Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Ouchie!:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/latest

Ouchie!:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/latest

Badger the rate cuts will not immediately put more money into people's pockets because many will be on fixed terms for either their loan or mortgage borrowings, so there will be a long lag effect especially since BoE will only cut rates slowly (whereas they went up fairly sharply).

Except by next year the pain of these elevated interest rates will have encircled a far greater number of sufferers... potentially just as the volatility from the delisting subsides there may well be a small crisis caused by repossessions/defaults/increasing unemployment, and another round of consumer cutbacks will have commenced too.

I did precisely that, albeit I managed a reasonable profit (a hairbreadth away from 10%) when I sold on 2nd Jan... since then I've wanted to buy back in with a smaller stake but I just don't see a positive direction in these immediate weeks ahead. I was shocked to read Stupmys forecast for the SP, I'd thought this could drop down to lows of 480p ish at the most but then again I didn't think holders would have been supportive of delisting from the FTSE either! It's just a bad time to alienate any buyers of stock imo. Mind you clearly it's been a popular decision to delist! Will it work out well if we could fast forward a decade? Who knows?...

Pokerchips... "do people want their kids school mended, their local pot holes filled, their hospital waiting list reduced ....and all the other things that irritate people right now"

They won't be getting them by voting Tory lol!

I could not agree more with you on "investing in the country is so important right now" and yes, Hunt is far more rational but... still beholden to his wider party.

Pokerchips... "Hunt will help business and Investment before lowering personal taxes in March".

It's a pre-election budget... Do you really think Hunt will help business more than he will PAYE & families? - Yes, Hunt is a tool though at least he's an improvement on DisasterTruss & sidekick Kamikwasi.

Clued... it's the revisions where things are also really interesting... because ONS is rushes the data out (jan figs but published today) when they crunch the numbers they frequently make errors and end up having to revise the figures several months later down the line. I think we'll see a small upward revision for Jan inflation.

That should have said core for the 5.1% and not CPI.

Hunt out celebrating the 4% inflation rate as though that's a good thing! Moronic, esp. With CPI still lagging way up at 5.1% which is two and a half times the 2% target! Particularly mad because of the accumulated inflation since the period when elevated inflation first began. Tax giveaways in March budget will support inflation some more yet so BoE definitely can't begin cutting until at least May. Whilst markets might receive the 4% announced today a little better than expected... Once traders have mulled things over I'd expect the sell-off to resume for a bit.

If inflation lands at 4.3% you may find buying opportunity at 97p, perhaps?

Not stimulus for consumers avocet, stimulus to support the gilts market, or for businesses (temp floor underneath should an aggressive sell off unfold).

"buying opp for all stocks"... or, perhaps better holding off until even more pain is felt?.. I don't think February is going to see an imminent buying rally, there could even be a need for ECB and/or BoE to step in and provide stimulus if the selloff accelerates?

Down we go... frustrating, as a holder of BT, but I think we're headed below £1 before today closes out.

Ouch! Definitely trouble ahead: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk

True Avocet however, whilst I did call that out a tad too early the emerging data is not looking good... UK already in shallow recession, with unemployment now rising on the back of reduced vacancies... BoE will not be able to offer any support for some months yet, May is earliest opportunity for trimming the base rate, and that won't have an immediate positive effect... so we're in for a tricky summer whereby the chancellor dishes out some giveaways in a desperate attempt to prevent the whole house of cards from caving in... imo UK consumers will press ahead with their 2024 bookings but may make significant cuts to 2025 holiday bookings as the cumulative impact of high bills, high loan and mortgage rates plus exhausted savings pots begins to join forces...

I did warn you all about bears...

The only surprise landing imminently will be them elevated inflation figs out tomorrow! Hungry Bears will be out in force!

I think we could be about to witness some hungry bears coming out... 20% falls across the global piste perhaps, on the back of stubborn inflation, fears of slow interest rate cuts (no cut in UK rate until at least May) and on global instability too...

Inflation figs out tomorrow... looks bound to be bad news with stubbornly high inflation and I think the shorters will send this right back down perhaps close to £5 in the coming days ahead