Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

A shy over 5 weeks until on 5th March the Full Year Results land:

Reminder on a couple of the trading update key points:

· China: Seamlessly built back volumes and continued to diversify into the retail channel, importantly the business is now cash generative and self-sustaining

The Group anticipates FY23 Group adjusted operating profit to be at least in line with the upper end of the range of market expectations2

2. Based on company compiled consensus ("Consensus") which includes; Citi, Goodbody, HSBC, Investec, Kepler, Numis and Peel Hunt. Adjusted operating profit Consensus for 2023 of £90.2m, with a range of £89.7m to £91.1m.

So in summary... we're looking for operating profits to land at £91.1m with anything above seeing SP perform very nicely indeed. In my opinion we're likely to hit £92m, and perhaps a shy more on top too! Reason being, management have been leading this business very well with sensible investment, good product design/marketing and making tough calls on driving cost efficiencies through this period of high inflation. I cannot see any obvious reasons for the results to fall flat at the last hurdle here.

Utter Codswallop... Demand for data services is absolutely soaring... FTTP rollout is going very well, with greater efficiency over copper and many more opportunities for upselling digital services add ons, it's a no brainer when it comes to ROI. The EE 5G rollout is also going well. It's v.easy to lay into BT and criticise but... it's getting the high priority stuff done at the minute and so long as that continues the revenues will pour in to pay off debts. This stock is way undervalued and that'll correct very nicely over these next 18months ahead esp. as Labour enter No.10 to tee up a workable growth strategy. BT is a crucial business that'll contribute to tangible CO2 savings too. Get in now whilst the SP is at these levels and the only thing you'll regret is not having bought more!

TheRiflemans - I think you'll find Bakkavor's rise will not stall because they produce good products which are affordable for price conscious customers. Bakkavor continues to make great progress on the efficiency/productivity front where other competitors have neglected to do so with as much attention. I'm long hold in this quality company, and whenever the SP dips a little I snap up some more shares!

Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/01990682/filing-history

Hays published their latest set of accounts yesterday, very good results indeed.

Https://news.sky.com/story/surprise-increase-in-inflation-to-4-latest-figures-show-13049607

I did foretell that "inflation will be elevated from the tax giveaways + delayed backpay."

Nice work on getting out when you could do for profit seen_it_done_it - for what it's worth I still believe TUI is destined to do very well indeed and the current SP does not reflect it's true worth. I think by the 2024 year end it'll nearly touch £9.

I first bought into TUI (LSE) post consolidation though pre-RI (back around early March 2023) ... My goal being to utilise profits and my original investment towards our house deposit... So after the 9 month journey I sold my lot on the morning of 2nd Jan, the very day we received a shock eviction notice (yey Happy New Year joy)... Strangely, Karma seems to have done me a service for I was into TUI to the tune of a £6k total investment (I'd bought full entitlement in RI and went on buying further tranches to average down whenever SP dipped; most I'd payed for a tranche was 575p with majority being sub 512p and one as low as 389p). I banked nearly £600 profit mid morning on 2nd Jan, not a bad result in 9 months... twice the amount a decent savings account would have paid out and in 3 months less time than staying the distance of a 1yr rate fix too. I've some smaller investments elsewhere but my biggest holding, by far, was TUI... so now onwards to the next rental and 'what to do next to get my deposit', is what I'm currently pondering! We'll get there - Happy trading and good luck all!

Stupmy, I think your synopsis of where the SP is heading is pretty much on point. Though I see the SP dipping a bit below the £5 mark and even the RI... perhaps to as low as 4.70-80p... anything below there will trigger some healthy speculative buying for long positions and if it reaches those prices I might consider a rebuy (though no buys as large as my prior purchases. I don't think we'll see a rally now until March time when UK opens the stimulus taps with budget giveaways... especially with context of continued global volatility

Hey Mike, with the soaring revenue growth and continued travel boom TUI could have easily found itself migrating from the FTSE 250 up into the FTSE 100 - Yes, many articles in recent years critiquing FTSE and it's lack of global competitiveness but... once the grown ups take political control of Downing Street and implement a viable plan for growth and stronger trade with the EU it'll bring an end to the many issues of economic mismanagement which have been prevalent and painful under the illustrious current gov.

Whilst I sold out for profit on 2nd Jan I'm inclined to agree with you there seen_it_done_it - The political argument for delisting whilst being completely understandable given brexit nonetheless makes little sense invery long term. That's because it just serves to alienate many PI's, who currently enjoy buying in £ sterling without lots of faff and small additional charges like currency conversion. Roll on the day UK joins the EU and Euro I say! In the meantime I'm relieved I sold out on the 2nd (albeit due to personal circs and nothing to do with TUI or the market). I would like to say I'll soon be buying back in but I'm now looking elsewhere for value, of which there's lots imo. Remember... lots of backdated pay has landed in workers pockets and this will be furiously being spent, with some using it to clear down a little debt too... add into the mix looming tax cuts here in UK and it's going to be a buoyant spring ahead with inflation proving surprisingly stubborn... No rate cut at the BoE until May I reckon.

My guess is one of Blackrock or UBS made some big sales on the global turbulence. Whole market is a sea of red today so not all that surprising really. Yesterday morning I made the decision to sell my entire holding of TUI for around 626-628p for a healthy profit. I do fundamentally believe TUI will see just short of £8 in the not too distant future and I only sold out because of short term cash flow needs which I hope to resolve before it begins flying upwards in the coming weeks/months ahead.

"Consumers also saved for getaways, with spending on trips booked via travel agents up by 10.4%, while airlines enjoyed a 30.8% surge."

Source:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/29/britons-cut-back-on-dining-out-and-buying-clothes-barclays-reveals

Another aspect to bear in mind (if you're contemplating taking long positions in BT) is any incoming Gov will be seeking economic growth as its top priority... BT and other telecom providers are the best gateway to achieve such an aim because a billion invested into telecoms networks will deliver more efficiency and productivity gains when compared to the alternatives of spending a billion anywhere else!

I meant to have also added that the 0.45% AMC is capped at £45 annually anyway.

Demand for telecoms data services is massive. BT has a spectacular year ahead! Buy now whilst you still can at these low SP's as we'll not be down at these low levels for much longer now... £1.60-65p very soon👍

The 0.45% AMC is an easy one to avoid... I buy shares direct with the fund and share account as i dint really need the ISA wrapper... depends on if you're seeking out the benefits of the ISA or not.

The info Mike has left out is that many platforms also charge foreign exchange fees on top of the usual commission or trade fee. For example... I trade with Hargreaves Lansdown and they list their charges in a table towardes the end of the info on this webpage:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-dealing/overseas-share-dealing-service

The extra hassle would inevitably put a proportion of brits off from making investments into TUI on the German market because there will be some who are only comfortable with buying investments on the FTSE with shares priced in £ sterling.

Brilliant news, glad to hear that's worked out well for you! You can treat yourself to a TUI holiday & enjoy watching the SP rising further up on this 'post covid bounceback' too!

Correct, you have to be holding the shares at close of business today to be eligible for the interim dividend payment 🎅 - lots of reasons for positive moves on BT SP these coming months ahead!

Tax giveaways on the horizon, backpay landing for workers after long delayed pay deals being agreed, BoE interest rate cuts in March/May... it's going to be a bumper year for the travel sector and especially so with oil prices back in a sensible range (currently ~$80). It seems everyone I speak to is busy booking up their holidays at the minute!