keen to see our current costs as groups with lots of recent acquisitions always tend to be bloated for a time until the board actively starts to look at streamlining costs.

Nobody I am sure doubts the abilities of TPG to build on the contacts it has gained from acquisitions or the deep relationships it has built with just initially small wedge orders. The organic growth and repeat orders from over the last couple of years demonstrate that.

My concern is the lack of profitability, even the last results (I'm paraphrasing here) basically said we don't like the new accounting rules so ignore the bottom line. But it's difficult to ignore the bottom line when every year the group has a loss due to one exceptional item or another. If TPG can get to a point of making an actual profit of a few million then the cost of an acquisition becomes less of an issue because we are not just swapping cash (which from the last raise we don't have a lot left of now) for revenue. Also we can't entirely discount a rights issue to fuel more acquisitions when cash is exhausted.

Toothache, nice to see you reflecting on the recent positive trend.

Reasons to be positive this week but there's a long way to go and lots of luck is still needed, lest we all forget oil is currently experiencing it's own version of an existential crisis.

Slightly off topic but have been reading into Biden re-oil, and actually I think he could benefit the wider oil industry, he has said he won't ban fracking but it looks like he won't be approving drilling on federal land. Trump is partially to blame for the glut in the US due to the tasty tax breaks and the reduction of the red-tape making licences easier to obtain and watered down environmental obligations.