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Appreciate the nudge, Roger, as always - but I don’t believe a correction is needed on this one.

The condensate figure adopted was already conservative, and reflects the assumed net to Aminex after all licence splits and PSA adjustments.

This isn’t a headline commodity price guess, it’s a grounded, net-to-company figure after TPDC’s share, cost recovery, and full structuring under the PSA.

If the realised price is closer to $70, or higher still, even better. But the beauty of that 1.75p estimate is that it doesn’t rely on top-dollar pricing. It’s built on margin, not hope, and it’s very conservative allowing for a lot of future upside.

And crucially. None of that condensate uplift is included in the $40 million net profit Aminex published.

Which means it’s all upside. :-)

HighYield - I note your concerns about the PSA structure and how little Aminex might actually receive. But the truth is, whilst we might not know the specifics of the PSA, this has already been modelled, published, and priced; not by guesses on a message board, but by Aminex themselves.

Aminex has publicly stated that Ntorya could deliver $40 million per year NET to Aminex at just 140 MMscf/d plateau production. That figure is:

• After TPDC’s profit gas share

• After all cost recovery

• Based on Aminex’s 25% interest in the contractor group

That is not theory or speculation, that is a net figure, directly from the company.

Apply a modest 6× earnings multiple and it implies a company valuation of $240 million, or £177 million — which equates to approximately 4.2p per share.

But that’s just the base case. Now factor in what the company’s model did not yet include:

1. Full Production FFS Ramp to 280 MMscf/d:

Doubles gas output and net income. Valuation rises to approximately 8.4p per share.

2. Condensate Uplift:

With 20 million barrels confirmed in place, even a conservative $5 per barrel net to Aminex adds around $100 million in value — worth an estimated 1.75p per share.

3. Additional Offtakers (beyond 280 MMscf/d):

If an extra 40 MMscf/d (only) is monetised via GTL, fertiliser, or export at higher pricing, it could reasonably add $15–20 million per year in net income to Aminex.

At a 6× multiple, that adds approximately 2.1p to 2.8p per share. Beyond 40 MMscf/d add and the value add here could be significant!

4. CH-1 Resource Upside:

If CH-1 confirms stacked pay and Ntorya’s recoverable gas increases toward 6–7 TCF, long-term net income could rise by another $40–80 million per year — adding 4p to 8p per share on top.

Summary of Upside (All Conservative):

• Base case: 4.2p

• 280 MMscf/d ramp: +4.2p

• Condensate: +1.75p

• Additional offtakers: +2.1p to 2.8p

• CH-1 success: +4p to 8p

That’s a total valuation range of approximately 8.4p to 20.95p per share.

Current share price: 1.4 to 1.5p. Talk about a value disconnect!

And to be absolutely clear, this is how comparables like Savannah Energy, Panoro, and Wentworth are valued.

They all operate under PSAs. They all receive only a portion of profit gas. And yet, their market caps are based on net free cash flow attributable to the company, just like Aminex.

The PSA isn’t the problem. It’s the structure that makes the whole system bankable.

And Aminex?

Fully carried. Zero capex. 25% of the upside. And finally, the infrastructure is moving.

The market can ignore it for now.

But when gas flows, it will be impossible to miss!

Spot on, Sharehead.

People forget how rare it is to see a project of this scale, with this level of national importance, actually de-risked and moving.

Tick by tick, box by box, this thing is quietly locking into place:

• The pipeline is signed, funded, and ready to break ground

• CH-1 is fully budgeted and already in the 2025 JV work programme

• Tanzania’s gas demand is exploding… Kinyerezi III, CNG roll-out, GTL, fertiliser, industrial zones… all chasing molecules

• Aminex is fully carried and 25% exposed to the upside

It’s not a sprint, you’re dead right.

It’s a controlled build-up toward first gas, and a multi-year gas monetisation wave once Ntorya starts feeding the grid and all of the new off takers !

The share price isn’t reflecting the reality, yet.

But it will. And those already loaded won’t need to chase the spike when it comes.

Tick tock. Box by box.

Our time is absolutely coming.

There’s a lot of frustration in this post, and while that’s understandable, let’s set the record straight:

1. “Told gas would be flowing July 2025”

False.

Aminex has always been clear that first gas would follow construction of the pipeline, which was dependent on TPDC awarding the EPC. That contract was signed in July 2025, exactly in line with the Tanzanian government’s budget timeline. There was no misrepresentation — the schedule was conditional, and now the trigger event has occurred.

2. “Pipeline sent out for tender in October 2024, not awarded until July 2025”

Yes — because large-scale national infrastructure takes time. The Mtwara–Dar pipeline (542km) also took many months from tender to award. The Ntorya–Madimba pipeline is now following a similar, and entirely normal, process.

3. “Lack of communication with shareholders”

Aminex has released a huge amount of factual detail in the last 18 months:

• New seismic interpretation

• Updated FDP

• Confirmation of rig selection process and we’ll head ready for shipment

• Development licence achieved

• JV budget and timeline

• EPC confirmation via multiple independent Tanzanian government sources

Silence isn’t deception; it’s focus. The project has now reached execution phase and we can expect a step change in engagement, PR and communication. This will be discussed at the AGM.

4. “Have any shareholders written to the board and got a reply?”

Yes. Many have via Knights. And unlike anonymous forum posters, serious shareholders tend to write with clarity, purpose, and professionalism, and often receive replies. The board’s job isn’t to run a social club. It’s to deliver income.

5. “I have an exit figure and won’t attend the AGM”

That’s your right but I’m not surprised. It takes courage to stand behind your words in an open forum. But let’s not pretend the board failed because your expectations weren’t met in your chosen timeframe.

The facts are:

• Ntorya is 3.45 TCF (P50) confirmed

• Aminex holds 25% fully carried

• Pipeline construction is now funded and mobilising

• First gas is targeted for mid-2026 as is the CH1 drill

• A re-rate is not a matter of belief — it’s a matter of visibility and execution

6. “Missed the boat”

The boat hasn’t even left the dock.

We’re just now entering the monetisation window. This is the very moment serious investors wait for, post-confirmation, pre-production, pre-re-rate. They’re not tracking daily fluctuations in the share price to make their investment decisions.

We don’t dismiss frustration. But we don’t accept revisionism either. If your thesis has changed, sell and walk. But don’t rewrite history on your way out.

Ntorya is now on the launch pad.

We’re not early anymore; but we’re still ahead of the game.

Https://dailynews.co.tz/?p=102343

Kinyerezi gas-powered plant underway to generate 1,000 megawatts

Tanzania is expanding its Kinyerezi gas-fired power complex to 1,000 megawatts, as confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Doto Biteko. The government is ramping up power generation to meet rising demand — and they are doing it with natural gas at the centre of their strategy.

This is not just a power sector announcement.

It’s a direct signal to Ntorya.

Here’s the reality:

• Kinyerezi needs more gas

• Tanzania needs more domestic supply

• TPDC needs Ntorya to deliver, quickly and at scale

Ntorya isn’t one of many options. It is the near-term solution.

Why?

• The field is already discovered and tested

• A 32km pipeline to Madimba is now funded and awarded

• ARA’s 2025 JV budget allocates $41 million to Ntorya

• First production is expected in 2026, ramping from 60 to 280 MMscf/d

• Aminex is fully carried through all of it

The expansion of Kinyerezi proves one thing:

The demand is real. The market is real. The monetisation path is no longer a theory, it’s a government priority.

Ntorya is now central to Tanzania’s power future.

And Aminex, with a 25% stake and no capital burden, is finally positioned to benefit.

Let others obsess over daily fluctuations.

We follow the fundamentals.

Well KW I think we can all see who the keyboard warriors are - coincidentally it will be the names who don’t / can’t show their face(ahem)s at the AGM ;-)

Will you be at the AGM Killerwhale to ask your pressing questions face to face ?

There’s been a lot of noise lately, so let’s stay focused on what actually matters—and what’s now publicly confirmed.

On July 8th, Mwananchi, one of Tanzania’s most widely-read newspapers, published a detailed article quoting TPDC directly.

Here’s what it told us:

• TPDC is investing Sh120 billion (~$45M) to build a 32km gas pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba plant

• Chinese EPC contractors (CPPE & CPTDC) have been awarded the job—this isn’t “expected,” it’s signed and starting

• The pipeline will take 8 months to build and is ready to begin now - no more waiting

• 255 people have already been compensated, environmental approvals are in place, and technical work is complete

• ARA Petroleum is preparing to drill a new well (CH-1) and upgrade NT-1 and NT-2

• TPDC clearly states: “The private sector is leading the drilling work, while TPDC focuses on pipeline construction”

• A new LNG agreement has been signed, targeting first LNG production within 12 months

• Aminex is named directly as a 25% stakeholder in Ntorya

Here’s what this really means:

TPDC now urgently needs Ntorya gas—and they’ve moved to secure it.

Tanzania is scaling up domestic gas access to reduce energy poverty and cut industrial costs. But Madimba isn’t enough. And NT-2 alone can’t supply both the grid and a new LNG program. TPDC’s solution? Build the pipeline now, and rely on ARA to drill CH-1 during construction.

This is why TPDC says the private sector is leading the drilling work. It’s why LNG production is now part of the plan. And it’s why CH-1 can’t be delayed until 2026. To meet volume needs and avoid bottlenecks, it must spud in Q4 2025.

This article isn’t background noise, it’s confirmation. Quiet, clear, and published in plain view.

We’re not waiting for value to appear.

We’re watching it being built.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” – John Maynard Keynes

Excellent work Ufufuo!!

The real signal in the Mwananchi article isn’t just the pipeline, it’s what it quietly reveals about CH-1 timing.

“The private sector is leading the drilling work, while TPDC is focusing on the construction of the pipeline…”

That line matters.

It means CH-1 isn’t something that happens after production starts, it’s part of the current phase. The drilling isn’t waiting for the pipeline. It’s running in parallel, right now.

That aligns with everything we’re seeing:

• CH-1 is funded under the 2025 $41m JV budget

• It’s included in the approved FDP

• It’s directly referenced by TPDC in national press as a key part of the project

• And it’s now tied to two delivery targets:

• Pipeline commissioning (~Q1 2026)

• LNG production within 12 months (by July 2026)

NT-2 alone can’t feed both pipelines and LNG.

CH-1 isn’t speculative anymore. It’s necessary.

So forget the delays of the past. This isn’t a placeholder asset anymore. It’s in motion—and the CH-1 clock is already ticking.

Worth reading again:

“ ARA Petroleum is preparing to drill a new gas well in the Ntorya area”

:-)

With you 100% on that Winalot.

ARA don’t need to take us out, they’ve already got the structure they want. If a buyout ever happens, it’s more likely someone else comes sniffing around once gas starts flowing and the numbers get real. That’s when things change.

And let’s clear up this misconception that “no one wants a minority stake.” That’s just not how it works, not in oil & gas. Anyone with an ounce of industry experience / knowledge knows that.

Cove Energy held just 8.5% of a gas field in Mozambique.

They weren’t operator. They had no control.

But the field was “world-class” (heard that phrase before ;-) ), so Shell and PTTEP fought over it and paid £1.2 billion.

Why? Because you don’t need to control an asset to benefit from it. If the scale’s right and the revenue is there, even a small, non-operating stake can be highly strategic.

Aminex is now carried, funded, undiluted, and holding 25% of a major Tanzanian gas asset that’s entering execution. No capex. No cash calls. Just upside.

You think no one’s going to want a slice of that once it’s in production? Come on…

Absolutely bang on the money Winalot !

The farm-out to ARA wasn’t just good, it was transformational. Aminex went from being cash-strapped and at the mercy of Tanzanian bureaucracy, to being fully funded, fully carried, and partnered with one of the most capable upstream operators in the region.

People often miss just how powerful ARA really are:

• Backed by the Zubair Corporation, a multibillion-dollar Omani powerhouse with deep government, energy, and infrastructure ties

• Operates multiple fields across the Middle East and North Africa, including complex projects in Oman and Kurdistan

• Quietly efficient—zero fanfare, just execution

• Financially unphased by delays—when Tanzania stalled, ARA played the long game and kept moving in the background

• Issued over 34 tenders simultaneously for Ntorya full field development - it’s all in motion as we speak.

And because of the farm-out, we’re 100% carried all the way to production. No dilution. No fundraising. No capex. Just massive upside.

So yes, Aminex may look like the remora. But that remora is holding 25% of a 3.45 TCF gas field, with a pipeline now approved, and a multi-billion dollar shark doing all the heavy lifting.

People will look back on this deal and realise it was one of the best farm-outs ever done by a junior.

Another tired post trying to paint Aminex as a failure; ironically, just as the project finally enters execution. Yawn !!

Let’s deal with the misinformation.

“Gas flowing by July 2025 has failed”

Incorrect. First gas was always conditional on the EPC contract being awarded and construction commencing. That contract has now been awarded. Based on all available guidance, Aminex RNSs, government statements, and the Tanzanian 2025/26 budget, we are now on track for first gas by mid-2026. That is a delay, but it’s not a failure. The difference now is that the project is moving, with execution underway.

“Directors awarding themselves shares”

These are standard LTIP (long-term incentive plan) options, fully disclosed and approved by shareholders. They are service-based, not performance windfalls, and represent a small fraction of the total equity. There’s nothing unusual here, only an attempt to dress up routine governance as scandal.

“No reply to emails, no effort”

The silence isn’t a lack of effort, it’s a sign of focus and the levels of diplomacy required dealing with a foreign government. Aminex is a non-operating partner in a fully funded JV, and operational updates are released through formal market channels. In the last year alone, we’ve seen a new seismic-led FDP, the development licence granted, the pipeline EPC contractor appointed, and the Tanzanian government allocate budget for field execution. ARA are also managing 34 active tender requirements for FFD. You don’t get that level of progress without meaningful work behind the scenes. Just because inboxes are quiet doesn’t mean the project isn’t advancing.

“Orca shows the risks of Tanzania”

Such a lazy comparison. Orca’s dispute with TPDC was over historic pricing on legacy contracts, not new field development. Ntorya is being developed under a modern PSC framework, with the government itself now fast-tracking infrastructure to monetise domestic supply. The pipeline is being built by TPDC, with EPC awarded, and the government has earmarked the field to deliver up to 280 MMscf/d. Risks remain, but the structure and state support here are clear.

And the critical difference: Aminex is fully carried

Aminex is not paying for the seismic, the pipeline, the rig, or the capex to production. ARA Petroleum is investing over $100 million to bring this online, while Aminex retains its 25% interest. In an onshore gas project of this scale, that kind of carried interest is virtually unheard of. It insulates us from risk while preserving full exposure to upside.

So no, it’s not perfect. But it’s real.

The pipeline is happening. The rig is being booked. The well head is ready to ship. The CH-1 well is coming. And this remains one of the most undervalued positions in African gas.

They can keep moaning.

We’ll stay patient. And positioned.

Gas-lady – this is an excellent overview.

Sometimes it takes seeing the full picture laid out like this to truly appreciate how far we’ve come, and how far the market is lagging behind.

We now have a field confirmed at 3.45 TCF (P50), with a best-case scenario of 7.95 TCF (P10, unrisked)—making Ntorya one of the most significant undeveloped onshore gas assets in East Africa. And yet Aminex trades as if none of this exists.

The disconnect between the resource scale, the fully funded development path, and the current valuation is now so striking.

• The pipeline EPC contract has been awarded,

• The Field Development Plan is updated,

• The gas sales agreement is signed,

• And the operator, ARA Petroleum, has initiated 34 live tenders in a short span—an unmistakable sign of accelerated project mobilisation.

Production is planned to ramp from 60 to 280 MMscf/d, with 13 new wells to unlock further upside. New offtakers are lining up. This is not theoretical. It is happening.

This isn’t a story about a small explorer waiting for a farm-out or chasing speculative finds. This is a fully sanctioned, government-backed national gas project, underpinned by world-class volumes, a carry structure, and imminent monetisation.

Yet the market is still looking in the rear-view mirror.

That’s fine. Because once momentum catches up with reality, the re-rate won’t be polite..!!

Great post as always Roger and you’ve absolutely nailed the timing and scale of what’s ahead.

This isn’t just PR potential, this is full-field development finally taking shape on the ground. We’ve now seen 34 separate ARA tenders released across Dar and Mtwara, covering everything from site logistics, field vehicles, porta cabins, safety services and potable water, to media, staffing, and API-certified machining. You don’t drop that kind of procurement all at once unless mobilisation is right around the corner.

The infrastructure requirements alone are massive, and as you said, they’re not leaving that until the last minute. This is about setting the foundation for production and drilling, in parallel. With a fully funded $41m JV budget and everything now signed off, they’ve moved from “planning” to “execution.”

Appreciate your energy as always, eyes peeled now for that schedule update. It could come any day.

Emptyend, very much agree with your read here, and grateful for your insight.

The clarity around parallel activity (pipeline and drilling) is starting to come through now, and it’s encouraging to see you echo what was stated directly by TPDC’s Director General at the official EPC signing.

In case it’s helpful for anyone catching up, here’s the exact quote from Mussa Makame, TPDC DG, published by Mwananchi on 3 July:

“This project will involve pipeline construction (by TPDC), and well drilling (by ARA Petroleum), and the work will be completed within 12 months.”

That doesn’t leave much room for ambiguity; it strongly suggests CH-1 is running in sync with the pipeline window.

Great to see the momentum shifting toward grounded, informed optimism. Appreciate you adding your voice at a key moment.

Nice one Cperkin!

Let’s be clear: this isn’t a hope story anymore.

It’s a construction schedule. It’s an executed contract. And it’s Aminex, fully carried, inside the final phase.

On 3rd July, TPDC awarded the full EPC contract to China Petroleum Pipeline and CPTDC — both arms of Chinese energy heavyweight CNPC. The scope? A c.30km, 14-inch gas pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba plant, capable of carrying 140 MMscfd. That’s not a Phase 1 trickle. That’s huge-scale.

Better still? The article includes an indicative month-by-month construction schedule — laying out a clear 12-month path from July 2025 to first gas by June 2026.

It’s not a formal TPDC release, but it’s grounded in completed pre-work, dry-season timing, and CPP’s proven delivery record. And most importantly, it’s doable.

Let that sink in. The Tanzanian government is backing this. All design, environmental, and landowner compensation work is already complete. That’s why they’re projecting first gas within 12 months, and that’s why we believe it’s realistic.

But that’s not all. On the same day the pipeline was awarded, TPDC signed a second contract, a turnkey modular LNG and distribution deal with Energetech-Tantel.

That’s your second monetisation path.

Initial output: 20–30 MMscfd

Scalable to 100+

And the article makes it clear: Ntorya is highly likely to be the main supply source for this LNG distribution network, a logical move given its scale, location, and current development momentum.

So now we ask: what’s left?

One thing.

CH-1.

Because this pipeline doesn’t just need to be built, it needs to be filled. And NT-2 alone isn’t enough.

CH-1 is essential. It brings:

• A second production well

• A full-field development uplift for the CPR

• Accelerated scale-up toward 140 MMscfd throughput

This is why CH-1 was budgeted into the $41m development programme for 2025. This is why the recent tenders were issued and the well head is ready to ship. And this is why those still “waiting to see” are completely misreading where we are.

We’re not in delay mode. We’re in execution mode.

Because you can only suppress truth for so long.

You can only downplay progress for so long.

And you can only ignore the buildout of a nation’s gas backbone for so long.

The smart money doesn’t wait for gas to flow.

It gets in when the route to monetisation becomes real. That moment has arrived.

GL nailed it — Friday wasn’t a sell-off, it was accumulation in disguise. More bought than sold, and price held tight. Bullish consolidation.

The rerate won’t come with fanfare — it’ll arrive when most are asleep at the wheel.

Will you be there at the AGM to ask the board questions face to face? Would be nice to meet you and chat in person.

There’s a lot of noise around what a 12-month EPC contract actually means. So let’s make it simple—for those without industry experience or pretending not to understand.

An EPC contract is turnkey. That means everything—mobilisation, procurement, trenching, welding, testing, commissioning—happens within the contract period. In this case: 12 months from the effective date. And unless explicitly stated otherwise, the effective date is the date of signature, which is almost always the case in industry.

So when someone says “they’ll start at some indeterminate point later in 2025 and then it’ll take 12 months maybe with some delays, plus you can add on extra months for commissioning,” they’re either lying or very confused… or hoping you are. Because the contract is live. The 12-month clock is already ticking. There is no phantom year of delay. This is the year the work gets done.

And if you’re looking for a real-world comparison regarding timescales, look no further than the biggest gas pipeline ever built in Tanzania:

Mtwara to Dar es Salaam pipeline & Madimba gas plant (TPDC / CNPC, 2013–15)

Construction began in June 2013 and was completed by October 2015—a 542 km pipeline and full processing facility!!

That’s a 28-month delivery for the entire backbone of Tanzania’s gas infrastructure—over 15x longer than Ntorya’s c.30km spur.

So ask yourself: if they could build 542 km of pipeline and an entire plant in just over 2 years back then…

How long do you really think it takes to lay just over 30 km of pipe today and have it fully commissioned and gas flowing, whilst allowing time to mobilise and wiggle room for contingencies?

The answer is already contractual: 12 months from now.

Let the noise swirl. Let them distort timelines. The facts are clear—and the work is underway.

KillerWhale, it’s revealing that you demand precise timelines, yet ignore what’s already known and progressing in plain sight.

The pipeline EPC is signed — that alone marks a transformation from planning to execution. The contract value is fixed, the funding is allocated, and multiple linked tenders are already in motion. Construction in Tanzania doesn’t wait for fantasy hypotheticals — it follows government-backed commitments. We don’t need to guess start dates when mobilisation is already visible through procurement actions and budgets cleared at national level.

You say 2027. The government says 2025. In fact, the Ministry of Energy just signed off on a $41m development budget for Ntorya this year — including CH-1. Aminex stated plainly that ARA would provide a drilling schedule once the EPC was signed. That’s now happened. So the drill date is coming — and it should land either before or at the AGM.

The market is not efficient on small and microcaps. Share price doesn’t lead fundamentals — it lags them. Especially when noise like yours clouds sentiment. But eventually, value wins. Ntorya is now a strategic gas asset with a funded pipeline, an approved development plan, and a fully carried operator with national backing. That’s not a 2027 story. That’s a now story.

You can shout into the wind. Or you can face the facts:

The project has started. The countdown is ticking. And those still clinging to the past will be left behind.