Member Info for Scrodingerscat

The feeling is more than mutual. You'd think you would learn your lesson, 9 times out of 10 you release some other incorrect calculation, statement or other then run with it as factual, only to be well wide of the mark when updates are released. Your problem is that everything is binary, nuance isn't in your vocabulary. There are multiple examples of you saying categorically that TLW was making mounds of free cash at the back end of last year, you were told many times that was unlikely and the trading update confirmed what?

Look the cash from the Uganda sale is pivotal to the current RBL determination, without it you would be looking at nailed on debt for equity, or worse. Your entire logic only works where TLW has much more cash and less or no net debt. You are advocating for the business to be run basically on a wing and a prayer. You'd be the worst CFO in the history of finance, as your posts seem to suggest we can just ignore debt generally while simultaneously developing Kenya and Uganda (cuckoo), they also highlight that you can't add up.

You are the answer to a question that nobody ever asked. Maybe infinite Jubileey's with infinite typewriters is the way forward, one day you will be right about something.

Huh what? A sweeping statement that is neither profound or clever because you can easily poke holes in it, so why then if that was true is BAE Systems outperforming Royal Dutch Shell, during relative peace?

To be honest TA he knows naff all generally, wrong about Uganda and wrong about FCF for 2020.

Jubileey, Armenia and Azerbaijan have just been to war hardly moved the needle. Only a full scale invasion of Iran, Saudia Arabia, Iraq, UAE or Israel will destabilize the oil markets. Proxy wars in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon have done little to influence oil prices. Go invest in an arms dealer if you are praying for global conflict. Clown.

What is it with you and war?

How does it defy logic? US inventories declining, Saudia Arabia imposed deeper cuts on it's own production than last year, 99% compliance across OPEC, freezing temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. Billions of dollars not deployed across majors and minors alike to keep development in line with a return to keep up with demand during normal times. I don't have a crystal ball but it doesn't take an oil analyst to see globally not enough drilling happened in 2020 and most companies have had to cut their cloth accordingly so reduced CAPEX in 2021.

Oil is not a tap you can just turn on and a drill magically appears then a rig pops up. Wells can and do cost a lot of time and more importantly millions in CAPEX (Suriname drill estimate is £27M). Not even to mention to get a well flowing. So really over simplified depending on where it's located land or sea and how easily can it be connected to existing infrastructure, or if there is even any infrastructure there already. Additionally consideration needs to be made for water injection or gas offtake etc. etc.

Perfectly logical price rise currently and there will be perfectly logical price drops in the future.

Or you could just write to your broker and ask about their share lending policy. I have been contacted by previous brokers in the past on other stocks to loan out shares for a small fee. More transparency is the key change but bearing in my mind there have been plenty of examples of funds not disclosing above the declaration threshold and the FCA has done very little to enforce compliance. Also I would say disclosure has dropped to 0.1% however in the context of TLW that's still 1.4 million shares, and plenty for a trading Algorithm to cause damage on a low volume day. I would like to see all short positions accurately declared... never going to happen though.

Toothache & Slift, I agree with both of you.

TA I'm no fan of short selling we have talked about this before and it provides lower entry points and helps create greater liquidity. However there are some unsavoury funds involved in shorting this share, 2 in particular so any boot for them has my blessing.

Slift, I often have to do double takes and re-read updates because how people can read something and come to a conclusion that doesn't even remotely relate to the information it contains both fascinates and confuses me. I mean someone this week was highlighting that the production numbers were good based purely on the notion that they could have been worse, but forgetting that the entire forward plan was built upon a slightly higher range. I think people see what they want to see now more than ever, and I feel sorry for them because we all eventually pick a bad stock and those who have the ability to see their mistakes quicker take less damage. If you are only ever looking for positives you will lose money and you can generally tell who try's to be objective and apply critical thinking.

There we have it in a nutshell conviction beyond reason, you could be right but the only people who have an idea are a very small number of people who include Les, Rahul and our lenders. It's not zero chance is it because as it stands we can't demonstrate we can pay the debt the that is currently being assessed.

I think that's a tad unfair toothache there are plenty of grounded folks here.

RBL is currently the only game in town at the minute, debt for equity? Who knows for certain, but I and many others have been saying for months that we would be short so it was a possibility. Many of the loudest voices argued the opposite and the trading update confirms they were wrong. Though looking beyond that a Kenya sale or farm down to me seems inevitable, granted a sale last year would have made the re-determination much easier but it would have come at a lower sale value and what people tend to forget is our lending facility is based on a balancing act of cash + oil reserves in the ground. But a reworked deal with the Kenyan government and steps closer to that FID point increases that sale value. I strongly believe we do not have the funds or the time to invest in Kenya. A resonable sale price within this higher oil price range, and as long as that cash in the main was invested in drilling in Ghana lenders in my opinion wouldn't be spooked by the reduction in reserves, because the knock on effect would likely be a reduction to the current facility.

That may have been the case 20 years ago but through google and other analytics, more complicated trading algorithms actually read the web looking at things like article numbers, search engine numbers, updated fundamentals and key word data positive/negative etc. to build a bigger picture beyond just market or commodity price. It's why when a black swan event occurs the first one to react is the one with the most sophisticated AI and why you see bigger market reactions than say in the 1990's. The biggest problem they have is with fake or viral news that isn't sourced.

Odey asset management, as toxic as hedge funds gets. Open big shorts and then get your mates in the Telegraph to write a damning article, pure speculation. No coincidence, but not or never have been invested in Metro bank but remember some of those articles were brutal and without any substance with the man himself quoted. Tory donor, Brexit donor, married into aristocracy and charged with sexual assault. So toxic that they are intending to drop the name from the partnership fund. The mechanics are different but it would be nice to see a Reddit style attack on any stock they have a big short on.

The Telegraph punted it as inevitable. Don't get me wrong it's possible as most balanced posters have highlighted for most of the back end of last year. But those production forecast figures are exceptionally disappointing and lower than I expected, we are not going to get back above 70,000 doing one drill a year, in terms of debt
for equity there are more options ahead of it. There are worse off oilers than TLW that have been able to refinance recently.

What I would say is Crispin Odey is heavily short here and is chums with the Telegraph top brass so not really surprising to see a boot fly in from that direction. I'd be interested to know what our breakeven is at this level but unless oil jumps to $80+ we are going to need our lenders to budge. If debt for equity swap happens then this will take 5 years to recover and will only experience a skewed recovery while other oilers enjoy the short term oil price recovery that the 2020 lack of investment in drilling and exploration will create in a year or two.

Like I already said we both know you don't document your dealings out of altruism. Your reasons for documenting your moves are not to dissimilar to ponzi salesmen, if people do mirror your moves then your risk is reduced however marginally because whether you admit it or not it's a subtle form of pumping. Hey it's not illegal but don't play the holier than thou line because a tipster always has an end game. You want people to read your musings and act upon them.

My objectives? I tend to only post on the boards on holdings I have were I get to vent my frustrations mostly and adopt some form of group therapy or ask about something specific, but this board has morphed into a pumping ground in the last 6 months and it's clear some of your hoodwinked followers have followed you here.

Happy New year to all holders.

Looks like the SP could do with an RNS to stop the retrace. Any guesses on when we will get a Q4 update? I'm going for the first week in February and hoping for a bigger payment from Mimbula and an improvement from Koolyanobbing from Q3. With hopefully positive progess updates on Spring Hill, Pukaqaqa, Warrawoona and Lake Rebecca.

I do think with some cash returning from the paying royalties TRR still needs to sort out a larger lending facility to acquire a couple more sizeable paying royalties in the short term so we can build critical mass quicker and are not waiting for progress on the development projects. Though full faith in Adam and the team they have put together significant value at break neck speed in 2020 with some excellent deals. I only have 4 holdings in my portfolio which I'm exceptionally bullish about and TRR is one of them. SP might have run away a bit but positive news will keep the momentum driving this forward GLA.

I'm not the one who has to telegraph all of my views and positions, why else would you post it on Twitter with the sole purpose of obtaining followers? Narcism, a samaritan or just maybe you benefit from having followers that will often follow your moves. You need lemmings to follow you without a doubt and you have greater influence on lower market caps. I am by no means questioning your moves (personally I'm not interested, been in this game for 20 years and have done well enough without taking tips) and I'm sure you have some value to your followers so you shouldn't see this as an attack. That being said I don't think you have the best of intentions and I say this as someone who used to work on a trading floor so have come across many people like you before. You encourage people to take the plunge with you which is selling snake oil whether you would like to admit it or not. My investment decisions on the other hand are mine and mine alone and I would encourage everyone on here to do the same and if not pay for wealth management. Just because it's worth repeating DYOR.

Good for you. Been holding for 4 years so have every right along with other long term holders to be frustrated with where TPG is currently at. The bottom line is Cartmell said £100 million revenues at the last placing by 2020, 2020 is now gone and still not even close. There are positives and you can read my posts to see that at times I have been positive, but the unaudited results will show widening losses. Contract wins have been as few and far between currently than they have in the last 2 years and lockdown is clearly impacting on the business. Like I said the hype of a disposal or takeover is all that is propping this up you can continue to sell your snake oil but this stock is not pandemic proof, by your own admission you have been in and out and I'm currently choosing to do the same which under the current circumstances is fully justified. You keep selling that snake oil and genuinely GLA, but I will leave you all to it as clearly new posters are happy with the echo chamber this board has become.

Surprised you've been here 5 minutes and Kromek is another dog of a share that is seeing increased turnover but higher costs. You can pitch yourself as some sort of sage, I have seen you on other boards but you are no different to those that are currently pumping Gamestop on Reddit. One rule of investing everyone should follow on these boards is DYOR.

Not at all. Have been invested here for a long time, the market clearly isn't impressed but you carry on burying your head in the sand.

I'm surprised you have any followers on Twitter. Not a good trading update but not a particularly bad one. No jam suggested tomorrow either, no new contract wins and clearly struggling during lockdown. Expect a loss of £3M - £5M reported in May, speculation about the disposal is all that will keep this up. I think it's time for me to consider selling up as I think I can come back to this share later in the year and it will be lower.

Errr ok, I will try and explain it so it makes sense to people from your dimension. If there are 2 parties that laugh, one laughs first then keeping it in the realms of your own madness a mute laughs, neither is better as that's an opinion. If a mute laughs at the end then with him having the last laugh the inferred meaning is the other party was no longer able to laugh, so all though not the actual loudest has the most meaning.

If you are still unsure you could try praying for an answer.