Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Sell orders mostly small amounts, looks engineered to me, the positive was that buys kicked in to push it back up or could be shorts engineering a drop to buy back in who knows. Back in the old days these drops would take weeks to recover from or months.

With OPEC decision this week I'm fairly confident that those who want a lower share price have much more resistance than they used to. Feel for those with stop losses but I've always said never put a stop loss on a volatile stock. The Archegos contagion does impact on Goldman and over the coming months it will aim to deleverage some of its hedge fund clientele, we already know that some of the stock Goldman has here is loaned out for shorters.

Interesting times, though ignore Happy he's a one trick pony and if TLW refinances successfully he is toast and we can forget about his predictable speculation. Remember he's the guy that says dilution is a good thing while simultaneously putting a short bet on that outcome.

Feel for the LTH's here $10M is a big chunk of revenue for a $50M - $60M revenue company. I was going to buy back in the new tax year, think I will wait till the back end of this year before I decide. Though fingers crossed for you guys that they secure some big contracts this year and that 2022 numbers are decent.

Oleo, I never said it was or wasn't, as with all things price of oil related, I let the market decide. Let's just remember why the friction here "The oil tankers do not use the Suez because they are too big." - still incorrect no matter how you swing it.

Also for the record oil production is not expected to return to 100 million bpd until towards the end of 2021, according to the EIA.

Oleo, a quick Google factsearch just proved you are full of ****, according to Reuters:

"Of the 39.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil imported by seaborne methods in 2020, 1.74 million bpd went through the Suez Canal, according to tanker tracking firm Kpler."

As for refined: "Just under 9% or 1.54 million bpd of global refined product imports flowed through the Suez Canal last year, according to Kpler."

There are also plenty of photographs of tankers on the canal itself, unfortunately I can't share these. Also the Suez is much wider than the Panama canal, tankers and container ships are often built to "Suezmax" and "Neopanamax" scales to travel through the canals.

DYOR try it it's easy, then you don't have to look as thick as wet cement.

What a load of short term tosh this guy dribbles. Just the facts, Q1 spot price on course to average $61, $11 above the base case, so that's 25% of the year. Q2 drill to commence shortly and refinance announcement due before end of H1. All the naysayers have is that refinance will go tits up or oil will drop and it probably will but equally it will rise just as quickly, the world has not done enough drilling over the last year to supply a world out of lockdown. Just about every investment bank and analyst are predicting an oil price rise in the medium term, it's not a matter of if... it's when, and good luck to the cowboys that try and ride up on the bottoms who conveniently sell at the top. 12 months from now you can only dream of getting a 50p buy in here.

I was too late, tried to bid for £3000 at 5 past 9. A bit annoying that they didn't give a headsup at market close yesterday. Although there does seem to be a lot of ever growing dilution, and if this is the norm going forward and only some holders are able to get shares and others miss out, I think people will start to get more annoyed with effectively ever reducing stakes. What about borrowing, or finance of acquisitions?

All things a side this looks like a good deal with a long life, although some concerns over the legal action being taken against Orion.

You read the fundamentals and yet based a decision on them. Big news is those fundamentals are pre-listing, we don't have the financials for 2020 yet all we know is revenues. Wow proof sometimes that DYOR is often a wasted venture for some.

Roxbury, that was actually a good question. Wonder who asked the question about the tax dispute and Comoros. Any owners?

The highlight was when Les laughed at Happy's question.

He laughed at you, he has the figures in front of him and you think your analysis is the dogs *******s from the piece meal info you pulled together. Proof that your arrogance holds no bounds.

Bailiff at least you've created a loss under bed&breakfasting... every cloud.

Now I think you can see why the narratives was focused on production and not on wildcard exploration. I have been here more than once on duster day and normally it's a bloodbath.

Happy is really been trying to turn the screw this morning, sad.

Wonder if the drop most of this week was amplified by a leak in the information though.

Mrskipper, with a 34% chance of success and the need to address production first and foremost let's treat Suriname as it is shall we, the drills in Ghana are more important for securing TLW's future, Suriname represents a big drop if it turns out to be a duster. Banking on or hoping for a strike as TLW investors have done in the past has led to too many tears. I've seen plenty of bloodbaths here over the years and Suriname is a wildcard drill, whether it's a strike or not doesn't address TLW's declining production.

I've been tracking our drillship on it's route down Africa, no update since the 2nd of March (sad yes, also don't worry I'm sure she's not lost at sea, shipping trackers are way behind flight trackers in terms of real time data). But it got me thinking today about which well will be drilled first, and whether anybody has any thoughts on the current declines. My guess (based on the quote from the webcast below) would probably be to address the water injection first. Any thoughts?

“We expect the two new production wells in Jubilee to add about 8,000 barrels per day (bopd) in the first year, while the water injector will add 8,000 bopd. Similarly, the gas injection at TEN will add about 6,000 bopd to [the production from] the two wells in Jubliee.”

What peers have you compared TLW to then out of interest? In terms of quality of assets ie. Comparable exploration acreage and low extraction cost proven reserves? If you say PMO then you haven't got a clue.

I genuinely feel sorry for him, but claiming you are more knowledgable than most on here is a sure fire way for those words to catch up on you. Though most of the time it just seems we are all just playing darts blindfolded trying to pick winners.

Momentum is here because the market believes that TLW has turned a corner and there are plenty of PI's and II's that will have held shares in the past here because after all it was a constituent of the FTSE 100 at one point. Until volume drops off this still has legs, and arguably for those quick buckers there is a short position to open but we are not there yet.

Happy, $200M net debt reduction is only a bear case based on complete failure to refinance by September, that is your view and clearly not the view of the rest of the market. As has already been highlighted to you production declines being fairly aggressively addressed with numerous drills this year and next and the fact Tullow is only seeing the benefit of around 60K bopd production per day is chiefly why there is not going to be a significant uptick in OCF until the end of 2020.

As for not producing detailed debt analysis for the BB 1. I'm a firm believer in DYOR. 2. I don't have to as I'm not trying to influence people to sell. 3. I'm not arrogant enough to believe that my analysis is superior to that of rating agency's, brokers or analysts (with no skin in the game). 4. I'm happy with a reduction of $200M - $300M debt reduction by the end of 2021.

I don't normally post on weekends. Anyways here goes, you can read my posts back it's all here on record and I said 5 months ago that TLW will finish 2020 with $2.3B - $2.4B net debt. Not to mention this as proof of anything or that I'm some sort of sage but as like the numerous times I have explained the RBL to various posters on here, just that I'm not a fly by night with a loose grasp of the numbers.

So as it stands I also agree that by the end of 2021 that net debt will be $2.1B - $2.2B, now where me and Happy diverge is, how is that a bear case? Let's ignore a positive and just focus on Net Debt, which on it's own is just a meaningless headline number. For context his favourite share BP has $39B worth of debt, when you look at debt one of the most important things that lenders will put a lot of weight on is TLW's gearing. Which no surprises has been roundly ignored in his debt analysis, trust me he's not getting a job as an underwriter any time soon. So in the name of balance for the record this has been reduced to 3x.

Have a good weekend all and try not to be influenced by someone who missed out the debt ratio in his "thorough" analysis.

UINOIL, Covid aside as nobody can predict all black swan events I agree, though re heavy find was more to do with how that information was released because they were desperate for a positive news spin at that point. We act on the knowables, and people do miss some or not even bother to digest them. Happy is currently sticking to cold hard confirmation bias, I'm an accountant and I've poured over 2020's numbers, they are crap but hedges and Uganda saved TLW's bacon. Forward look based on realistic cost savings and the conservative approach of RD releasing figures that are looking to have a pattern of being at the bottom end of deliverables, have Dorothy or Rahul been off with production figures or forecasts yet? McDade brandied around 100k bopd as something TLW would imminently achieve, look how that padded out for him chasing all those wildcards and messing up a major drill in Ghana.

Even if Suriname is a duster (it will drop on duster news) its less important because McDade focused so much of the positive narrative on our exploration attempts Rahul has focused his narrative on Ghana.

Look as much as I enjoy the happy bashing, I don't like to see any PI's lose money (even him, delayed altruism if you will), hopefully he takes the loss on the chin because he didn't consider today's listing in his factoring, that's evidently clear.

What people take exception to is the claim that he's far more knowledgable than most on here. When clearly he isn't and hasn't considered all of the upcoming news items on the horizon. Now I'm not saying any of these will have a positive or negative effect but re- broker views Morgan Stanley and Barclays are just the first 2 views out of the paddock, generally you always have bullish and bearish broker views as per the general market but anyone can see the average of broker views will shift up. I'm keen to see what Jeffries view is as they have been exceptionally downbeat for their 12 month outlook. He's also ignored things like credit rating, Suriname, Kenya, FID in Uganda, EG & Gabon, Q2 drill, OPEC+. This is the problem when you transfix on one issue, yes it's a biggie, but anyone who thinks TLW is completely at the mercy of creditors has a blinkered view on how lending works, a FTSE 250 company with a significant amount of cash and currently generating good cashflow is not immediately on par with say Liberty Steel group as an example who can't pay bills. A balanced view is one where you research as much as you can and come to an outcome. Happy's view was to focus on one issue which is nothing more than confirmation bias.

Ps. I'm not 100% confident refinancing will be sorted but RD doesn't seem to be concerned, going concerns like risks have to be detailed and give possible outcomes but @$70 oil I don't think TLW's lenders can or will be too hard nosed about negotiations, also I think TLW'S balance sheet is atrocious right now, but I'm confident of a significant improvement by the end of H1... that's why I'm still here.