Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Already started, I worked it out very roughly that a well needed drilling to completion every 65 days (allowing time for ship to transit between locations or to return to port etc.) to achieve 4 wells. Thing is though some take longer than others, not all drilling goes to plan ask McDade, a bodged one and some other fupp ups cost him his job. So for obvious reasons a 60 - 90 day turn around would be more than acceptable.

ISA_Investor agree 100% don't need to ramp or de-ramp a share ever.

Form your own opinions and assess your own value. I wouldn't want a Gamestop scenario, I want the company to do well based on it's merit to do so, similarly if circumstances change and a share no longer merits me holding the opposite is equally true. Not because every lemming (no offence lemming) without a brain cell hopped on a rise up on pure speculation and were influenced into doing so and encouraged others to do the same. If you want huge fluctuations with no thought or value attached go stick your money in crypto. Not hodl or any of that BS, you hold, buy or sell because you see value or you no longer see value. The investment world over the years has certainly managed to attract a lot of get rich quick thinking, in my 21 years of trading I got speculation out of my system 20 years ago. You catch too many falling knives trying to speculate because your entire aim is to sell to the next chump in the chain. You should only buy in to any stock or short after proper research and due diligence, like him or lump him happy did do his research.

Adastra, there are other nails but my comments are borne out of frustration. The pandemic has been the ideal time to look at making the group leaner. Most of the entire corporate world has looked at it's costs over the last year and what have TPG done apart from telling the market employees are well protected and margins will suffer, or disposing of an entire division you have pumped millions into? A wasted opportunity during a justified time. Look how many sites they have presence at now. Are all these necessary? Maybe it's because I do financial audits for a living, but if more offices and an ever growing headcount don't directly translate to the same growth in revenues, you have a problem. The 2020 results should shed more light onto these concerns I have.

TPG for me, to have strength going forward needs to be more centralised than it currently is. The whole group seems to behave like a small gaggle of separate companies only very loosely linked. You can tell by how long it now takes to pull their accounts together that there is certainly more they could and should be doing in this respect.

If anything they have aired on the side of caution by not including 2025 maturities. If this pans out as we all hope, a 50% farm down in Kenya as I suspect will happen and easily enough time and headroom to plough on with Ghana drills and more importantly have $500M - $600M to contribute to a pipeline in East Africa as a smaller stakeholder. 2021 in terms of Kenya really could be the point where we stop kicking the can down the road. Transformational truly as hopefully no more worries about the bi-annual liquidity tests and $900M not going out of the coffers by 2022.

Gone into auction, you really didn't time your short well this morning. I haven't shorted for years but even I know the golden rule is wait for volumes to settle before taking a position... schoolboy error really.

I think his problem is that he has been fixated on one outcome and although he is right it is still a possibility, he hasn't considered other options and where those options rank in likelihood of panning out. I posted a while ago about a rush to refinance in the US patch, where interest has been strong even with chapter 11 bankruptcy filers, with oil where it is and yields and base rates in both the UK and the USA down in the doldrums you would be hard pushed not to see that there will be interest... will it be enough? who knows at this stage but an oversubscribed RNS or short fall RNS are the outcomes now. We will see in a week or so.

Happy "reading between the lines" again, are you certain that they won't be able to secure the subscription desired... pure speculation again, we will see.

The RNS states the transaction will not be used to pay off the 2025 maturities which is interesting.

The biggest drain on TPG is it's wage bill and the significantly above average remuneration packages of key board members. It has been pointed out before, but supposedly dead weight assets that have been disposed of in the past have come good in other parties hands. Why is that? My view is there doesn't appear to be much if any central cost control, I would wager looking at the various job boards over time, you have people in similar if not the exact same roles across the group. You don't have to scroll down here far to see that a prevailing view is that board members and employees are well rewarded and shareholders have been fed jam tomorrow lines for years, but now even that has stopped.

People talk about synergies all the time on here, but not everyone in the respective subsidiaries are revenue generating consultants, technical specialists or engineers, but when does the company ever talk about looking at the groups costs. Every new acquisition just appears to create a seemingly more bloated organisation. Capital discipline and looking at the group's overall costs appear to be alien concept's to Cartmell & Co.

Not long now for another on the record net loss to be reported, may not even need exceptional items to pad this one out.

I really hope these Hydrogen trains turn out to be a golden goose or we get a too good to refuse offer for Marine. I'm staying for now solely because of Sapienza. Sorry guys felt particularly frustrated towards TPG today, genuinely GLA, hope it all comes good for us one day.

Q1, I'm keen to see what production was over the quarter. A bit too soon but I think a farm down of Kenya announcement would be warmly welcomed, be interesting to see what people would expect for a 50% reduction of Tullow's stake. Very rough numbers but when you discount the cost of building the pipeline into the equation TLW's stake in Kenya could be valued at anywhere between $400M - $500M. Uganda is not a good benchmark to base Kenya's value on because yes there are more reserves but the pipeline costs are greater and also sold on the cheap at a time of depressed oil prices. Would people be happy with $200M - $250M, or would you expect more or less?

I would even bet that Paul Mcdade and his vehicle will have already be in contact about TLW's assets, would they be interested in Kenya? No idea, but plausible as not too difficult to join dots on pure speculation :-D

Who knows but if the intention was to sell Kenya then unless there's already a letter of intention already in place with a third party why would you risk A. Demonstrating to the market that you can't afford to develop it and B. Leaving Kenya to force you out of the licences... Both resulting in you getting less in any potential sale and going against the current principle of value accretive deals only. I believe there is either a deal to sell or farm down already in place or TLW intends to develop with the largest stake, the alternative option of just seeing how it pans out doesn't strike me as something Rahul or anybody with sense would do.

JMAX, agree... I know it's a case of some of the wiser heads on here putting 1+1 together but with $1B of liquidity headroom 2021 maturities due later this year are covered ($300M). Plenty of time to refinance before future RBL determinations, maintaining a headroom to cover the test for the 2022 maturities. So no immediate need to refinance unless you need additional credit lines, a more suitable repayment timeline, a reworked RBL with less restrictive covenants, or a reduced coupon for some future big spends and the Kenyan development plan needs submitting before the end of Q2. Coincidence... possibly.

I thought for a long time the intention would be to sell Kenya, and they may still do if they don't secure a favourable re-finance deal but the bottom line is TLW does not need to refinance immediately with oil where it is. Plenty of time before 2024 becomes an issue and the board seem to think they will be producing much more then, than they are today. So why the rush to refinance now, possibly to save a few million here or there but I'm of the belief this is to sure up finances for a geniune field development proposal to the Kenyan government this year. If TLW does not have an agreed proposal with Kenya by the end of the year it will be sold or significantly farmed down so another party has the largest stake.

Jeffries have been the most downbeat broker for a long time, they have upgraded this year from 13p to 38p.

The analyst covering Tullow has been quoted in the FT and debt is clearly at the forefront of their rating. The share is being ridden down on the current lack of news. DM your constant posting suggests to me and everyone with sense that you are watching intently. I really hope that you get caught out when the refinancing RNS is released as you truly are undeserving of any benefit from a potential rise in the SP. Shameless daily parasitic antics, for once I 100% agree with Happy. I feel for anybody who bought or sold based on either your ramping or de-ramping. You are truly a morally bankrupt despicable character.

The "Chaos" you talk about has been ever present over the last 14 months, so why did you feel it was a good investment in March but not in April? Saying words like volatile and chaos are utterly meaningless, we all know there's a pandemic as we have lived in it for over a year now. The truth is you hit a price and thought you'd sell and you want back in, no ifs or buts. That is why you are still here backtracking over the things you said, and that's despite everything being better now in the UK and the USA than when you sold up, even Europe is doing better than it was just a few weeks ago.

There are risks with all routes out of this mess, but it's not going to be forever, vaccinations are working and a top up ****tail yearly like the flu jab to cover various emerging strains is already in the offing. 10 deaths recorded in the UK yesterday, the green shoots of recovery are already here... you don't make money by investing sitting on the sidelines waiting for everything to be hunky dory again and you know that to be true because you said it yourself just a month ago. Why are you still here though? You think you can guess the bottom or the top of this share, well trust me when I say far smarter people than you have tried and failed on that front, you're not even smart enough to know people can easily see your old posts. The truth is DM you're actually quite dim.

Dreamachine you are a nailed on pump and dump artist, most have the good sense to move on. You made your profit fine, but you want a repeat and your greed is palpable, because you want others to suffer just to get your re-entry point. This is you a little over a month ago when the price was 57p "Wealth moving from the impatient to the patient, as the old saying goes ;-))) TLW have gone through what amounts to an almost warzone, and yes, now come out the other end and poised well to capitalize from the recovery now in play - very exciting times ahead, and again, certainly not thinking of taking any profit before we’re back in the 100’s ;-))))".

You are entitled to your opinion but you are not an investor TLW currently needs, we would all much prefer someone to invest who believes in the recovery plan, stickier hands are needed than you and I would have no problem seeing you missing the boat simply for the underhanded games you are trying to play. Either you were wrong a month ago or you are now, hopefully everyone has you marked as I do, zero credibility and a liar (it's in black and white, they are your words).

$67 oil and still this goes down. Frustrating is the word yes indeed, the current price of oil means TLW's production declines are effectively having limited impact, impact obviously being that the company is not maximising returns. However just basic mathematics 75000 bopd at $51 is less revenue than 58000 bopd at $67 and they are drilling 4 wells over this year to start reversing the declines. With €1B in liquidity headroom at the last check even if they had to pay 2021 they can, and remember 2022 maturities are not due for ages... it's so bleeding obvious that Kenya is the story here.

It's been said before that re-finance is the biggest news story in town but a successful re-finance is just the opening act, possibly a prelude to a Kenyan development even with a farm down could turn tullow into a whole other level of production beast in a few years. The board is aiming to get production in Ghana closer to 100K bopd net to Tullow, a farmed down Kenya throw in another 20 - 30K bopd. May sound like a pipe dream right now, just imagine in 5 years you sold out at 47p when with some patience TLW became a 130K bopd producer and found significant sweet light oil in it's South American acerage. It's Friday so I'm allowed to dream. Have a nice weekend and GLA.

If you read what I said properly, I clearly highlighted that was reserved for small cap companies. But even if you influenced just one person to buy or sell, I still feel that's shameful antics. I've said it many times make your own decisions and don't listen to half the crap on here, I include myself in that statement.

Time will tell... meaningless cliche, what utter nonsense is that? You will doctrine whatever story you choose to release here to make you look good, conveniently getting out at every top and in on every bottom. This may come as a shock but nobody cares and fast forward 6 months hopefully you've moved on from boring everyone before the market opens with a new scare story.

Been on here for ages so most know by now how long I've been holding, I'm up 66% currently as my average is much lower than the current SP, Stephen Beetham's potential gains to crystallize dwarf mine and then some as well as most others on here and you want people to listen to you. Like listening to a tramp who shouts at traffic you have zero credibility. Hold, buy or sell everybody can make their own decisions.

Look you play your in out small chump change games that's fine, those of us who see the prize beyond the days end will hold through the ups and downs and I have no doubts by October with refinance sorted, a development plan for Kenya, H1 financials out there and a continued drilling campaign 50p will be just a distant dream just like 20p and 30p where not so long ago.

You don't do arguments and yet this is your third one this week. Lay off the trolling and you won't look like a paid ramper. Sheesh touchy.

MosquitoSqudron why are you trolling the board? No offence but your messages read like a recent email I had received from a Nigerian national who wanted to pay thousands of dollars into my bank account, to avoid the Nigerian government from taking a large sum of inheritance tax from him after the sad recent passing of his elderly rich uncle. All he needed was my bank account details :-D

No FOMO more like FOS as in full of sh.. From this point forwards posters/readers should ignore what he says entirely, it's clear from his posts what his game is. Why would he conveniently buy just in time before a near 10% rise if only a few days earlier he was stating lockdowns in Europe would see our investments collapse. He's trying soft manipulation ie. tries to influence the price in a direction that suits him, he stuck around because he wanted a lower price. These sort of tactics only really gain traction on Aquis or AIM small caps but I imagine it's entirely feasible somebody read his recent posts that gave them some doubts and they sold up.

All of us are just sharing our opinions, good fortune stories or frustrations for the most part but there of plenty of those who are trying to influence readers, there is no want or need from them to engage in reasoned discussions. Anyways semi-literate rant over, take what Dreamachine says at face value at your own peril.