Member Info for Scrodingerscat

I think that proves nothing here is binary. I've said all along that there are many issues for Tullow to resolve first before this will take a significant leg up. That's not even mentioning the many factors that are effecting oil, oil has been buoyant today because chiefly of the announcement of the trans Asia partnership.

The board seems to have picked up a legion of sages recently. I'm just going to see what's proposed on CMD, keep an eye on the January RBL determination, then will try and switch off till March. The amount of new people giving their opinion on here suggests interest is up which is good but I'm sure most long term holders like me are bored of or couldn't give a flying fruit what the new bloods price predictions are. GLA.

I don't think a time limit was given for any additional disposals. I would also argue that none are needed immediately. If oil holds up and FID in Uganda we could squeak through January RBL. Also Kenya appears to be in TLW'S thinking at the minute whether that's to keep the ball moving to get further towards becoming producing assets to get a better price or to keep it, it's anyone's guess. But the potential pipeline costs in Kenya have been bandied around here and are eye watering. New drills in Ghana should be the priority.

Looks like their downgrade and rating assessment looks pretty silly now based on $35 average oil for the rest of the year. They also estimated FCF above $40, well we are at $44.66 currently, with other vaccines chiefly AstraZeneca set to announce in the coming weeks. Even with record levels of covid infections in the US oil has remained bullish.

All eyes are on US stockpiles and if the EIA figures tomorrow mirrors the API inventory report they will only be 29 million barrels above normal levels, 450 million barrels is the major psychological level if it gets to here $48 - $50 Brent is realistic.

Not long to CMD. GLA.

-8 million, big draw if replicated in the EIA report. If election is clear cut this could be a good week for Brent.

Cacher, little bit disappointing on the Koolyanobbing Q3 payment but everything else seems positive, the fact Mimbula has started paying out at all is still a positive as far as I'm concerned. Cash position still good, I would hope for maybe another deal or 2 before year end, interesting that 6 NDA's still in play. Nickel mentioned separately from Battery Minerals, as well as Copper and Gold, personally I think Nickel would be a really good next addition.

Not at all, bearing in mind Biden is 78 and has rejected the green new deal and come up with his own half way house, even Obama with 2 terms didn't manage to shift the tone in the US. The US will start to change slowly, not now just because a demand for it from environmentalists but also because the oil lobby group can't afford to swim against the tide because 2020 has decimated their collective balance sheets.

OPEC+ has known for a while and made clear that US domestic fracking was one of if not the major long term threat. US demand for oil is not going to drop off a cliff overnight but a transition away from oil and more barriers on fracking ie. no tax breaks, higher decommissioning costs picked up by the companies themselves (US taxpayer already has a hefty bill from this after this years rout) more stringent environmental requirements and drilling permits not handed out like cheap confetti, higher costs combined with weaker balance sheets and less lenders willing to bank roll high production costs, will IMO all combine to mean less US fracking.

For the record I have no political affiliation (UK), have voted for Conservative, Labour and Lib Dems in the past so I'm definitely not partisan by any definition. But trump is without a doubt morally bankrupt, a habitual liar and generally bad news, the guy is clearly a conman and an idiot who is not fit to be president. Even if I were to gain financially from a Trump victory I would not want it. I don't hold any favour to Biden other than surely it would be better for global stability for someone to be in charge that isn't going to start a trade war on a whim. A return of a global US to the world stage will IMO be better for world stability and by extension the price of oil.

Investor relations.

Was expecting the share price to capitulate today but it is holding up well. 3 months ago this would have nose dived. Brent will be rocky this week but expecting a reduction in US stockpiles, Biden needs to win comfortably for oil to get on a stable path, a court battle will be bad for oil and Biden is not going to reverse sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Fracking in the US is oils biggest over supply probem at the minute.

First of all not super clever by any stretch but it's a bit of both, good news in the sense the group has cut off an apparent loss making part of the organisation (hard to tell as losses to YE 2019 are all that's been stated). Though as this was not included in the interims the true group position as of the end of H1 has been disguised by this disposal. So to put it simply the recent results would have likely been worse if not discounted.

Nickel_Investor, I can safely predict that no asset disposal announcements are on the cards until after CMD and more than likely not for some time after that if at all.

I don't think we have seen the bottom yet. Presentation is scant on detail, apart from the odd spike on contract/takeover news this has proved to be a dog of a share and presented no shareholder value. Even on the presentation it repeatedly focuses on staff increases, this company currently only exists to pay staff and director wages, shareholders are an after thought and there seems to be an ever growing number of shares in issue. I regret holding for as long as I have.

Think there seems to be a lot of short termism and expectation of a meteoric rise here at the minute ignoring the current plight of oil generally on weakening demand.

For all those expecting a shift upwards this is not going to happen while oil is beneath $40, as per the going concern statement this is the base case (low case was $30 DYOR). Anyways in the name of balance, positives are;

- Hurricane Zeta likely to have an impact on Gulf production.
- EIA suggesting shale production likely to drop slightly in November
- More bankruptcies or mergers/takeovers likely in the US patch with WTI where it is
- Q3 Brent spot averaged $42.96 so TLW should have a bit of headroom (hope for a positive trading statement).
- A possible Joe Biden presidency is likely to make shale even less competitive, with more stringent regulations, no tax breaks and permits not dished out as they are now.
- OPEC+ making positive noises about extending cuts into 2021.

Happy to be wrong and that the RNS will see a shift upwards, but with lockdowns that are looking increasingly likely across the globe expect restriction of movement and further demand weakening. It's clear though that TLW needs to execute a strategy to compete in a low price environment with low cost production, so Kenya's estimated costs are going to be pivotal for either development or disposal, along with the blocks in Guyana/Suriname.

Roll on CMD, our assets are excellent. IMO surviving this crisis means a last man standing mentality, getting to grips with debt and developing these assets to make money even with lower oil prices is what will eventually see value here, none of which will happen over night. GLA holders.

ISA_Investor you are clearly convoluting obvious short term ramping with those posts much more grounded with a finish line clouded in fog way off in the distance. I don't think anyone on here who's opinions I personally tend to follow or respect offered such a prediction.

I hope we get the RNS sooner rather than later, just so those who feel the need to mention $500 million every post have to move onto something else. Though I do agree that the mindset of moving from one binary reason to another for any price movement is never a good idea as you set yourself up for being right or wrong, when there always is a bigger picture to consider.

Some of them have been shorting since as high as £2 so even a significant rise will not bother them in the slightest. I said it before and stand firm greed got the better of all of them they should have tried to close out at 7p, the thought of not having to buy back in at all was just too juicy a prospect at the time. We have made great progress since the lows and I see the SP and even interest on the boards here show there are plenty of people now more confident to buy on the dips. Confidence these days is hard to build but Rahul hasn't put a step wrong yet IMO. I complained about the lack of news for a while but I can't think why any long term holder wouldn't be more positive now than they were in March. I held firm with Indivior recently and it paid off and I believe a similar hold here will eventually pay off, problems still to resolve there's no denying but so far so good.

Davstock, short interest will only fade when we are out of the woods. Arguably they have controlled the free-float here for nearly 18 months and some will and have doubled down on their bets. If they are wrong then some of them (if not all of them) are likely to get burned because on current volume if they needed to buy back in quickly it will be one big scramble, equally they could be right as nobody can at this stage say TLW is safe and in perfect financial health or likely to be soon. IMO a successful CMD could easily persuade larger investors than you or I to take the opposing bet. A steady trickle of positive news will see short interest waiver, as it's not a dogmatic principled position here as these are not green crusader funds as far as any of the shorts are concerned, purely taking advantage of a current and obvious weakness.

As I said weeks ago take each RNS as it comes, all of the biggies I listed today in another thread when/if we tick them off, collectively together they will equal a re-rate and most if not all could potentially be covered by as early as January 2021. Uganda is a step forward, there have been others that have also been ignored by the market, CEO appointment and RBL determination being 2 of the others.

Rocklawn, actually lol'd at that. Well you never know could have a dividend again by 2024.

TimmyG, I would expect a re-rate before CMD, the last review release was about 2 weeks after the year end results were released for 2019. By no means do I think this is a formality though. I would think Rahul would want this confirmed either way prior to CMD.

I know Adam has been doing a fair share of interviews recently but I recollect him mentioning that they are likely to release a trading update?Although deals are still the main driver for the SP at the minute, it would be interesting to see if Koolyanobbing has increased or maintained production so would hope for a larger quarter payment due to the inflated price of iron ore, also if we have received anything from Mimbula.

I just finished my disappointing lunch (BLT if anyones interested with little bacon to speak of) and was going to respond but thanks slift. Aside from the numbers being wrong in the post, there are some massive assumptions like the RBL is similar to a credit card. I know some have hinted at a profit for this year but the board has yet to change it's tune from break even as far as I'm aware.

Scaredycat, all of these on their own have a good chance of coming to pass.

Patience is the Key, blood is still in the water hence why Odey et al are circling still. Obviously TLW can't influence oil prices but if it can get lenders to buy in to a long term plan and buy time for the oil price to recover, which I have no doubt it will, then it comes out of this crisis much leaner and confidence will return. A lot of brokers/analysts believe that TLW will be a zombie company just existing to pay debts or worse collapse, its up to the board to prove otherwise. As at the end of the day TLW can't always sell assets to bail itself out and needs to invest in developing assets to have a future, debt needs to be serviceable and the balance needs to be right between development and servicing of debt. Oilers have always been highly geared and this will have to change as institutions, funds and lenders are already starting to be less enthusiastic about fossil fuel investments.

I think there does appear to be a lot of misrepresentation here about what the Uganda money means, I won't detail the maturity dates and the the debt covenants as this has been covered in detail on here and is detailed out in a number of reports (DYOR). Can I just stress the Uganda cash does not mean TLW is in the all clear, if oil doesn't return to at least $50+ in the next week or so (which it won't) then TLW needs to refinance hence the CMD.

So while an equity raise or debt for equity swap (I don't believe either will be resorted to as the share price is too low) is still on the cards as a finace option, shorts will not close entirely and any rise will be shorted, particularly with oil down where it is. A positive trading statement released shortly can reduce the impact of shorts but all those expecting a meteoric rise will only get one when IMO the following is passed; 1. Positive trading statement 2. Positive reaction to CMD 3. A jump in the price of oil 3. A credit upgrade 4. Successful renegotiation with lenders and successful completion of January RBL, bonus - Strike in Suriname & sale or farm down of another asset.