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P.s. you can **** them all you like and they are a royal pain but those shorts are not daft and Astaris is a fair jump up.
Looking at their record, they don't short often but seem to have done well on Hurricane a couple years ago.
Just be carefull!
As I say. Good luck. Me selling means nowt to you.
Have a laugh on my behalf when the price proves me wrong.
I've bottled it. Taken a hit this morning and sold.
Not the end of the world but still too many red flags and the risk is just too high.
Honestly, be careful folks. Bond price was what finally convinced me. Shorts increasing not osing, big debt versus earnings and market cap. Limited assets etc.
Kicking myself big time!
They may have won that contract, but Carillion had quite a few contracts when they finally went pop. And that bond price tells me the big boys expect an implosion by the 2026 date on them.
Good luck. I will continue to watch from the sides and hope you all get a laugh at me when it rebounds heavily on a flow of good news and hopefully this is all some elaborate ploy to make the new CEO look good down the line.
Jambo, i'm no expert and haven't gone digging to abswer some of my own questions.
But as I read it, those buying the bonds ser to much risk to buy with a 50%+ upside in three years. Doesn't appear a good sign to me!
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg7052taf87-petrofac-ltd-9-75-21-26
Well, i don't know where to buy them as you need to buy a min of 200k. Was not sure if that was 200k shares or £.
Either way. 66p and you would get £1 in 2026 + interest payments. I think. Never bought anything but an NS&I savings bond! Lol
What is worrying me is that bond price. If there was no risk here, surely they'd be getting snapped up at 66p?!
Arghh....what have I donr?! Should I run for the hills with a loss or HODL?!
Crack me up when I constantly hear this line about thd yabks waking up. It barely ever happens and when it does, it is usually on other news. Bearing in mind these are global 24 hour operations these days.
And as for director buys lol
The liquidity had been worrying me.
This better be the last of it! More bad news with or before results and that's me locked.
Was hoping this would bounce in time to give me cash to put back across to WG if they dropped on rejecting their offer.
Looks like that might not happen unless I sell at a loss here or some miracle happens between now and then.
Bloody nora!
Why, why did I not wait?! I was telling myself to wait for results but I buckled and went in heavy.
Here we go again with this golden drip of pish! More stress. Do I HODL?!
I don't think Worley could. Not in Uk at least. The UK bit of that is the Old AMEC UK arm is it not? And the only reason not already part of Wood is that they were stopped from merging by UK gov chaps.
Ha. Have heard that line before.
I have been selling all the way up and bought back a couple of times. I've definitely made more than the 10% I'd lose by selling if it goes through.
Have already decided my reentry point(s) if it gets there before or after an announcement.
Likewise LWHL.
I've done well here and the risk of no deal not worth the extra 10% ish.
Now watch a second bidder be announced lol
Very good points indeed.
But that is just the wind farms.
It is only a fraction of the energy transition. O&G needs to decarbonise their own operations. We still need to provide fuel for aviation, industry, marine vessels and carbon capture a non starter on those. Which fuel we use is up for grabs, but it won't be batteries or Uranium that's for sure!
Who has the petrochem skills, transport of chemicals, exosive gasses etc.
There is a transition starting now and Wood have fingers in a lot of those pies. CC(S), hydrogen, the two bases for synfuels., pipelines, high pressures, maybe offshore stuff.
The bottom line is energy costs will go up. Actually pricing in the pollution and our depletion of finite resources (including your big C) will cost money. Existing commercial models must change.
But the transition needs skilled engineers working under tried and tested, robust management systems, tools and controls to do this well and safely.
Who is better placed to do so?
Don't punish those LTHs and sell. Refocus and prosper.
I sold some hoping for a no deal but kept a stake to acknowlwdge the fact they might accept.
Would I buy here. Probably. If they sell, quick buck. If they don't, drop as happy and pals retreat and we see slow recovery from a company Apollo reckoned there was a healthy profit on at 240, so take from that what you will.
I am no expert, just airing my ow reasoning to further the discussion.
Don't gamble money you can't afford or listen to the people on here for investment advice for a billion reasons!
Lol happy. Ironic given the pessimistic comments.
I think you need to look into this a bit more.
Most of those risks don't exist or the EPC contractor is not exposed to. 85% reimbursible work!!! The clients paying for these are taking the risks.
They are slowly building up a library of specs and designs for various scenarios, being paid to along the way.
These may be small beer as they are at feasibility stage...but some will fly on to full EPC and those who already understand the job often go on to secure the next phase.
Pivot away? I don't believe they are turning down work. Just acknowledge the change in direction and positioning well for the transition.
I couldn't agree more. Happy very much looking back on a past car crash and ignoring the perfect tarmac (or whatever the green alternative is for roads) ahead.
Wondering what his average is and where he thinks he will find a safer bet.
Selling for a premium on such low share price historically. Great liquidity, solid backlog, huge growth potential, low risk reimbursible contracts, valuable talent pool, existing customers involved with wind farms and looking to their existing supply chains to transition. A perfect storm.
Suspect some would be chased out of town if it went at this price unless those closer to it knows something that I don't
Hopefully this is the start of the next leg. As pointed out, ISA day tomorrow. Hopefully this is the race for the door starting and we see some sustained rises over next couple of weeks.
GLA should be a good few days ahead :D
IMHO even at 240, WG is still one of those companies. What was the bid pipeline figure again? It was huge over next few years! Where else? Show me another sure bet like this...as I honestly believe it is.
Would be another loss to UK.
No senior or ex managers fancy fronting a buyout?
Happy wants a quick buck to throw on red, so lets put this into an asset managers hands and remove the huge future profits from our reach? Locking in losses for many ex staff and actual long term investors. I say pass......unless of course I am missing something.
Looking at the scale of plans. The bottleneck will be skills. These exact skills.
Supply and demand will force rates and margins up.
I've been considering who the other winners will be and there's potentially quite a few but some still hard to call. A lot will rely on results of various ongoing projects to test the realities of the vatious solutions. So will DAC becoming a thing, will boats use h2 or NH3, how will we heat our homes etc etc