Member Info for Scrodingerscat

I sound very negative today and I shouldn't as any rise is a positive. In my defence I bought my first tranche in 2018 so despite averaging down I'm overall still down 35%. I think we all just need to take each step as it comes a long and hope for a positive outcome for each milestone.

Do I believe TLW can reach £2 again, yes it's possible but there are so many difficult hurdles to overcome before then. RBL determinations, Net production (net to TLW) needs to be comfortably above 100K bpd, new wells will need drilling in Ten and Jubilee, debt needs reducing, FID in Kenya and or exit with at least £400M in cash, a strike in either Suriname, Guyana, Peru or Argentina and most importantly oil at $60.

It is down over 90% because of 2019 being a complete disaster, over hyped exploratory drills that resulted in dusters or a strike that took far too long to be eventually declared heavy oil, production misses (production was supposed to be 100K+ bpd net to TLW), gas offtake issues seriously affecting Ghana flow rates, bloated costs, a tax dispute with Uganda which dragged on and eventually cost the company £900M from the farm down (we all thought last time this was nailed on), floods in Kenya and that's not even mentioning 2020 (pandemic + oil trade war). Although in 2020 I can't really fault the steps taken by Dorothy or Rahul to steady the ship, McDade was completely ineffective at facing problems and clearly hid reality from shareholders. Although saying that, if I had a criticism to make, the lack of communication from the board to shareholders has been disappointing this year.

I haven't forgotten to mention because it's mentioned here every third post. It is also wrong to suggest that everything will be ok when it's approved (I already have made my thoughts quite clear that I believe it will be sanctioned). Even with the £500M we are still short to prove to lenders we have enough liquidity to cover the senior notes. The RBL is and still remains the watershed and there is no doubt that the Uganda sale strengthens our hand but does not guarantee refinancing.

Ah ok, although it does sound like you might be a bit fossil fuel heavy, just think there are other industry recovery plays to consider.

I would ignore most of the ramping and "10p imminent" fleas on here, the early RBL re-determination in January will be TLW's D-Day, Capital Markets day in November is just the pitch. Will lenders agree to refinancing after the new CEO's vision? Who knows, plenty of options some worse than others but you need to understand what the implications of failing an RBL determination will mean for TLW, everything else is just vanilla.

New to investing and you picked TLW oh dear. You have picked a risky start that's for sure. Is this your only holding? If so with such a small average it might be worth de-risking at some point.

Price predictions are like ********s everyone has one, so at least a target. You need to work out what your exit point is and not listen to others on here as there are many wolves amongst the sheep. I do not give price predictions and I'm wary of those that freely choose to do so. In most cases predictions tend to be wrong as nobody can accurately predict where this will end up. Good luck and try not to become naive, this share is not for the faint hearted.

Hurricane Delta should keep the oil price stable for the rest of the week.

I'm pretty sure Les Wood hinted at a voluntary reduction of the RBL during the interim presentation.

This has been priced to fail. Roughly 100 million shares on loan and most have enjoyed the ride down from the high 30's, don't think they will be sweating just yet but the amount of bankruptcy filings stateside and these mergers are signs of an industry wide shake up. Those left standing this time next year, with major's diversifying, western funds pulling money out of fossil fuels then even with demand destruction could see a much higher oil price, small to medium's or national oil will need to fill the gap left by majors exiting and companies that didn't survive this lull in prices.

The Uganda Revenue Authority and by extension Finance Ministry have always been a nightmare to deal with, this will centre around Capital Gains. I had read Total would be picking up the tab this time round but don't quote me, hopefully they are being pragmatic this time because if they pull the same trick as last year trying to squeeze revenue out of the French major then I can see Total pulling the plug on principle. As far as I'm aware the revenue wanted £120M last time.

We are talking about harnessing star fuel after all, I don't doubt the plausibility, just that we are further from making it commercial and safe than some seem to suggest. Anyways I'm signing off for the weekend, there's been some good discussions on the board today, beats the constant ramping and or occasional 10p imminent types. Even though I know some of our interests are not aligned, have a nice weekend.

Hydrogen is the new buzzword to investor's, anyone who studied chemistry knows all to well the proporties of hydrogen aka the most volatile of all the elements. If they can nail a hydrogen plane or train that has no risk of exploding I'd be surprised, everyone seems to have forgotten the Hindenburg.

Slift, I'm not denying a future of all electric transport but the posts here make it sound like it's going to be next year. I'm all for the Utopia but the reality of this being imminent does not match up to the present or lived experience.

I bought a new car at the beginning of the year and all electric was not an option for me because during normal times I have to put a fair mileage in to visit other sites and the hybrid options polluted more and consumed more miles per gallon than the economical choice that I eventually went with. I know people who have all electric cars and hybrids but every single one of them also have a petrol or diesel engined motor as well. Currently electric cars are purely a luxury item for those with a higher disposable income or those who don't really need to travel much who usually are environmentally motivated (which is fine).

I know it's not a small world to see fellow Chemical Engineering graduates invested in oil. Graduated from Manchester 20 years ago and for my sins work in corporate finance.

When you understand what a versatile mixture of compounds it is, it's hard to shake the psychological influence of it . The way I see it is Coal for instance has one purpose, you burn it and it releases energy in the form of heat and gases yet it is still bought, sold and used today in 2020. Oil can do the same but can also be changed into so many different things. Peak oil may or may not have passed but even 50 years from now if coal is anything to go by, oil will be bought and sold.

I don't doubt that there are changes a foot in the advanced economies but what of India and China, the time frames we are talking about China will have overtaken the US in nominal GDP and a $25,000 Tesla might as well be $3M, so we still have 3 billion people, driving cheap petrol cars, motorbikes etc. I have been to India recently and to think they can just adopt Tesla's is beyond ludicrous. Working from home in both of those countries is also is not possible, most are lucky if they have a few square feet of living space let alone broadband.

Just get's my gears that the suggestion that we are just going to wake up one day and no longer need oil when it directly or indirectly touches everything, obviously people are restricted right now so demand is down but when we resume some semblance of normality demand will pick up, right now it's 10% down compared to the same time last year.

I'm looking round my office and apart from my plant which I grew myself there is nothing in the room that was not influenced by oil, whether it contains something derived from oil, or manufactured by something fuelled by or containing components made of and indeed just transported by.

Electric cars are great but until the technology improves, the infrastructure to accommodate mass adoption is in place and batteries charge much much quicker and last much longer then it's still inferior to a petrol or Diesel engine.

Not really sure what your angle is here. Correct me if I'm wrong but I recollect you are not invested? You talk a lot about supply and demand but broadly ignore that plenty of manufactured items ranging from plastics to tyres still require crude oil to be produced, even electric cars have many components made from oil, even top end new tech eg. playstations, mobile phones, rocket fuels the list is nearly endless. There is currently no compound that can be synthesized that is as abundant, cost effective or versatile as oil, so until that day you are just releasing unfounded prophesies of doom. Coal has been defunct for 75 years as an energy source and yet companies still mine and sell it, why? Cost and abundance no other reason. Anyway inventories were near to all time highs and yet the world has managed to shed 300 million barrels of oil since lockdown ended, nobody doubts that oil markets need to rebalance and that the future will be about low cost production with an eye on Carbon footprints. We are where we are because of the combined effects of an oil trade war and a pandemic. Let's see what global oil demand looks like by the end of 2021 to see who is actually talking b******s.

Just low volume antics, hardly any trades so doesn't appear anyone is panic selling. As long as oil can hang above $40. Remember $40 was the base case for liquidity, $30 the low case and oil averaged above $43 in Q3. So that means even if oil manages the rest of Q4 with an average of $37 we are still on the base case for liquidity.

Make or break RBL determination is still scheduled for January 2021, current pending RBL is a formality IMO based on the interims already detailing why TLW expects to pass during that lengthy going concern statement. Plenty of time for you to sell between now and January or hold, your choice of course.

Brent is up from the closing auction point for TLW yesterday afternoon. Looking at level 2 and the trades it looks like mostly the work of Algorithms (make of that what you will).

Libya re-commenced production a couple of weeks ago but only to around 650K bpd, and it won't be a problem for most markets until December/January because it takes time to charter tankers, load them and ultimately deliver to market. Libya is part of OPEC so there will ultimately be some agreed curb put on their production sooner rather than later.

Popular as ever I see. Funny enough I prepare accounts for a living so I don't need your "investment experience" in reading financial statements.

Reserves being the key of any oilers ultimate worth, point to an oiler that hasn't had to write down recently. Also you broadly ignore that with plenty of blocks yet to be drilled and some elbow grease on some of it's 2C's there is value here. Your comments relate chiefly to write downs
which brings us to a universe where you are universally despised and true to form spout figures that any 10 year old could spout from a 10 second google, keep blessing us with your incite though.

"Pure facts" post actually contains nothing resembling a fact.