Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/january2024

Duncb - if Ukraine had nuclear deterrent then Putin would not have been able to invade in the first instance. When I made that comment I should have elaborated... what I mean is European nations, and many other western nuclear powers have to cooperate and solve problems via diplomacy and when that happens it breaks down the borders between nations with different flags because cooperation and good trade relations become the greatest priority for both nations to prosper, with tariffs and any barriers therefore being just a nuisance and cost (therefore best to get rid of them!).

The wonderful thing about globalisation is eventually borders between nations will be broken down... because imposing wasteful and Inefficient charges/time delays upon a business wishing to trade goods/services between two different pieces of land, with different flags flown upon each, just acts as drag on otherwise exponential growth. Brexit is just the resurgent last few dying gasps by of those who want to try and turn back the clock and attempt to restore the long gone 'strong and sovereign empire'...

The days of hard borders and bitter disputes/wars betweem neighbouring nations are long over, Brexit will inevitibly fail.

"globalisation has decimated UK manufacturing" - What utter tripe, UK had veto over new EU rules/policy plus tariff-free trade and no customs checks for trade exports to other EU nations... Membership of the EU is precisely why the UK held onto and grew its high tech manufacturing e.g. Nissan/Airbus/JCB/INEOS/JaguarLR/Rolls-Royce. Labour will always deliver better growth rates because it distributes wealth better than Tory policy ever does which ensures sustainable economic growth endures. High time these unelected scammers be ousted from No10, let the grown ups take charge again and gradually things will improve.

Public Sector Net Borrowing figs for UK land tomorrow, could well be a trigger for some widespread drops?

Bailey: Britain is at “full employment”, the Bank expects it will only be “a very small recession”, "We think the economy is already showing distinct signs of an upturn." - Meanwhile back in the real world... record NHS waits (with huge negative impacts on the labour market), elevated inflation levels, no growth, insane house prices, high personal taxation levels and many broken public services like trains etc... they really are completely delusional.

Possibly shorters getting their positions lined up ahead of UK Public Sector Net Borrowing figures tomorrow morning? - The data tomorrow is the missing piece to complete the economic picture for UK PLC... sets the scene for the upcoming March Budget.

Based on the fact FTSE 100 + 250 are both down (20th Feb 2023-19th Feb 2024) by ~3.6% and ~4.6% respectively it seems perfectly reasonable to me... few things are more impressive than failing up!

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (21st Feb) - One to watch out for next week imo, as it's the missing piece to complete the economic picture for UK PLC and sets the scene for the upcoming March Budget.

Forgive my lack of knowledge on this delisting matter but... for those currently holding TUI stock on LSE might some opt to sell their stock and then just buy the shares on the Frankfurt exchange if they wish to stay invested, thereby avoiding potential for volatility, and a risk of there being a respectively poor price, were they to alternatively stay the distance to the 24th June?

Hardly surprising since Gov had played hardball holding back a lot of backdated pay deals... much of which delivered in two main batches at End Nov (NJC employed e.g. Council staff/teachers), and End Dec for many other public sector workers... Combined with the NI cut it amounts to a fairly hefty cash injection and could easily give false impression of some sort of bounce back emerging.

The credit agencies rate businesses/individuals on their ability to pay down/service their debt obligations... There isn't any doubt that TUI can service it's debts imo (especially now that debts are smaller, following inevitable revenue growth via inflation and the RI too)... Interpreting this credit rating upgrade as a 'buy signal' would in my view be a grave error. I say this because the primary issue unfolding over next 0-18months will rapidly shift; last year concerns were debt and dilution, in the next 6-18 months it'll be customer demand growth (or lack of it)... as consumers burdened by their mortgage/loan obligations wield the axe to discretionary/leisure spending in their droves... Travel was very resilient post pandemic as accumulated savings, triple lock and pent up demand unfurled with gusto... I don't see the pandemic bounce back lasting much beyond mid summer 2024.

Masaimara - if the genuinely company grows between now and 2029 then issuing those sort of volume of shares evenly (or linked to the growth rate even better) then it should have very little negative impact but... if the issuing of the new shares is front loaded to then taper off then that'd have a greater negative impact. All imo DYOR.

I'm invested in BT and I was previously invested in TUI, they're the boards I've posted on. - make of that what you will.

"NIESR point out that UK GDP per head remains lower than before the Covid-19 pandemic"

Quite an achievement to have 4-5yrs passing and yet a smaller economy... I wonder how indebted homeowners will service their very large mortgages as they begin losing their jobs?...

The natural next move from the Chancellor is to cut public services in a desperate attempt to cling on just that little bit longer... thereby locking in some more decline.

The other issue is there is still no dividend reward for hanging on... seems the board expects holders to remain devoutly loyal for Zero return.

Meanwhile over in the Department of Delusional Fantasies:

Hunt: "There are signs the economy is turning a corner"

Believe that and you'll believe anything lol

Sort of... originally UK was supposed to have been so strong it could have managed rates at 5.75%... yet it seems to have buckled under the weight of just 5.25%... and if by 'done what was expected of them' you mean that the plan was always to deliberately induce convulsions for the sick patient then yes I suppose the outcome is just that: a violently convulsing sick patient...

So where exactly does that leave UK PLC?... well it leaves us with a smaller economy, larger debts and high inflation, all symptomatic features of a failing state!

One really interesting part of the ONS summary of GDP data is this (quote lifted from section 2.):

"UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023. This follows an unrevised estimated fall of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Across Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 2023, we estimate that the UK economy contracted by a cumulative 0.5%. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2%."

One really interesting part of the ONS summary of GDP data is this (quote lifted from section 2.):

"UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023. This follows an unrevised estimated fall of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Across Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 2023, we estimate that the UK economy contracted by a cumulative 0.5%. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2%."