Member Info for Scrodingerscat

"Keep your shorts up he who laughs last laughs better." The saying ends "laughs louder" numpty. Think about it, just because you are the last to laugh in a room, saying yours is better is purely down to the opinion of the room and a high opinion of yourself, you could have a right old donkey laugh for instance. Padre.

Just out of interest do you even know how difficult it is for a PI to secure a loan of stock from a broker to actually hold a physical short position? In my 20 years of investing I did it once and it was a right hassle.

Atheism and being agnostic are 2 very different things. Padre.

No thanks. I'm alright, being agnostic after all. We can leave the praying and divine questions and interpretation to the resident wind up fruit loop, padre Jubileey.

So now God has a stake in Tullow, and more to the point why does God want a war in Iran? You want people to take you seriously and yet you pray for a price rise, and death, jeez you'd be better off praying to an investment back and Putin because you are actually unhinged. People please take note and never ever take anything this guy says about TLW seriously, he's been wrong with just about everything and every utterance needs an olympic sized swimming pool of salt applied. DYOR.

You were recruited into the Iranian army? The plot thickens or the bull does.

Sorry now you have found the bible? I think Sun Tzu is more pertinent when assessing conflict, as in the absolute last resort. Besides none of which mentions nuclear fallout. I'm going to go with my gut as with all things, there is no nuiance for you and you know diddly squat about Iran and it's geopolitical situation.

Happy New Year everybody (with an exception), after not following a while had a read this morning and just discovered Jubileey is Canarywharfy (not shocked, you can spot the tone and childish attacks a mile off). Who now is hoping for a war in a country actively enriching uranium all because he/she/it is underwater on the only share it holds, what a scummy character it is.

Nobody dismissed Oxygen, marine and military was clearly mentioned in my response and this has been a cornerstone for years.

Look you clearly are over egging a very niche Hydrogen pudding, that may or may not prove one day to prove beneficial to the group. Meanwhile the group has focused on Consultancy and AI with relative success, Sapienza, Westek and Polaris are all starting to prove good acquisitions. However that being said Cartmell has failed to deliver on targets he set himself, the £100 million revenue target by 2020 has been and gone he should have adjusted this target when sitting on the funds from the raise for too long. Also not all acquisitions have been good or managed well and the jury is still out on Osprey which in the current climate is likely to be a cash drain.

PM44, that's all fair and well but you can mention hydrogen till the cows come home and it sells tickets because there's a great deal of buzz about it, but until TPG lands a Hydrogen contract that actually makes money or is transformative it currently is just a ticket for a ghost train (or hydrogen train if you like). The company has been promoting involvement with potential groundbreaking hydrogen ties for a while now and thus far has contributed zero to the groups fundamentals.

What I dislike about the Hydrogen types is they focus in the wrong direction. As there are much bigger positives, Sapienza has been a star, marine has been steady and AI and military work has gone from strength to strength. Hydrogen is the sum of nothing at the minute and if you are invested here purely on Hydrogen alone you picked the wrong company.

Adastra, although the rising price is a good thing I think you are straying into ramping territory. So purely in the name of balance if the last 3 years are anything to go by, expect some contract wins prior to an update or results released (which will be delayed this year, due to covid and the size of the group now). TPG always behaves the same way, quick to release good news and slow to release bad.

Safe to predict a possible price rise to 8 - 9p but if true to form expect the market to be unimpressed with anything other than net profit (anybody who researches the share price on results days going back years can see declines when results are released). GLA, for the record these are the last set of results I'm holding on for, I have set my expectations ( they are modest), so if these are not met then no matter the spiel from Cartmell I will move on.

Shorts don't expire. You are confusing spreadbets with physical short positions. Shorters borrow stock and sell it, it's not until they buy back in that the short position disappears. The borrowed stock belongs to the lender who will often charge fees over a period of time, they can ask for the stock back particularly if they want to sell it themselves with a rise for example, normally the borrower agrees to return criteria which when triggered falls under a margin call.

Betting up or down does not affect SP, shorting does because a sale takes place.

No that's ok, hopefully now you understand why with only limited information it is next to impossible at this stage to calculate your version of breakeven without being an employee of TLW's accounts department.

Basically if it's not even a calculation a financial analyst or broker would attempt to make don't worry about it. Good luck with your investments.

Slift, thought I'd logged into cloud cuckoo land for a bit. Good to see you are still around.

Breakeven including debt you get it all on here haha.

Look I think there is some confusion here. To clear it up we are generating FCF including hedges @$40 according to some consensus of analysts (I believe it's slightly higher than this but no more than $42 based on the decline in production).

The sticking block is the RBL, so to satisfy this TLW has to demonstrate it has sufficient funds for it's financial commitments for the next 18 months, normally in March and September but expedited to January on TLW's request for 2021. TLW has apparently already started the process of engaging or renegotiating with lenders particularly regarding the senior notes, so it stands to reason that your breakeven plus debt figure doesn't make sense because it is unlikely that maturity dates will not have changed come an approved RBL re-determination.

What do you mean, you've lost me? Break even is the point at which you start generating free cash flow. I'm ignoring RBL determination here because I'm fed up explaining it on here, so real simply our debt matures on specific dates so what maturity dates and notes are you referring to $300m bond due July 2021, $650m senior note due July 2022, or are you going whole hog and including the rest of debt when calculating your "breakeven"?

Most brokers, analysts and Moody's seem to believe it's approx. $40 ( probably likely to be $41-$42 with the slight decline in production during Q4). 2021 is anybody's guess, but hey ho it's quiet, it's nearly Christmas so lets just make figures up.

A rather inane response but to translate just in case you didn't understand, Canarywharfy aka the Ghost at the feast - a person or thing that brings gloom to an otherwise pleasant occasion. Right have had enough of your drivel will log back in when you go back to school.

And uttered without a hint of irony. I'm sure if there was a poll on who the ghost at the feast was you would win that by a landslide.

@toothache good to hear from you. You're not missing out on anything cerebral just the rejection of fundamentals, charts, decency and reality. I'm sure you've been watching Brent, could be an interesting week but so much for the golden cross we saw recently, here's hoping for some more green candlestick days.

I do like the positivity TT, but I'm struggling to join you this has been a very quiet period for contract announcements which is beginning to give me concerns for 2021. GLA.