Member Info for Scrodingerscat

I stumped up a couple of weeks ago and bought in. Does seem to be an odd malaise to the current SP at the minute. I suppose sentiment will easily change on even slightly positive production news or a deal. Though with prices where they are across most mining commodities would waiting a quarter or 2 be a bad thing? Genuinely interested in LTH's thoughts.

Are you reporting all of my posts now? Haha well there we have it, not childish at all. Admin please be aware that this behaviour by definition is trolling.

I have my own opinions on echo chambers but can see why you have been censored over the last few weeks but believe it or not I am not the one reporting your posts, despite some being exceptionally distasteful and in breach of board rules. We are not here to make friends but consider maybe toning down your language, you come across as unnecessarily aggressive. Not every post is an attack. I guess I'm saying we all have points to make but there is no need to ram yours down others throats.

Strange logic. For the record no I haven't.

That question doesn't really make sense and I have to draw a clear distinction between debt and net debt. The liquidity tests have been covered in a fair amount of detail on here many times, but to add weight to my point just as an example based on current information TLW will be in breach of its gearing covenant.

Not sure.

Canarywharfy, I'm not even going to argue with you about Uganda anymore, you still feel the way you do, you are wrong but you are entitled to your opinion no matter how far off it is with no grounding in a real world financial setting.

I have been consistently posting the same way for months even when this was 15p. My first tranche I purchased at just under £2 many moons ago so I have skin in the game here, you can pretend everything is hunky dory but it's clearly not or at least not as straightforward as you think it is. Things are much improved yes and TLW appears to be turning the corner that's true, but to blindly ignore the risks that are presented before you is not a good path to follow. Look a friendly suggestion, you clearly need to brush up on how TLW's reserves lending facility works and the plethora of covenants that impact on our lenders approval or not. Now if you don't want to do that, that's entirely your prerogative but you are actually being disingenuous by painting a false narrative of everything being a formality and misleading people who read this board. So to everyone else DYOR.

This will bounce around with the price of oil now until re-financing is done and dusted. Renegotiated terms without dilution is the best case scenario, debt for equity or rights issue being less desirable but each day oil stays at this level then that particular elephant in the room is shrinking.

You take what you need from CMD, a conservative plan but scant on detail from a fundamental perspective. My big takeaways being a short term drop in production until new wells drilled in Q2, commercialisation of gas (something I mentioned months ago but no one could explain anything about what it would entail in the call yesterday), exploration ain't happening any time soon (full expectation to lose licences in this space), Kenya detail wanting as nothing we didn't know already about making it economically viable in a low price environment (I suspect the writing is on the wall and will be sold when oil recovers). 50 new drills over 10 years, Cost savings are impressive. Plenty of confidence to take forward, quite happy to sit and hold now, lets see how re-financing plays out, year ends and our wildcat drill in Suriname. GLA.

Pictet would be a safe bet as they have been accumulating in the teens. Värde Partners put a big short when price was around £2 from memory so they won't be sweating much if at all, but with a rights issue looking less and less likely if they decide to move on the whole short house will crumble. I think Värde will hold out until the question over re- financing is put to bed. So just patience for January RBL re-determination which they start working on tomorrow.

Well I'm glad to see you can see the funny side, though joking aside are they going to use the international energy agency's figures as a benchmark or your figures?

LuckCounts ironic name in the context that net debt is currently £2.4 billion.

It's not speculative these are the forecasted numbers straight from an IEA report. What numbers would you have preferred them to use Mikesilvers gut feelings?

CMD is listed as 9am - 11am 25th November.

It's a possibility, but not at these levels for £500M you would have to double the shares in issue. A debt for equity swap is much more likely but again these are options that are at the back of the queue. Next year I would expect 2 drills in Ghana plus only one exploratory drill (Suriname - already announced), progress for Kenya I reckon is a view to a sale at a higher price than current market would allow. If oil holds here or rises to the expected $48 then I wouldn't expect an RI. After all an RI will only be required if Kenya is to be retained with no farm down so it makes sense for this time next year to announce a rights issue if Kenya is in the long term plan, right now would be unnecessary while the SP is distressed as FID not likely till the end of 2021 as per agreed extension with the government of Kenya.

You had to have admiration for the confidence, not so much the execution.

Ah I remember him can't remember the name though, went all in on NMC health should have held the faith here although was 100% an all or nothing investor.

Superspecs it was mentioned at $35 earlier in the year but that didn't include total capex for H1 so is higher than $35, we don't know for certain at the minute but analysts and Moody's seem to share the view that inluding hedges it's $38 - $40 for 2020, $40 was also the base case scenario for cash flow forecasting as per the going concern statement in the H1 report.

You just keep digging, I'm not going to continue to keep spelling out how wrong you are. You patently don't understand how TLW's lending facility works, the relationship with lenders, you clearly grossly overestimate what FCF is being generated and you clearly don't understand why Uganda is still viewed as an unfriendly jurisdiction (hint Google Idi Amin) and how having an asset you can't afford to develop with a potential pipeline cost of $4 billion that you enter any negotiation with a major (no small or medium timers are going to be able to develop Uganda in this climate) with a weak hand. Like I said earlier, seek help.

Who cares what Moody's thinks... erm lenders you know the ones you reckon it will be a piece of cake to re-negotiate with. I don't know about everyone else on here but Slift's insight will be missed if indeed you have ****ed him off to the point he no longer posts, you on the other hand serve no other purpose than to remind us why they put warning labels on bleach.

I still can't get over your comment about Uganda, you are beyond deluded. Uganda would be a cut and dry a stranded asset for TLW without the funds to build a pipeline in a land locked country... Seek help.

It's comments like this that show you up as the fool you are, I'm not sure why people engage with you as your only insight is that of someone who can't add up and stubbornley sticks to alternative facts. TLW has not got the capital to develop Uganda, Kenya plus a South American asset and TLW clearly painted out the possibility that it would have likely run out of liquidity in the middle of 2021 without the sale not to mention Moody's would have easily downgraded deeper into junk territory. Why don't you do yourself a favour and reel your neck in and stop highlighting yourself as the village idiot.

If it breaks 26p today then what? A significant breakout? I doubt it unless some unexpected positive news drops somewhere in the world that can influence Brent and unless that's your exit point that's just short termism. Looks more likely to have a down day tomorrow if EIA reports an expected inventory build. Price of oil drives the price here at the minute and oil isn't taking a major leg up until restrictions in the northern hemisphere are curtailed. Oil is riding the vaccine news and OPEC+ bounce but the vaccine news in particular won't hold if more countries and US states keep adding further lockdowns or restrictive measures. If you are sweating over 1p or 2p price movements you are not thinking long term, short term choices are always more aligned to day trading.