Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

UK GDP Figs released by ONS on Fri 12th... something to 'look forward to'?.. Sadly, I think not and I feel we're going to see USA sprint ahead this summer ahead with UK increasingly feeling the pain. Property market is looking especially vulnerable with advertised asking prices completely out of touch with fiscal reality.

Well... I did foretell.. previously I said:

"Makes UK look weak and flaccid. USA is back in business, growing and the US Dollar is only going to build in strength throughout this year ahead."

My wife is currently invested in SSPG, she's considered buying more stock at these low prices... She pointed out SSPG has made very big purchases/spend/new debt on investing in rapid growth (during what we know is a period of raised rates and possibly soon falling inflation too). Whilst she's definitely not selling her current stake it's nonetheless a concern of hers and is perhaps holding her back from buying more SSPG shares... I guess I'm saying she's currently a little bit cautious on this stock and perhaps shorters are banking on others being so too?

Taxation here in UK has grown because there's no growth, so the only way the nation avoids insolvency is via ratcheting up taxation.

"It's only a matter of time before QE starts again-" - I just don't agree with this - I respect your opinion but... I think USA is now at last making sound progress. On the back of the growth it'll become possible for the treasury to notch taxation upwards a little and capitalise to reduce the debt burden.

Pokerchips... I think shorters will end up closing out their positions because demand for digital data services, FTTP and 5G is immense and will only exponentially grow. BT's delivering a sound rollout of infrastructure and the next Government has to ensure investment in telecoms continues because it's the key to delivery of economic growth. the days of low BT Share Prices will soon be over.

"jobs most of which are part time is absolutely rubbish."...

Worth noting the 300,000 additional jobs land cumulatively upon the back of month after month, after month, of more US jobs creation. There's not been a jobs contraction in USA for a long ole while.

Meanwhile... have you seen the surge in volume of zero hr contract gig economy work and foodbank reliance over here in UK?... The few things growing in UK are numbers of cases of scurvy, rickets, queues for NHS treatment and subscribers to streaming/data services...

New homes - Bellway says on track for 31 per cent fewer homes being built this year (from previous). Look elswhere including CPI it's the same cuts, cuts, cuts - meanwhile costs and debt up.

USA can service its debt via the strong growth being delivered. That's the key difference here because there is no growth here for UK economy and increasingly that means it's unable to service the debt mountain.

I've topped up on the release of the US jobs data - I see BT as a defensive stock for the year ahead and this builds on my existing stake in BT. This summer I see BT hitting 165p, a view I've held for a while now and I expect the next round of BT results to deliver. I had been eyeing up other stocks for my latest tranche but... I've decided not to diversify and to just grow my BT position. I think UK economy is set to struggle and BT will be surprisingly resilient amongst the carnage.

As I'd been saying... Incredible strength from USA economy... One third more jobs created than expected:

"US economy created 303,000 new jobs in March far more than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 3.8%. - Analysts had expected 200,000 new jobs, and the jobless rate to stay at 3.9%. - At the same time, growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 4.1% from 4.3%, in line with expectations."

Makes UK look weak and flaccid. USA is back in business, growing and the US Dollar is only going to build in strength throughout this year ahead. As for CPI... I've opted not to invest. Instead I've gone defensive with another stake in BT, building upon on my existing stake in BT... I saw potential in CPI but more and more it just looks like potential for losses whereas everyone needs BT telecoms plus the divi reward for BT too.

Possibly too early for a buy... When USA opens in ~1hr there could yet be further market wide drops... difficult/tricky though as equally there could be a rally on the back of the sizable drop yesterday too.

Definitely not clueless, their comms is always very deliberate... they're sending those mixed messages to lead the many into assuming cuts will come sooner i.e. akin to the 'unreliable boyfriend' analogy which Mark Carney adopted while Govner of BoE. Fed is simultaneously tying to keep both the dollar and stocks down, to support USA exports to rest of the world and prevent a rush by other countries and their foreign investors from embarking on a buying spree of US dollars. USA knows it's back in business but it wants to downplay its strength right now.

The comments look as though the Fed is trying to curb the upward momentum of USA stocks... I reckon USA economy is very strong and the downward drop will not last... USA is going to steam ahead and part ways with the slower moving UK and EU... Fed is trying to prevent the Dollar from appreciating too much and too quickly (as they're less able to cut rates to cool the dollar strength) but the inevitable will happen.

ONS UK GDP, economic commentary, balance of payments and public sector finance data: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/octobertodecember2023 and https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/quarterlyeconomiccommentary/octobertodecember2023

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/balanceofpayments/octobertodecember2023

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/february2024

Plus recently released House price data (Nationwide + Halifax)

PMI is a glorified survey i.e. akin to an opinion poll. A useful indicator but... it's not hard economic data - a bit like asking estate agents their opinion of the housing market, insightful but they equally may have motive to paint a rosier picture when compared to the real transactional results which land. In terms of how the UK economic landscape relates to Capita... well those advocating that Gov can't cut much more and therefore Capita is safe are plainly wrong, if Gov struggles to finance and the markets demand cuts then cuts will be made, even difficult ones.

Pretty clear UK is in a sorry state of affairs... Housing market has ample dilapidated/neglected stock at insanely high prices as those denying the new financial reality still stubbornly cling on to yesterdays dreams of ever growing real estate prices... even articles acknowledging recent dips proceed to contradict within the very same article by adding something along the lines of "it's doubtful prices will fall much further"... or "rate cuts later in the year will support prices from any further drops"...

The armageddon cooked up within the commercial real estate landscape is at worst entirely glossed over or at best barely given a mention.

The now smaller UK economy will seriously struggle to cope with what will soon be an almost £3trillion debt heap, particularly as growing unemployment and mortgage defaults begin to land. Attempts by BoE to cut rates will be thwarted by the risk of inflation for imported products via £weakness...

It's going to get ugly as the summer comes to a close.

Increasingly USA doesn't look as though it needs to trim rates much at all... Though bad for voters, due to higher gas prices at the pumps, because USA is now the world's biggest oil producer it's treasury coffers can draw in gigantic windfalls from a return to $90+ oil prices... more broadly the whole USA economy is looking rather strong. Should things stay that way the dollar will dominate.

Trick there is to throw the Alexa out too, preferably along with the remaining landline too ;-)

Simples way to eliminate the market for analogue... switch it off haha!

Does anyone still have a landline? We got rid of the landline in 2009! 15yrs without an annoying landline phone going off at random times of the day & annoying everyone in the whole house with the ringing!

Why not switch off all copper wires and therefore their connected landline telephones and instead hand out many hundreds of thousands or a few million free refurbished PAYG mobiles as like for like replacements?