Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Likewise thanks for responding and as for my switch from bearish to bullish and back again... I've been carefully examiningstatutory data releases and some key business results too and what I consistently find it they don't match up to press hype about 'UK economic strength'... fundamentally that's why I've believed UK is headed for troubled waters... because the data says that's where its heading (albeit with lag as releases by ONS etc are always for past months). On the Israel/Gaza/middle East... I don't comment on it because I literally have not a clue about the situation there and how it impacts travel industry. Obviously, like many others, I can see correlation between notable events and SP making moves rapidly afterwards but I just don't have any knowledge about it all apart from reading headlines. Whereas on the economic data releases I'm way more familiar interrogating the data being output.

BT shall prove a safe stock in these turbulent time... I think we're on the cusp of a big move upwards imo. I think we'll be seeing 114p+ shortly.

Much talk on SP prices etc... fundamentally though, to benefit a simple layman here, what are the positives for CPI right now?

I imagine today's rapid fall is due to the UBS down rating?... SSPG has expanded significantly (not without risk). Here I see the elevated inflation supporting ongoing significant revenue generation but what this will mean longer term is a little less clear.

Mike your memory seems to be failing you... as you know I previously accumulated a significant TUI holding, I purchased first trance post consolidation/pre-RI in Apr 2023, buying many other tranches throughout summer/autumn 2023. I sold the lot for about 10% profit on 2nd Jan 24... my posts are my opinions, of where I see Tui SP heading at the time I post, and consistently I observe your comments excessively ramping Tui stock. You have seen me make bullish comments on travel sector, and on TUI too but I feel I tend to do so with some realism in mind (factoring in increasingly terrible state of UK economy, from which TUI is not immune to negative fall out this causes).

Anyway, as I've said before this is a discussion board for opinions (apparently unless those opinions disagree with your view point?)

I continue to like Tui as a business, and perhaps I shall buy back in at some point. A point for clarity: I've always had respect for people who are invested in Tui... remember when a member on this forum mentioned a scammer had robbed them of near to 100k? I was v.quick to post, to wish them well with getting their money back. It's slanderous to accuse me of disrespectful posting here, just because my opinion differs at a point in time to yours. On too many occasions you've made underhand comments, capitalised to shout & belittle perhaps? Whilst I've not called it out previously, I'll say now that when you do so it undermines an opinion you convey within the same post (validated in evidence, or not).

"550p looks a mile away. Onwards." - really..... it looks about 10-12p away to me.

I think it'll drop more this afternoon as the makers take it down a little below 5.50p

Doubt it will be a better day, as although TUI is delisting to Frankfurt its still heavily reliant on UK package holiday sales and UK PLC is clearly now very sick indeed...

£ rising this morning is a warning sign of the carnage ahead, yes high rates defend/support the currency and help with keeping import costs down but... if BoE holds off from rate cuts right through until November the pain racking up for Businesses, debtors and mortgage holders will be savage. Unemployment looks bound to accumulate significantly on the back of BoE's futile attempt to defend against dollar strength and do battle with the inflation deamons...

BoE is stuck though, it cannot solve all the problems that come with the political choices UK Gov has made to damage trade, drive up costs and for the systemic under investment over more than a decade.

For Tui the attempt to cut & run to Frankfurt fails to ignore the blatant underlying issue... which is UK and EU are as co-dependent as siamese twins.

Hi broomtree... I purchased another tranche of BT recently for about 104p as I see it as being defensive... Right now for me CPI looks vulnerable to unexpected cutbacks, as terrible performance of UK PLC precipitates... constant press defence of 'robust UK economy' increasingly looks delusional, as its true condition is gradually being revealed with emerging data. The legacy the next Gov inherits will be worse than anyone envisages imo.

Problem with rate cut is BoE is stuck with a soaring dollar, so a cut will surely be small and therefore the benefit miniscule and with a fair lag it provides support too.

The next bounce will be a big one perhaps but... so too will the drop which will surely shortly after follow it?

I did warn of UK weakness and today's unemployment news did not surprise me. Amazes me how the latest gdp update was a 0.1% MoM rise... will it be revised downwards? It's hammer 🔨 time for property sector too... these nonsense articles being pumped out about the strong residential sector in boom are utter nonsense, browsing the market these past months I've seen much of the stock for sale being well overvalued and sellers significantly dropping prices... more of that to come I think and commercial estate is in major crisis.

I did warn y'all, been in meetings all day so only just saw stocks and TUI price. The unemployment figs and weak economy has not come as a surprise to me and presumably that's why the SP dropped today?

Small trim - albeit no negative fallout for BT SP, as gilts having trimmed over last 6 months BT will remain a sound investment option.

"government has killed off any divi's now for PI's"...

Bit odd an extreme reaction imo... tax on divis isn't very high and is only paid when income is received anyway.

Just to further clarify, we both use HL fund & share (other companies and setups are available!).

Hi fleccy, yep you sussed why... it is because so far mine and my wife's investments have been relatively small with income + capital gains falling within the 22-23 & 23-24 allowances.

Naturally its early days for this tax year, and allowances have been reduced, therefore if we were to have lucky windfalls this may generate some tax owed. Conversely though, if my wife and I had ISA'S with our gains within the thresholds then potentially we could have paid admin charges etc for no tax advantage whatsoever. I suppose our thoughts are that if we receive an unexpected large windfall and the taxperson takes a little slice then that's kinda okay by us... rather it that way than paying annual admin fees to a business for little benefit to us or the taxperson either!

Just mine and my wife's personal opinion really. Definitely not a recommendation for anyone here to alter their approach to either utilise, or not utilise, their ISA allowance.

ISA's receive much coverage & interest from general public (anything with a tax free label stuck onto it will always tend to) but... the more I learn about stock markets the more I see ISA's as a nuisance, esp the drip of fees siphoned off to a faceless business year on year... For me personally, after weighing pro's v cons, I'm currently preferring direct investing, even though I am doing so with amounts which could fit within an ISA wrapper... Totally recognise that many would completely disagree and they enjoy what the ISA wrapper offers them.

Biskit - the language is deliberately not printed in 'plain English' because that way the investment industry can push laypersons into being hands off investors and therefore forever piping a proportion of 'their investment gains' into the pockets of fund managers and their staffers who get to drive around in fancy cars, frequent them exclusive clubs with their supply of marching powder in hand, and jet the globe of luxury breaks.

IMO this looks to me as though Glg are trying to take the sp down on the recent Macro news and scare some PI's into making some irrational sells...