Member Info for Scrodingerscat

You really are pathetic. A bad actor currently sitting on a loss. If your analysis is as good as that 70% figure you still haven't explained then I can safely say that it should be roundly ignored by everyone. I think it's now the board's duty here to call you out on every post so people can work out for themselves if you are doing your "analysis" for their benefit or yours.

For those who have missed it
- HAPPYINVESTOR100 opened a short @53p only need a swing of 15 points and he's gone, if that's not motivation to buy and hold I don't know what is.

I was and still am invested in DGOC and although it did tick up on it's debut onto the FTSE 250 it wasn't really a major shift up. Just for the record it's a good dividend payer but is generally much unloved being a US gas focused producer that aggressively hedges it's production.

Accounting principles for oil and gas reserves dictate they are only accounted for when there is a high probability of existence or proof of reserves a 34% chance of success is not high enough, so the bottom line very overly simplified is if they discover oil in Suriname it will be added to the balance sheet at that point.

Evidence oh really. Count how many times you've used the word "speculate", not to mention "reading between the lines" in your recent posts. You still haven't clarified where you got 70% from and 100% of people on here know that.

There is no balance to anything you've posted today, also maybe read the dictionary about what "imminently" means. You are trying to give off an air of respectability to your opinions, the problem with them is that they belong to you and all you've got is rights issue, because, erm, hmmm 70% that will do. You do not have any insider information on how discussions are going with creditors other than you have skin in the game for these to go sour. Some may be getting carried away but the current price of oil has made these discussions easier and I trust the board when they say these are going well over a shorter with an agenda. Hopefully people can see where they need to apply trust here, whether that's to you a questionable anonymous actor or the CEO. DYOR.

Here he is, was wrong about today but still doesn't budge. 70% you don't half make stuff up, how did you calculate that one? You have already pinned your colours to a fire sale calculation. Your view is definitely not balanced, your view is based on the one assumption that a right's issue is inevitable, it's not but you are entitled to your opinion.

It is certainly a possibility but the disposal of EG has underlined this as more unlikely, and with oil sitting where it is creditors are likely to be more accommodating. Bearing in mind the Moody's rating was based on $45 oil and Gearing at 3.5x (now 3.0). Why dispose of these assets when you are intending to raise capital from shareholders anyway?

Exactly this, we know 2020 was a **** show. A re-rate won't happen overnight, confirmed that $65 oil equates to an additional $75M in OCF by the end of H1 on the CMD forecast of $250M of OCF generated in each half @50. Though the balance sheet doesn't look great that's what writing off exploration assets to save money, dusters and selling Uganda for much needed cash looks like. A find in Suriname helps boost the balance sheet, so does a reversal of the oil price forward look back to $65 and expect a lot of swapping between 2P & 2C over the next 24 months.

In the short term expect some buying on Friday as FTSE 250 tracker funds will need to buy back in.

I don't think it's going to move much either way, but my guess is down. The balance sheet will be reeling from the sale of Uganda and the impairment, we know of these plus the redundancy payout hit. The only chance we have of a surprise to the upside is if they reverse the impairment decision but Rahul and Les are unlikely to do that until we see more than 6 months of $65+ oil. Like I said many times these results will be alright in the context of falling production and the biggest flop in oil in a life time but they are not good, how could they be.

End of H1 is when we start to see the benefits of higher oil, cost savings from reducing the headcount and disposing of Uganda. TLW not profitable in 2020 is obvious. The reason the sentiment has returned is, debt appears to be pretty much sorted (touch wood) and according to the companies own official releases even at 57-60K bopd @50 oil TLW is making money. Don't get too hung up with tomorrow 2020 was a crap year for TLW you need to look beyond, the 2021 narrative is padding out and thanks to cost cutting and the high oil prices it's looking good.

You should change your name to rightsissueinvestor100. 90% is a bit presumptive based on you know the sum of diddly. Even you can see that the fact TLW is beginning to be noticed on other boards that sentiment is changing. Anyways you keep plugging away at that £4 BP target and we will happily patiently wait for our re-rate later in the year.

The results for 2020 will not be good from a balance sheet, production, cost cutting perspective or in relation to 2019 as per the trading update RNS. TLW made an operating loss in 2020 and asset value took a hit because the future oil price assumption was reduced to $60. However the results are an opportunity to update the market on current trading and progress with debt refinancing. The H1 report is the one to watch for 2021, so fair to assume it's possible a retrace tomorrow if the RNS doesn't sell significant progress on the CMD plan. The FT headline will focus on the loss, it always does.

Oil has dropped $2 and TLW is still blue, what's so special about 60p anyways. A few weeks ago 40p and 50p were big deals now 40p is firmly in the rear view mirror. Enjoy the ride or don't, it's your choice.

Happyinvestor100 has no holding here and would only consider buying in if a right issue happens on Wednesday (Doesn't even have an amount), errr ok. Tell you what speak to RD, I'm sure he could give you an exclusive 1 share option (strictly for you, since you are such a happy investor), say for $100M. How's about it? You'd be very foolish not to.

I'm happy to continue picking up dividends here bought my first tranche years ago at 80p and my second batch when the SP fell off a cliff in March last year, but you can't help but feel this share is missing much love from the market, the board might even remove themselves from the LSE to go stateside. It has been said on here recently but the hedging the company does is some of the best in the industry. Would a marketing campaign help or is this just the peak now due to the falling popularity of oil (even though we all know this is a gas company and no amount of electric cars are going to heat homes in the USA). Anyways just some cobbled together musings over what was a decent set of results.

It's all this profit is profit nonsense. Yes some people need cash to pay tax bills but you know how much you owe after the end of the tax year, I always put any CGT amount in a savings account, no point trying to speculate on money you know you have to pay the taxman, did it when I was younger got caught out trying to scrabble around for money when it became due so never again, each to their own though.

If you have convictions and still see value you hold, simple as that really. Some people talk about de-risking but surely you applied your risk tolerance or rules before you bought in. I'm not even considering touching that sell button now until I have seen the H1 report later this year and if it's a much improved set of results 2022 wash rinse repeat. Those 5% or 10% brigade only provide liquidity and I never understand the desire to jump into putting that money somewhere else, yes there are sometimes golden opportunities but often people are jumping into a dead cat bounce or falling knives. Longer term investors as a rule outperform the quick buckers.

Nobody called you a shorter. I hope for your sake your investments are more balanced than you have outlined on here because they sound like the positions held of that of a monkey with a trading account. Yes you may have big potential gains but you equally are invested in the riskiest plays on the planet. I'm no sage but you talk about 10 years, but if a correction occurs then you won't have a pot to **** in by then. Good luck you are going to need it.

No known about it for 30 years, I have economics training and I'm a chartered accountant and it is always given along with Tulips as the bubble examples.

If you are heavily invested in blockchain and Tesla then you are not an investor you are a speculator and I hope you get out before the mother of all corrections. Even Issac Newton got caught out by the South Sea Trading Company and I will warrant he was a lot more clued up on things generally than you my friend.

capdailbrit, I know which person advocates selling stock in a strong recovery play to putting your money into a company that doesn't make money or even many cars and only benefits the funds who bought in years ago at sub $50, not to even mention it's $620 a share so the person in question can only buy 4 or 5 shares. These rises bring out the "stupid money" that's for sure.

Tesla is grossly overvalued anyone with eyes can see that produced 500,000 cars last year market cap nearly $600B, there's some nuance to the figures I will give you intangibles and other revenues, assets etc. but to put into context each car is not worth £1.2M. Tesla is being pumped like it will be the only electric car manufacturer on the planet you just need to look at Volkswagen, Volvo, PSA, General Motors to see that's not the case.

OCF was anticipated to be 0.5 billion @ $50 oil. Oil is nearly 40% above that forecast so put simply oil holds here you can add $150M to that figure even if it retraces somewhat and roughly accounting for Jan/feb average spot prices. I can't see why anyone wouldn't hold now until at least H1 update, Moody's rating at $40 oil looks ridiculous now more than ever. Why worry about up and down from here, the cash made so far this year has more than likely already paid for the Suriname drill not even fussed if this is a duster as it's not part of the forward plan now, and at this level enough cash could easily be generated soon for the Q2 drill planned for Ghana. Personally I think the board need to re-consider the impairment hit taken in 2020.

$350 oil you are mental. Mad Max wasn't a look into the future you know. I was a chemical engineer that studied hydrocarbons in my youth and although I'm a firm believer in it's properties and how useful a compound it is, it will be supplanted. Oil is produced naturally very slowly over millions of years it will be replaced or supplanted in the future, progress demands it. If you are praying for $350 oil you envisage a dystopian future because that price says supply has broken down and demand hasn't changed.