Member Info for Scrodingerscat

I have been invested here for 12 months, the frustrating thing here is the price should move up or down with oil and gas prices as it's a general gauge of revenue, it doesn't because this has been held pretty much in place for weeks, the spread was ridiculous at one point. I don't mind if it goes up or down now either way, would prefer it to rise obviously. But clearly someone is holding the bid where it is and only the ask moves during most sessions. If I knew it would lead anywhere I would make a complaint to the FCA, but it all boils down to how you raise capital if you sell to sticky hands great but clearly that has not happened. It doesn't fill you with confidence that an SP can be manipulated so easily, I've seen it before with small caps doesn't make it any easier to stomach.

Every other oil and gas producer green. Block red. Lessons learnt about how you do a raise properly... of course not. CEO on thin ice.

It's the Algorithms turn to influence prices at the minute, probably best not to sweat over the low volume days they always go down. This is a sit and wait, hold if you can. I understand why people put stop losses on but on the flipside if everyone did it because everyone would set it at different levels it offers steps for Algorithms to take those footholds needed to walk it down on low levels. Without news the only shifts will be price of oil related or if the price drops low enough for value hunters to jump in (I reckon this will be around 38-39p). Day traders only get involved when high volumes come into play.

Relax though, at current oil levels and if it holds above $55 I'm confident of decent H1 report later in the year, balance sheet progress will have the most impact on a potential re-rate, Suriname is the wildcard and more than likely to drop than rise on Suriname news but will just be a blip, the balance sheet fundamentals hopefully will have improved and the drills this year if go well will see production forecasts for 2022 revised up significantly north of the current 60k bopd. Day to day this is frustrating but compare this to March last year and it's a completely different ball game. Holders will be rewarded in the future here. Keep the faith GLA.

Round of applause for this comment. You know full well that not everyone can take up their rights for a plethora of reasons. From an institutional point of view I have seen funds not take up rights issues for risk reasons and capital discipline tolerances. Jog on, look forward to the next time you come back with something equally as pointless.

Why don't you spend your time calculating how much your shares in Harbour Energy will be worth when collectively your fellow PMO holders shares all in only represent 5% of the total equity of the future entity.

What a waste of time reading that or even posting it. It's a load of hypothetical nonsense and cobblers, even if you are trying to guess a raise you have no variables A. The amount needed to be raised and B. The share price at the time C. the dozens of variable options available to plc's when diluting.

Been sweating a while with the SP but good to see that the market is beginning to see sense, beneath £1.40 a share is ridiculous for what is the steady Eddie of UK bankings big 4. HSBC shifting focus to Asia is something that is bound to create gaps, I'm already thinking of moving my business banking from them.

Happyinvestor100 aka the broken record. Well my guess is that you are long on BP and PMO and short on TLW as a hedge, pure speculation of course. Your speculation is just that, and I'm all for balance but it's something that is currently in the unlikely pile ie. plausible but goes against all the noises made thus far by RD. So let's cut the act anybody with eyes can see you are a Canis Lupis lazily masquerading as a sheep.

Sauerkraut. Funny, though there are lot of people setting themselves up for a big fall, crypto and bitcoin in the main, robinhood, trading 212 etc helped create it. Full disclosure Tullow is a risky stock, oil is very risky compared with other commodities generally and any basis of a portfolio needs to be started with growth and Tech matched with defensive stocks. Recovery plays and commodities are brought in much later. (TLW now represents 6% of my entire portfolio). Don't learn by rolling the dice.

My God is there really that many people on here who don't know what a block listing is. No wonder the institutions call PI's "stupid money". What is of concern is clearly people are new to the stock market and they pick a volatile commodity. If you can't work out a simple RNS you should invest your money in a fund.

Yes copper price is really storming along, shame that of the 2 copper assets Trident now has that only one of them is currently at a production stage. It's gone very quiet recently could really do with a royalties acquisition announcement to give the SP a shot in the arm. The pace of last year has not quite been replicated in 2021. Though remain confident in management, have minimum payments from Mimbula and it's more important to get the right deal rather than just any deal. t
Though I'm hopeful that Nickel or Lithium are brought into the portfolio soon. GLA.

Although I do chart analysis myself and only a fool would entirely ignore the history of a share price and not try and extrapolate where a SP is heading and a good entry/exit point. I do however think the art of day trading is overly reliant on it. I've been in this game for over 20 years and have done my fair share of day trading, but I avoid it entirely these days. My experience always was one of getting caught out nearly as much as making a quick buck and if you get caught out you either sell out at a loss or end up usually stuck holding stock you don't really believe in.

Each to their own but if you are only interested in what happens in a day or a week then it's usually all your eggs in one basket day after day and fundamentals are meaningless. I couldn't take the stress of effectively betting on a particular price movement every day, watching price movements while trying to do your day job, nah not for me not these days anyways.

The RBL is massive, as the current SP is where it is because the market deduced that TLW can't meet it's 2022 commitments without diluting. Well that is now off the table and anything above $50 oil is ahead of the CMD plan. They have basically and really dumbed down said today and recently that as it stands the company can pay it's commitments falling due in 18 months and refinancing is to maximise cash flows so they can speed up a conservative drilling plan. The only current negative is the significant fall in production. The impairment hit is even out of whack now with current oil prices.

Frustrating being a holder for a couple of years and it drops more in a session on a wildcard exploration drill than it can struggle to pull itself up with what in no uncertain terms is a game changer to the current plight. Was the future ever pinned on Jethro, Joe or Carapa of course not, but compare the swings on those days. The SP action today is a complete let off for those who have bet against this company aggressively over the last 2 years and although by averaging down I can only grumble about how I could have easily folded taken a 75% loss at one point to be sitting relatively more comfortable now on a 47% gain. What is clear is every year longer you stay in this game the more criminal it appears to be.

The way to see value is compare our recent progress to that of Premier Oil, the SP has not been able to break away. Yes they will become a bigger player than TLW when they merge with Chrysaor, but that stock only represents 5% of the future listing of Harbour Energy (which with albeit no debt currently but be interesting to see what 5% of the debt equates to of the new entity), equivalent to 10,000 bopd of a 200,000 bopd company. Fair value for TLW is considerably north of here, if the drill programme goes to plan TLW could be an 80,000 - 100,000 bopd producer in as little as 18 months.

Jefferies are the ones to watch that follow TLW closely as during conference calls have focused almost entirely on the RBL and have been the most bearish, even piping up with a dig in the FT recently.

Ignore that I was looking at Berenburg.

Peel Hunt have had held a hold view since 10th February, so not sure what you mean?

I expect some analyst activity in the next few weeks though with 2020 results on the horizon most will probably wait till they are released, but 35p 18 month target is old hat now. Oil will probably drop back when the Saudis announce reversal of cuts but I can't see a return to mid 30's now even if the Suriname well turns out to be a duster. Like I said weeks ago just sit back and hold now, multiple drills planned across the year. This is now one of the best recovery plays about.

There's no doubt this is being held here and it's one of the most frustrating things about small caps. If the sentiment was downward then the buy would have dropped beneath 3p. Manipulation really at the end of the day and all of PH's making, can add it to the list of his bad decisions. You will get your chance @3p the only way this share price is moving is if there's a huge influx of buyers or a sell off, expect this to remain static for the next 2 weeks at least, what will the FCA do about it... Diddly squat. The ones who've been cheated are the ones who have sold under 3p. Sit tight and see if this will be allowed to be traded fairly soon GLA.

The difference being they don't buy, they borrow and they risk a holder sell off in a rising market. Shorting is not the polar opposite of buying in the strictest sense as borrowing during periods of high volume that is not a sell off is a risky business, whereas day traders are drawn to high volume traded stocks with big swings.

This has been a jam tomorrow stock for years and years, the market clearly doesn't believe in the potential and that is because management has failed to deliver for a considerable amount of time as Corac and now as TP. The worst being having a placing and not having the acquisitions already lined up. I haven't sold up yet, I guess I'm just waiting to see what they do with Maritime but really don't want to be holding when results are released. Anyways best of luck to everyone.