Member Info for Prospero26

Let’s get straight to it.

In 2012, Cove Energy—holding just 8.5% of Mozambique’s offshore Rovuma gas—was acquired for £1.2 billion.

That deal valued their 2.7 TCF net exposure at ~£440 million per TCF—a landmark East African gas transaction.

Now look at Aminex:

• We own 25% of the Ruvuma PSA

• With 3.45 TCF (2C) gross resource—0.86 TCF net to us

• Market cap? ~£40 million

That’s

Let’s get straight to it.

In 2012, Cove Energy—holding just 8.5% of Mozambique’s offshore Rovuma gas—was acquired for £1.2 billion.

That deal valued their 2.7 TCF net exposure at ~£440 million per TCF—a landmark East African gas transaction.

Now look at Aminex:

• We own 25% of the Ruvuma PSA

• With 3.45 TCF (2C) gross resource—0.86 TCF net to us

• Market cap? ~£40 million

That’s

China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau (CPP), a subsidiary of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is the EPC contractor for Ntorya Madimba Pipeline.

China is covering more ground in the East African Oil & Gas market.

In the age of satellites and silicon chips, it’s easy to forget what really moves the world.

Pipelines.

They’re not flashy. They don’t trend. But they underpin everything—power, heat, transport, industry. Quietly, invisibly, they shape geopolitics.

Think about it:

• The Ukraine war? A pipeline story at its heart.

• Europe’s energy panic? A pipeline deficit.

• East Africa’s emerging power base? Not just discoveries—but the lines being laid between them.

Pipelines don’t just transport gas. They transmit trust. Strategy. Control.

And every time a new one is built, a new centre of influence is created—often far from where the headlines point.

Look at the West African Gas Pipeline, connecting Nigeria to Benin, Togo, and Ghana. On paper, just 678km of pipe. In practice? A regional energy revolution. Ghana now uses Nigerian gas to power industry, reduce blackouts, and anchor foreign investment. One pipeline transformed an entire coast.

So when you hear of a 30km line, a local grid extension, or a regional interconnect?

Don’t yawn. Watch. Because those are the invisible wires of the next energy map.

—

“Whoever controls energy, controls entire continents.”

—Vladimir Putin

—Prospero.

Https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/tanzania-unveils-second-largest-cng-station-in-africa-to-drive-clean-energy-shift-5034864

This week, Tanzania made a statement:

The second-largest CNG station in all of Africa is now live—in Dar es Salaam.

A Sh18.9 billion investment. Capacity to refuel 1,200 vehicles a day. Strategically positioned on the DART transit corridor. This isn’t just infrastructure—it’s intent.

It tells us one thing loud and clear:

The era of Tanzanian natural gas has begun.

And here’s the kicker—this station will ultimately be fuelled by the same system Ntorya is set to supply.

Madimba feeds Dar. Ntorya feeds Madimba.

Every CNG bus, every converted car, every shilling spent on this rollout strengthens the demand case for accelerating the pipeline—and bringing Ntorya’s gas online.

The downstream is being built.

The market is forming.

TPDC now needs supply certainty.

That’s where we come in.

Aminex sits on a fully appraised discovery.

Fully funded. Carried. Ready to deliver.

While the market sleeps on this, the infrastructure is rising. The fuse burns shorter.

Gas-to-vehicle is real. Gas-to-power is coming. Gas-to-industry is inevitable.

We’re not early dreamers anymore—we’re early participants in a national shift.

And the upside remains untouched.

“Things done well and with a care, exempt themselves from fear.”

— William Shakespeare, Henry VIII

—Prospero.

Another quiet week. No fireworks. No fanfare. And yet, the fuse continues to burn.

You can feel it—on the board, in the trades, in the tightening spread. The disbelief is loud. But it’s precisely that disbelief that makes this moment so powerful.

Because here’s the truth:

The market rarely rewards those who wait for certainty. It rewards those who recognise value before the crowd sees it.

Right now, Aminex is priced like the pipeline won’t come. Like CH-1 won’t drill. Like NT-2 won’t ever flow.

But here’s the reality:

• The pipeline tender is done.

• TPDC is preparing to award.

• Aminex is fully carried and funded.

• A proven discovery sits ready to deliver gas.

That’s not a dream. That’s a project in motion.

We don’t chase noise. We don’t swing at shadows. We hold our ground with eyes on the prize:

• A signed EPC contract

• The start of the production build-out

• A re-rate that reflects what’s already in place

Until then, let them sleep. Let them post. Let them doubt.

Because when the spark hits, the silence ends.

And those already positioned won’t need to scramble—they’ll simply watch it unfold.

Steady hands. Quiet strength. Real value.

“The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy.”

— Sir John Templeton

—Prospero

As we approach the critical phases of the Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) appraisal well, it’s essential to revisit the fundamental reasons why Aminex (AEX) presents a compelling investment opportunity.

1. Substantial Resource Base with Upside Potential

The recent interpretation of 338 km² of 3D seismic over the Ruvuma PSA has significantly enhanced understanding of the Ntorya gas discovery. A high-confidence area of around 75 km² has been delineated, with a Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) estimate of 3.45 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and an expected recovery factor of 80%.

Beyond that, the wider Mtwara Licence is estimated to hold an unrisked GIIP of 16.4 TCF, and a risked mean GIIP of 6.9 TCF—demonstrating vast potential well beyond Ntorya itself.

2. Strategic Development and Government Support

In September 2024, the Tanzanian government granted a 25-year development licence for the Ntorya field—an extraordinary signal of support and urgency. This licence enables construction of a spur line linking Ntorya to the Madimba gas plant, and ultimately, to the industrial demand hub of Dar es Salaam.

This is a gas project of national importance, with the Tanzanian government actively backing monetisation and infrastructure build-out.

3. Fully Carried Interest Mitigates Financial Risk

Aminex holds a 25% interest in the Ruvuma PSA and is fully carried through the current multi-million dollar work programme, including the CH-1 drill and construction of early infrastructure.

4. Market Dynamics and Valuation Considerations

With ~4.22 billion shares in issue, Aminex’s current market cap is dwarfed by its underlying asset value.

Let’s do some simple maths:

• Assume 2.76 TCF recoverable gas (80% of 3.45 TCF)

• At $1 per thousand cubic feet, that’s a $2.76 billion gross project value

• Aminex’s 25% share = $690 million

• At current FX, that equates to a value of around 13p per share

Even if you apply further discounts for time, execution risk, or project delays, a price well north of 6p is easily justifiable upon successful drilling and confirmation.

5. Near-Term Catalysts and Long-Term Potential

CH-1 is drilling into the heart of the Ntorya structure with modern seismic guidance. Its objectives include confirming additional reservoir intervals and refining resource estimates. The upside from oil shows—already seen in prior wells—adds an intriguing speculative layer.

Beyond CH-1, the wider Mtwara acreage includes numerous large leads and prospects—this is just the beginning of a very large basin story.

Conclusion

Aminex is sitting on a Tier 1 onshore gas discovery in a pro-development jurisdiction, fully carried, aligned with national energy policy, and trading at a fraction of its implied value.

At under 1p, the risk/reward is highly asymmetric. On success, a re-rate to 6p–8p is not only possible—it’s rational.

“There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to

Https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/other/tanzania-shifts-to-local-shilling-in-bid-against-dollar-dominance/ar-AA1EaIeQ

Tanzania’s recent directive to mandate the use of the Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) for all domestic transactions, effectively curbing the use of foreign currencies like the US dollar, has significant implications for companies operating within the country, including Aminex.

Potential Positive Implications for Aminex:

1. Enhanced Local Currency Stability: By promoting the use of TZS, the government aims to stabilize the local currency. A stable TZS can lead to more predictable operational costs for companies like Aminex, especially in areas such as local procurement and staffing.

2. Increased Government Support for Domestic Projects: The move to de-dollarize the economy indicates a push towards strengthening domestic financial systems. This could translate into increased governmental support and incentives for local projects, including energy developments like those undertaken by Aminex.

3. Reduced Currency Exchange Risks: Conducting transactions in a single currency minimizes the risks associated with currency exchange fluctuations. For Aminex, this could mean more straightforward financial planning and budgeting for their Tanzanian operations. 

4. Potential for Favorable Fiscal Policies: As the government seeks to bolster the TZS, there may be a shift towards fiscal policies that favor domestic investment and production. Aminex could benefit from such policies through tax incentives or streamlined regulatory processes.

5. Alignment with National Economic Goals: By operating in TZS, Aminex aligns itself with Tanzania’s broader economic objectives, potentially fostering stronger relationships with government entities and local stakeholders. This alignment can be advantageous when seeking approvals or partnerships.

The long-term benefits for companies like Aminex could be substantial, particularly in terms of operational stability and alignment with national economic strategies.