Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Hi Mike... PI's own 45.1% of TUI which is not a small amount. As for UBS, recent RNS shows they recently reduced their holdings... the fact is that delisting from the FTSE will mean its more paperwork for Brits to make private investments into TUI and they'd need to take into account currency calculations too. Many appreciate simplicity when making their investments so it's just a bad idea to make things more complicated. It's also true that investors like to spend with companies they're invested with... something to bear in mind when you make your vote!

Completely disagree Mike, TUI benefits from its shares being available on London Stock Exchange for brits to easily buy on returning from a fantastic holiday... if TUI wants to maintain strong long term investment from private investors it makes sense to continue the LSE listing on the FTSE 250 (potentially back on FTSE 100 as pandemic lockdowns become a ever more distant memory). Delisting from the FTSE might make a political statement in the short term but it will just result in brits tilting more towards companies like Jet2 if TUI were to delist from the FTSE. It'll be a big mistake for TUI to delist.

Similarly, Sunak + Economic growth go together like oil and water... If only he'd spent the £400m on Fibre for the masses instead of on gifts for the Rwandan Gov - we are where we are though! Mind you soon Reeves + Starmer will get the keys to sort out the mess and BT will soar :-)

Lots of backpay landing in workers pockets, tax + interest rate cuts this spring... Despite gloomy headlines today it's clear 2024 is going to be a busy one! Stocks are well positioned to soar, as those who began buying 1yr bonds and fixed savings a year ago (on the better rates) look for a new home for their money, once the year term comes to an end! Lots of spending ahead, inflation will be elevated from the tax giveaways + delayed backpay. Company revenues will be massive!

Dividend Max is another: https://www.dividendmax.com/

Guardian reporting "UK retailers report weak December sales as cost of living squeeze bites"... Many laying blame for weak sales solely on Cost of Living... However, I happen to think there's lots more going on than meets the eye here - could the buying up of endless stuff have gone out of fashion in a big way? Yes, people do still want nice stuff, just a lot less volume than in past decades gone by... people appear to value going out/activities/holidays as being far more important when compared to retail therapy (both online retail and brick + mortar). In my opinion there will be a lot more excitement/discussions and booking of holidays for 2024 taking place than there will be discussions about what shiny item is next on the shopping list! We're in for an absolutely cracking 2024! Record setting + memory making!

They'll be heading back upwards a smidge late Jan when the BoE does another hold on rates.

Yes, agree there Mas about seeing more positive results (nice sentiment on the Christmas message too!)... speaking of which... has anyone scenario forecasted what Q1 results could end up looking like? e.g. if winter trading was either amazing, good, average or poor? Looking over Crystal Ski's offerings it's clear many of the mid-upper market holidays are very booked up with very little left available for Jan to beginning of March... I haven't yet browsed to check out the winter sun offerings though.

Masaimara - yes, definitely fears holding the TUI SP back... what I would say is the latest results demonstrated revenue growth from ~16bn to ~20bn (+4) and TUI reckon +25% for next Fin YR ahead I.e. from 20bn to ~25bn (+5)... so by time we reach those kinds of revenues the ~2bn debt really begins to get rather small and that's before we even account for paying some of that down in the meantime with each quarter which passes.

Why we shouldn't be worried about debt:

"In the long-term, the United Kingdom Money Supply M2 is projected to trend around 3182000.00 GBP Million in 2024 and 3205000.00 GBP Million in 2025" - Notice how the second number is higher than the first... This is important because for those investors buying up bonds they will come to feel the unpleasant effects of inflation down the line, particularly acute for any investors getting low returns on their bonds (high demand for bonds lowers the rates paid). This nicely demonstrates why it's a great time to buy up stocks!

As doing so protects you from inflation because as the company coffers swell with all that revenue from sales (because demand is insatiable with many having cash in their hands) they share out the rewards... coincidently it's also why many should be much less worried about debts and far more worried about the value of each coin/note instead.

Sources:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/money-supply-m2

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1409338/uk-banking-total-money-supply-m2

Just one more point on inflation if I may?!:

"In the long-term, the United Kingdom Money Supply M2 is projected to trend around 3182000.00 GBP Million in 2024 and 3205000.00 GBP Million in 2025" - Notice how the second number is higher than the first... This is important because for those investors buying up bonds they will come to feel the unpleasant effects of inflation down the line, particularly acute for any investors getting low returns on their bonds (high demand for bonds lowers the rates paid). This nicely demonstrates why it's a great time to buy up stocks! As doing so protects you from inflation because as the company coffers swell with all that revenue from sales (because demand is insatiable with many having cash in their hands) they share out the rewards... coincidently it's also why many should be much less worried about debts and far more worried about the value of each coin/note.

Sources:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/money-supply-m2

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1409338/uk-banking-total-money-supply-m2

Masaimara - Whilst your views align to prevailing thoughts held by many others across the globe I nonetheless must disagree. It's not as simple as 'debt is bad' and that's because all debts are not equal... QE pumped billions, trillions even into the whole global economy, as you know, and many businesses rightly loaded themselves up with this cheap debt on the low interest rates. However... much of the pumped in cash will take many more years yet to fully work its way through the system. What we're currently seeing is the inflationary effects of that QE (topped up to even higher levels through Covid times).

Now the prevailing narrative is that indebted companies will be spectacularly crushed by the weight of higher interest rates, and by cuts to consumer spending.. which would of course be true (had the inflation been caused by demand based inflation - as that demand would implode) but... it was not caused by increased demand and in fact lack of demand is precisely what QE was designed to prop up!.. So then what is likely to happen instead? Well... as consumers take action to sharply cut back they'll very rapidly accumulate cash again... thereby ensuring demand does not in fact collapse because people will feel wealthier than they had feared... i.e. they'll start to save but then realise their savings get eroded by inflation (giving a motivator to pivot back towards spending pretty sharp ish... i.e. this is why I keep saying we're in times where inflation will remain elevated for a long while yet, and the crash everyone keeps on jabbering on about well... it just will not arrive because the definition of inflation is to grow the supply of cash!

SOM - You'll want to top up before SP rises up to £1.60-65p ;-) - the bull run is on the way!

Absolutely BigTime and Fleccy can tell you all about divi-reinvestment... for me though, I prefer taking divi winnings and spending it before inflation scoffs it!

UK inflation slows more than expected to 3.9% - should give SP a boost for it to rocket up nicely! 🚀 - Expecting Dec through until Mar inflation figs to either show an upward blip or display strong resistance against continuing to fall towards 2% target because lots of delayed backpay landing, tax giveaways + other winter stimulous payments too.

US and Asia markets both closed up! The festive joy should finally spread to the FTSE markets today! 🎅

US and Asia markets both closed up! Festive joy should finally spread to FTSE markets today! 🎅

What I find confusing is people are worried about BT total debt of £19 billion with pension deficit (incl. lease liabilities, just an ongoing cost really) but yet.... the same people seem delighted to buy UK bonds with UK Gov being nearly £3 trillion in the red (not to mention bonds paying miserly ~4.9%, with inflation having neutralised gains via erosion of purchasing power)... such strange times!

I reckon we're going to see a big move up tomorrow, on the latest UK inflation figs together with some US, German +EU data landing too.

Inflation data out tomorrow!