Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Lovelyhorsey said "but revenue seems to be exploding." - Well of course they are! Literally what inflation means: 'the condition of being inflated' from the verb 'inflate' which means 'to increase (something) by a large or excessive amount' - All those blabbering on worried about debts + massive crash have completely overlooked the fact that inflation is precisely the opposite of deflation! So yep, no surprise to me these revenues keep on pouring in i.e. rather easy to service debts. SP's have been falling on 'fears of a crash' but... despite repeated warnings where is the crash?! Gov and BoE is allowing inflation to remain elevated, those hoarding their cash will just watch on as it's value falls.

Sep 2023 half year results stated: "Net debt £19.7bn, (31 March 2023: £18.9bn), increasing mainly due to pension scheme contributions with net free cash flow for the first half of FY24 substantially offsetting the payment for the final dividend of FY23" Link here: https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/fy24/h1/bt-group-h1-fy24-release.pdf

Completely agree with fleccy, your money is far better off invested in BT than it is sat in a bank being eroded away by elevated inflation (which won't return to 2% target for at least another 9+ months). Investing in BT protects you from inflation, since BT can raise their prices taking into account CPI rate. BT customer base is assured by population growth, landline/mobile network access is an essential service everyone needs, and in the event of UK economic downturn Gov could not allow BT to go to the wall (it's not at risk of doing so imo). So yep, invest in BT, it really is a no brainer!

That sounds quite a sophisticated and advanced planned theft there Robert, hope you get all of your money back. Surely somewhere along the line there must have been fault by one of the companies not doing due diligence checks?

And for anyone saying I should have saved £277.77 per month (£10k split up into 36 equal chunks, with £641.07 of interest earned on top) - Well... even had I planned my saving in this way (using 4% bank interest rate example - relatively generous as banks took ages to pass on higher rates) I'd have still lost with purchasing power of my savings being significantly eroded by elevated inflation (6%) - I'd have saved up £10,641 still far short of the £11,910.16 required to make up the difference!

Poker - it literally is that simples.. Here I demo via medium of mathematics... Perhaps Rishi should take note, apparently he loves maths (not that he's any good at it mind you!)... Thinking ahead I take out a 3yr loan at 2.9% fixed rate, before the BoE raises its loan charges, I do this because I believe inflation is imminently set to soar!.. So, I pay back my loan over the 3yrs, in total I repaid: £10,447.38 - the loan cost me £447.38 (some claim I've wasted some money and I should have worked hard to save up!) However, I wanted benefits of bringing forward my big purchase, with side effect of making me v.happy!.. Meanwhile, over in another universe parallel me 'did the right thing', they saved up really hard, they did all that waiting around to eventually buy the item in 3yrs time (so boring!)... For simplicity throughout the whole 3yrs the bank were fairly decent, they paid me 4% interest throughout... meaning I had to save £261 a month but I won £592 in bonus interest (okay so it makes £9,999 but we're pretty close!) - However, parallel diligent(?) me totally forgot to account for inflation! DANG! Again, for simplicity, the annual inflation rate had been 6% throughout the entire period... This means the seller only went and put their prices up (SAY WHAAA!) - The item I wanted to buy will now cost me £11,910.16!! DOH! So I'm 3yrs later and £1910 squids short!

Poker - taking out bank debt is still cheap... even at a 6.4% loan rate with inflation running at 4% this means a real rate of just 2.4%! Bargain.

Time to move on up! Where will the SP close this week? Can we hit £7?

Mostly agree with you fleccy, though not worth £4 imo... £1.60-65 before the year is out so get your buys in!!

"if the cpi rpi figures come in higher than expected the market will conclude that a reduction of rates will be delayed - that will tank the market" - This is best demonstrated via graph of a current country experiencing hyperinflation... as you can see, elevated inflation does not tank the market, in fact it drives it sky high... of course the problem being the currency itself becomes worth much less (or in the case of Argentina worthless):

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/stock-market

Bailey is impotent - All he can do is hold the line on rates, threats of raising bank rates are entirely empty - it won't happen as consequences for mortgage holders, unsecured loan debtors and business debtors would be catastrophic and Bailey knows it, hence inflation will stay elevated for a fair while yet in the UK. First rate cut will probably land around Apr/May. Inflation is going to be stubborn because Gov acted to delay inflation to hit the halving inflation pledge, lots of delayed backpay to workers is landing Nov/Dec + Jan which will help keep inflation elevated.

Carrington - Shares won't tank with higher than expected RPI + CPI because higher inflation means revenues soar, thereby allowing debts to be easily serviced by the revenues pouring in - SP's do well because the fears of deflation (falling stock prices) fail to materialise. Meanwhile... those who placed their bets on cash + bonds have their efforts thwarted, as the elevated inflation erodes values of their holdings.

Final hours of sub 130p imo - when PSNB, CPI + RPI data lands on Wed this should push up all FTSE shares, as it's likely to further demonstrate issues with UK economy and with it bring forward the projected date for the start rate cuts by BoE. Markets have already brought forward their forecasts and the new data should reinforce.

Historically buying UK Gov bonds has been low risk... Forward looking though, who knows if that'll continue to be true? - £3trillion UK debt now and yet no growth in the size of the economy to fund paying the debt down - TUI's debt relative to it's revenues and income is well within sensible plus travel will keep on booming as the bounce back from Covid grows too.

Banking Crisis was caused by Narcissists like Fred the Shred and also as a result of pressure from Tory benches to make financial regulation more lax too... "Labour have always wrecked the economy, never needing any help." you claim - totally untrue, the right love to bellow how great they are at business when in reality they're just efficient at stealing the lunch money and clothing from hard graft of the working classes! Anyway £1.60-65 soon for BT, that'll help tide me over till Disaster Truss and Rishi depart for California!

Masaimara - if investors hate massive debts then why are they buying UK Gov bonds?! lol - UK Gov is insolvent in all but name!

BigWill - I'll be using any profits earned towards my house deposit because thanks to this current Government failing to grow the economy my pay has been lacklustre for far too long a time and they've simultaneously driven up house prices to mad levels with help to buy and LISA's. As for persons arriving in small boats... given they have no wealth, power or political influence it's totally bizarre the current Gov continually makes attacks on them, it's a complete waste of time, effort/energy and money, current Gov just look delusional as a result. A future Labour Gov will do the basic essential, and easy thing of just processing applications in the proper adult way (without need for anyone to become so desperate as to make an unnecessary + dangerous journey).

Dathrilla - Go for it, only too happy for others to unload more shares, that way I can do some more buying :-)

Dathrilla - true about the market never being wrong - Well I'm in for the long haul here anyway, I've taken care not to over-extend, enabling me to buy up more on emerging dips where I think the price is good value.

Dathrilla - Certainly don't disagree with the recent underperformance of the SP (hard to disagree with cold facts lol!)... However, there are lots of reasons for positivity... 1) Massive boom in travel continues (browsing winter ski/sun breaks there's lots already booked up!) 2) Revenue is furiously landing in the coffers 3) TUI board got ahead of the market on the debt side of things with the RI, thereby avoiding punishing debt servicing costs 4) Low oil prices (catching analysts by surprise as they predicted $100-$150 crude and some) 5) December is when families browse, book and pay deposits on their summer 2024 - just as tonnes of backpay (from delayed Government pay deals) lands into the pockets of hundreds of thousands of public sector workers. 6) Inflation (especially fuel/energy) has come down, together with some tax cuts being and with many have been cautious with their spending these past few months means lots of additional demand is about to be unfurled, 2024 will see insatiable demand for travel/holidays!