Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Cheers Taverham, although I'm invested I see this going sub £1 on tomorrows inflation figs - shorters bound to have some more fun through the rest of this week, and perhaps right through until we begin to approach the March budget too?

"We achieved a positive Q1 Group underlying EBIT of €6.0m for the first time1"

This might be a controversial opinion given excitement with results and the SP rise today... However, I was expecting better. When I say this I feel it's important to say context is important, yes the pandemic caused seismic losses and put a sound business into temporary dire jeopardy... it's great to see TUI beginning to emerge and I still hold the view it's a great business and the board did a fantastic job navigating through the Covid storm. Debts are under control but... with recent inflation having been so high I really was expecting an even bigger inflow of cash revenue into the coffers today. I'm also uncomfortable with the delisting too, since anything which may alienate UK PI's is not a good thing right now imo, whilst there's a recession in flight. I had to sell my TUI holdings on 2nd Jan due to personal reasons which I've now resolved (thanks partially to the profits I made from the sale), recent days I've been pondering buying back in (albeit with a smaller holding) but unfortunately I won't be doing so because I think in the coming months ahead we could see a negative outlook emerging here... Just my current thoughts, and maybe some data may get published which could change my mind? I still like TUI and I want to invest... I just don't feel it's for me at this minute.

Strap yourselves in! Though some may cheer the delisting vote result tomorrow... there could be a sea of red as this week trundles onwards once the data lands showing elevated inflation and potentially a shallow UK recession atop too... the extra day this month may bring little relief too as UK faces up to election tax giveaways that it can ill afford...

Nope, I'm invested and plan on buying up some more because I see long term value at these SP's - the blip down is just short term and reflective of the wider economic fears. BT itself is a sound business and appetite/demand for telecoms services will continue to prove to be insatiable!

If these Valentines Day inflation figs come in higher than anticipated (I think they'll prove surprisingly & stubbornly elevated) we could see more selling off across FTSE indices, perhaps including BT... I think these recent SP drops have far more to do with this upcoming data landing, than they do with the new boss taking over. Reasons I think inflation shall prove more stubborn than expected; long delayed pay deals delivering bumper backdated paycheques for workers through Nov/Dec/Jan, + NI cut, and people drawing down their savings pots (to maintain their std of living). I don't see BoE making a rate cut until May, Tax giveaways in the March budget will soften the blow for those overly indebted but the bigger the giveaways the longer the Bank will have to hold, or the slower they shall make their cuts.

The pension burden is definitely a concern... but does it mean BT cannot service it's debt? Currently I do not believe that's the case but definitely is one to keep an eye on.

The much bigger factor which is far lesser discussed... is simply the ability to service debts. Important to remember debts are often taken out for a specific purpose... to invest and drive up growth in revenues and so long as debts taken out to invest continue delivering cash inflows into the company coffers (thereby permitting the servicing of such debts) then there is not really a problem at all! It's why those constantly crying wolf with incessant wailing on and on about debt and an imminent crash have turned out to be rather wrong... because they're turning what is a complex global economic system into far too simple messaging.

Total baloney... debt always goes up over time as every single globalised economy grows... just look at the US an compare it's debt in 1990 with today: https://www.investopedia.com/us-national-debt-by-year-7499291 - Much like taking out a bigger credit limit on your CC Card as an individual grows their income over time.

Will we see this head sub £1 before COP today?

Bertram, it's generally what tends to happen when a nation decides to put up barriers to trade... the resulting lacklustre growth means gov responds by putting up taxes, printing cash plus launching a few incentives, like help to buy, to prop up the mirage and keep revenues flowing in... eventually they can prop it up no longer as the ability to take on ever more debt runs out of steam.

Typically Tui has tended to sell off towards the later end of the week... could we see 510p by Fri?

I've increased my BT holdings... BT's FTTP rollout continues at a balanced pace, together with EE's 5G progression... BT is not overspending and on the contrary is cutting wasteful inefficient spend on copper. In my view the widespread cash savings being made, via cuts on commuting spend and expenditure on commercial property, will now flow elsewhere... probably into investment in digital infrastructure and tourism/travel/leisure... right now if you're in business there's no way you'd propose cutting digital spend, for if you did you'd probably be out the door pretty rapid. Similarly for households with Netflix/sports and other streaming packages, I cannot see a world in which hard pressed consumers cut their streaming spend to return in their droves to Freeview. Many will be far more likely to rip out their TV Ariel and cease paying the TV licence instead. BT shares are a bargain right now imo, load up whilst you can!

Not good news on the various 737 issues:

https://news.sky.com/story/boeing-may-delay-jet-deliveries-after-supplier-finds-glitch-with-fuselages-13064698

Delisting from the FTSE is a foolish move though, populist in this current moment it may be but sustainable for the long term... I doubt it

Lucky7777... tad childlike there, akin to playground 'no take backsies!' - pathetic by those who lied making false promises... there are no benefits to brexit, only the Russia/china gain from sowing seeds of disunity.

Will GLP close out?!

Ridiculously good results. SP should be 270p plus and perhaps £3 by the next set of results!

Leaving EU is a fools errand... California would not contemplate departing the U.S.A. - any nation leaving EU will re-join within as little as a decade.

Percentages for AFD and Reform are rising simply because the qty of all other voters has fallen... simple route to annihilate AFD & Reform is to drive up the voter engagement + turnout because despite media rhetoric most people are not raging hard right wing loons!

Delisting from the FTSE is equally as foolish as Brexit and as foolish as a return to using imperial measurements too! - What's needed is greater union across Europe, global freedom of movement and an end to divisive nonsensical 'us' vs 'them' rhetoric... UK should join the Euro, much easier for business/travel... Roll on the day we've a global currency (digital currency is looking as though it could deliver this), and an end to the silly waste of time/effort/commission charges for currency trading. The sooner them politicians harking back to the 'good ole days' are ejected the better! Onwards and upwards for... The Times They Are A-Changin'!