Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Careful you don't shout about that on the BT chat to Mandy... they can tell you all about the workings of the socialist CWU!

The one area I think will prove super safe and unsurprisingly robust as the UK economy sinks to ever lower depths is people's determination to maintain their facebook/netflix/NOW/sports etc connections - this is best demonstrated by flicking the fuse off for the whole house and observing the immediate following reaction displayed by your fellow householders ;-)

I happen to think BT's service offerings are decent value too - I mean what can you buy for circa £20-40 nowadays?.. - People like to have a good ole complain but for the majority of homes, businesses + individuals BT's doing a decent job these days. Compared to water/trains/public transport and other backbone services BT is getting unjustified critique imo - I recall well when BT took over EE and I was very worried about slippage of standards from when Orange previously established EE as they were market leads on service & quality... but my scepticism/cynicism was unwarranted and BT have done far better than I ever expected.

I've been adding to my stake too Trenners - I'm not so certain a hefty divi cut will occur, a trimming perhaps but I think BT can afford to maintain fairly close to current levels - supported by the CPI+3.9 price hikes and sustained demand for data, telecom + mobile services. BT got ahead of the curve when it delivered cuts to the office real estate and the FTTP & 5G rollouts continue at pace. BT is a solid defensive stock imo.

UK GDP figs release by ONS tomorrow to look forward to as well...

Putin could soon be planning expansion into Bulgaria too?

Jokes aside... The Office business model is dead as a dodo... businesses opening up grand new office real estate on a big scale with fanfare is going to be heading for serious trouble down the line.

Lol - completely agree Trisor. Yey! Lets open up new office commuting initiatives and competitions for the highest number of water cooler gatherings over in South Africa because it's working out so well in the rest of the developed world!

GDP per head is going down because that is what happens when you install trade barriers on goods moving to and from your closest neighbours and largest trading partner. i.e. Import of cheap labour is required because in absence of growth in trade volumes you have to find a way to operate the existing and shrinking trade taking place at lower costs.

Tomorrow's GDP figs may provide support, if early estimated data released by ONS is on the favourable side (figs get revised down the line though: MoM always more volatile even post revision whereas quarterly changes smooth out the natural statistical variance). Though I do not think UK GDP is doing well, if i'm correct then early data tomorrow will be more bad news and it could be deep in the red by COP tomorrow.

Trisor... interesting info on that Belfast office sell off - I wonder what that stranded asset will eventually fetch? Shame CPI are stuck renting it until the 2026 break clause (I imagine CPI will take the option to exit). "Beacon House represents an excellent investment opportunity"... more like an investment liability! The death of office working means there are many more debt right downs yet to come and they can't come soon enough imo! Get them offices converted into housing I say!

BoE policymaker says UK interest rate cuts should be ‘a way off’ - attempt using rhetoric to put a floor underneath the blatantly falling £ and what will be ongoing £ weakness for the foreseeable future ahead.

Previously, I'd though BoE would first cut in May and I'm sure they'll try, for as long as possible, to fight US$ strength... at what cost to business & homeowners though, before they bow out to the inevitable?...

Yes, BT could well trim divi but it'll continue growing as demand for telecoms and data is monstrous and traders will seek out safer equities. Imo weak UK economy is heading for troubled waters, companies no longer able to rely on record revenues flowing into their coffers (mostly servicing their large debts) on the high tides of inflation during these past years. If UK embarks on keeping pace or closely following USA it'll be a big error in Monetary Policy imo.

Correct, I went with buying another tranche of BT shares. Still keeping an eye on where CPI moves though and the option is still available for me to take a stake albeit it's looking increasingly unlikely I'll be minded to do so. I'll be looking at where Friday's GDP figs suggest the macro is heading.

Trisor... one potential route out could be for CPI to merge with another business, perhaps one with expertise selling to private sector. I did think the comment someone made about the over reliance on Gov contracting i.e. calling for diversification would be a wise move, possibly a merger could be a good method to achieve that.

Trisor... I guess i'd be concerned CPI were to again fall short at the next set of results and if concurrently BoE holds rates high & gilts remain elevated i.e. debt refinancing options are limited...

I think the macroeconomics are highly relevant for CPI because there's significant reliance on Gov contracts which I suppose I am saying the UK economy weakness is a potential significant threat, unwise to underestimate this imo... If UK properly hits the buffers (in contrast to a booming USA & strong dollar) there will be spending cuts to immediately follow and I think CPI could struggle if that occurs... esp given the debt context.

Trisor... Yep I know the differences between them. What I'm saying is if the BoE cuts rates then the falling inflation will quickly become real deflation and I think parts of UK economy are already in deflation e.g. Commercial and residential property

With regard to deflation question Trisor... I mean that UK inflation is now rapidly falling because it was initially caused by brexit/ukraine/covid i.e. prices to import shot upwards, plus a lack of labour supply (due to long term sickness spikes and EU citizens leaving) meant pay packets had to rise...

Response was BoE rate hikes, to support the £ plus import of more cheap labour from rest of the world (the dirty secret Tories don't want public to know... i.e. they want more immigration of cheap labour supply as UK birth rate's far too low to solve workforce shortage issues)...

So now UK has falling inflation (as high rates have slowed demand) but if dollar rises then inflation will resume (many imported products priced in dollars). Cutting rates now will cause £ to fall and inflation to return. Whereas leave the rates high and the demand will keep on falling as businesses and households keep on cutting.

UK Gilts up 11bps too..... seemingly bondholders suddenly now betting BoE will struggle to make rate cuts to support UK economy because else it'll trigger £ to fall further against to $ as cutting would cause significant inflation to resume. BoE is going to really struggle to grapple with this conundrum... cut rates to support business and home but see inflation soar again? Or hold and watch on as UK businesses and homeowners feel yet more pain.

As for what this could mean for CPI... Well deflation tends to inspire those with a lack of economic understanding to demand aggressive spending cuts... they'll likely claim the 'sick patient is to be cured with blood letting'...