Member Info for Prospero26

Today’s raise isn’t dilution — it’s preparation.

Aminex has just removed its final financial overhang and positioned itself for the execution phase with precision.

Here’s what the RNS really means:

• Fully funded to first gas. The £2.925m raise covers all running costs through to revenue in 2026. No more funding uncertainty.

• Debt-free. Eclipse’s $1.5m loan (plus interest) is being converted to equity. The company owes nothing.

• Cornerstone backing. Eclipse increased its stake to 27.43%. They’re not just talking conviction — they’re showing it.

• Strategic timing. You don’t clean up the balance sheet like this unless you’re preparing to execute. With the pipeline build locked in and the rig tender now entering the award phase, this was the final move before momentum builds.

This is how professional operators position before lift-off — no loose ends, no distractions.

Ntorya’s development is fully funded, fully carried, and now fully aligned between partners.

The rig award, spud, and production build-out will all follow a straight path from here.

The decks are clear. The engines are starting.

For years, Aminex was about potential. Now it’s about execution — and the difference couldn’t be clearer.

• Pipeline signed, sealed, and mobilising. EPC contract awarded to CPP. Groundworks start January, completion targeted July 2026. No ifs, no maybes — it’s locked in.

• FDP resubmitted at a vastly higher plateau. Ntorya is now mapped to deliver 280 MMcfd — more than Tanzania’s entire current production today.

• Rig tendering expedited by PURA. EOIs closed, award window now open. The government itself is screaming urgency for gas — this is not a leisurely process.

• Gas plant and hook-up tenders already out. The project is moving in parallel tracks. Pipeline, processing, drilling — all being advanced together.

And the national context?

• Orca, Tanzania’s biggest current supplier, is in a $1.2 billion legal dispute with the state. Licence renewal is far from guaranteed. Tanzania has 12 months to secure an alternative supply. Ntorya is the only field that can fill that gap.

• The government has gone all-in on gas: CNG trucking, a national plan to double electricity generation capacity (with Kinyerezi III’s gas plant a key part of it), and LNG from Mtwara. Ntorya is the beating heart of that strategy.

• Aminex confirmed at AGM: CH-1 will spud before the pipeline is completed. That is how urgent this drill is.

The market isn’t valuing this yet. At circa 2p, Aminex trades as if nothing is happening. But the reality is that the catalysts are now stacked directly in front of us:

1. Rig contract award

2. Spud date

3. CH-1 drill commencement

4. First results

Each one is a value reset. Revenues are the destination, but the rerate happens on the journey.

This is not the same old Aminex. This is the largest onshore gas development in East Africa, fully carried, government-backed, and moving into execution.

Urgency is the strategy. Ntorya is the solution. !!

Respectfully BP, calling a pre-results take-out the biggest risk misunderstands both incentives and how this JV actually works. ARA already operates and owns 75%; they don’t need to acquire AEX to deliver Ruvuma. Drilling CH-1 and moving to hook-up grows their NAV more cleanly than forcing a bid for the remaining 25%. And if they ever wanted more, it still requires a premium and a shareholder vote, by definition that’s not a “risk”, it’s a potential value event.

AEX’s 25% interest and carry are contractual under the PSA/JOA and the farm-out. Work programmes, cash calls, approvals and default remedies are rule-bound. An operator can’t just “squeeze” a partner outside those agreements; scope changes require JV and regulator consents.

Just look at the paper trail: in recent weeks ARA has issued EOIs covering well hook-up/flowlines, pipeline construction support, fiscal metering skid, HIPPS, and an EPC for a gas-processing facility. You only line up those midstream and facilities packages when you’re preparing to execute and produce, not when you’re trying to stall or shake out a minority.

Layer on Tanzanian oversight… TPDC/PURA sign off the big steps and TPDC has back-in rights at development. The state’s priority is gas on the grid; behaviours that delay first gas cut directly against that. There is no time for messing around here.

The real risks from here are ordinary operational and schedule items; rig award timing, CH-1 spud window, NT-2 test specifics, early facilities awards, each of which narrows uncertainty as it lands. If someone truly wants to bid before results, fine: put a number on the table and let holders vote. Until then, the path of least resistance, and highest value for all parties, is to drill CH-1 and hook up. And that’s what is going to happen!

Prosciutto, let’s deal in facts, not 2018 mood music.

1. 2018 is not 2025.

Back then: no 3D seismic, no development licence, no pipeline EPC, no procurement cascade. Now: 3D acquired and interpreted; Ntorya has a 25-yr development licence; TPDC has awarded and funded the pipeline EPC; and ARA/APT have moved into execution, rig EOI issued, then EOIs for well hook-up/flowlines, HIPPS, fiscal metering, and EPC of a gas processing facility. You don’t tender HIPPS and a processing plant unless you’re building a producing project of national importance!

2. Operator & funding model.

ARA/APT operate and carry Aminex through the current work programme (seismic + CH-1 + associated works). Aminex isn’t writing cheques for the drilling or the plant; G&A aside, the heavy capex sits with the operator. Your “placement imminent” trope ignores the carry and non-operator structure.

3. TPDC alignment, not obstruction.

TPDC has back-in rights, controls the midstream, and has already advanced the pipeline. That is institutional alignment, not a red flag. The state is literally desperate for the gas, hence the pipeline and procurement cadence you’re seeing.

4. Songo Songo is not Ntorya.

Legacy “protected gas” obligations at Songo Songo are not the Ntorya fiscal/contractual set-up. More to the point, declining output at Songo Songo increases the urgency for Ntorya. Using Orca’s historic challenges to predict Aminex’s demise is a category error.

5. “Tanzania is impossible” is lazy.

If the country were unbankable, you wouldn’t see a state-backed pipeline EPC, active PURA/TPDC oversight, or the current tender round. Projects progress when the state needs the molecules; today, it does. Urgently!!

6. On your “collapse/dilution” narrative.

Show the numbers. Aminex is a 25% non-operator with a carry and a national pipeline incoming. There’s no evidence-based case that a market-abuse-style scare placement is required to execute CH-1. If you’ve got a document that contradicts the carry/tender/licence facts, post it.

Bottom line: the milestone chain is intact and accelerating: licence… 3D….pipeline EPC funded…. rig EOI …. hook-up/flowlines/HIPPS/fiscal metering…. processing plant EPC. That is not the language of a project “going nowhere”; it’s the blueprint of a field being commercialised !

If you want to argue otherwise, bring current contracts, RNS extracts, or tender documents—not decade-old quotes and insinuation.

Excellent thought Ufufuo.

The link between NT-2 testing and the processing facility tender is key. Testing NT-2 would provide the data on gas composition (CO2 handling, etc.), and that data directly feeds into the design spec for the processing facility. So the fact ARA are now tendering for a gas plant strongly suggests that work is either complete, underway or will be very soon.

But the bigger picture here is this: you don’t tender for a gas processing facility unless you’re locked into execution. This isn’t speculative. It means: NT-1, NT-2, and CH-1 are all expected to be tied in from the outset. Flowlines, hook-ups, and processing capacity are being sized now to handle initial production. First gas in 2026 is no longer a “maybe”, the infrastructure build is advancing in parallel with the drill..!

Put simply: the EOIs show the midstream being built around the wells, not waiting for them. That’s why this is major news and why CH-1 timing is getting very close.

Excellent Ufufuo !!

Today’s fresh tenders from ARA Petroleum are a huge tell about where Ntorya stands.

These aren’t generic services or exploration fluff. Look at what’s being procured:

Well hook-up & flowline / pipeline construction.. this is the physical tie-in for CH-1 and NT-2.

Fiscal metering skid / station…the kit that measures sales gas volumes. You don’t order this unless you’re preparing to sell gas.

HIPPS (High Integrity Pressure Protection System)… top-end safety equipment, installed when gas is about to flow into a processing system.

EPC of Gas Processing Facility… expansion capacity to handle incoming production.

This is major news because it shows every step from well, flowline, processing, metering is now being contracted in parallel. Add that to:

Pipeline EPC already signed with CPP/CPTDC.

Rig tender process already underway.

Put it together and the message is clear: Ntorya is in execution, not theory.

Yes, the tender wording references 2026, but the fact they’re lining up fiscal metering and HIPPS now screams urgency. Those are the very last steps before gas sales. No operator would tender these today if they weren’t preparing for imminent drilling and tie-in.

CH-1 is coming very, very soon. All the signs point to this being lined up alongside the pipeline build so first gas can flow as early as possible.

The derampers will spin, but the truth is obvious: the pieces are all falling into place, and Ntorya is being built in real time.

It’s important to step back and separate old history from the present reality.

Yes, Aminex is non-operator. That’s exactly what shareholders voted for when they approved the farm-out. The carry means Aminex doesn’t have to fund development — ARA takes on the capex, Aminex retains 25%, and shareholders massively benefit without dilution. This is not a weakness, it’s the great strength of the deal.

Yes, first gas is scheduled for mid-2026. That is not a delay. It’s the published timeline, reconfirmed at the AGM and by TPDC themselves. The EPC contract is signed, mobilisation is underway, and the pipeline is now on a 12-month build schedule. Nothing in the article or tenders changes that.

As for financing, the Board made it clear: around $1.5m remains available from the loan facility, with an annual burn rate of ~$1.5m. That covers the company right through to cash flow in 2026. No placing is required, because the development is funded by the operator. A small additional short term loan might be needed from ARA but it’s nothing to worry about whatsoever.

The reality is this: Aminex today is not the Aminex of old. It holds a 25% interest in the largest onshore gas development in East Africa, fully carried, with government-backed infrastructure, a 25-year development licence, with option to extend by 10 years, and an operator now moving at pace. The Tanzanian state has elevated Ntorya to a project of national importance. That is why EPC contracts are signed, tenders are live, and PURA is directly involved in driving timelines to expedite the drill.

The future is not about extending timelines. It is about executing what is already locked in: pipeline completion in 2026, CH-1 drilling before then, and production ramping to 140 MMscf/d in Phase 1, then to 280 MMscf/d in Phase 2 and beyond!

That is the trajectory. And it is transformative for Aminex.

Per Bullfrog’s find, TPDC have now published an official map showing two routes out of Ntorya:

• Red line → Madimba Gas Plant (the 35km EPC we already know about, due July ’26).

• Green line → Mtwara LNG hub (a separate, dedicated route).

That’s not speculation anymore — it’s on TPDC’s own site.

What does this tell us?

1. Demand certainty. LNG requires scale and long-term offtake. If TPDC are mapping a pipeline to LNG, it’s because the volumes from Ntorya are intended to underpin it.

2. Urgency for CH-1. PURA’s push to expedite rig tendering suddenly makes perfect sense. CH-1 isn’t just about early production — it’s the well that proves up Unit 3 and anchors LNG.

3. Scale. This is no longer just 140 MMscf/d into the national grid. The map shows the pathway to 280 MMscf/d and beyond. The market is still pricing Aminex as if it’s a 2017 NT-2 rerun. It isn’t.

4. Mispricing. We’re trading at ~2p while TPDC are openly showing the LNG-linked expansion route. The disconnect is staggering.

Q1 2026 spud is the keystone. Drill CH-1, prove Unit 3, and suddenly Ntorya shifts from a domestic project into the backbone of Tanzania’s LNG future.

Pipeline maps don’t lie.

Great find Bullfrog !!

Worth remembering the NT-2 sequence:

• ~1.4p just a couple of months before rig contract

• 1.7p on rig contract news

• 2.2p on spud

• 7.9p spike on results

Where are we now? ~2p — basically the NT-2 pre-contract equivalent.

So if history rhymes:

• Rig contract lifts us into the 2.6–2.8p zone

• Spud carries us into 3.5–4p

• And results are the real multiplier, with NT-2 giving a 3.6x from spud price to spike. Apply that to CH-1 and you’re looking at around 12–14p.

And this time the backdrop is far stronger: multi-TCF vs BCF’s, 50 mmscf/d vs 20 mmscf/d, condensate uplift, guaranteed pipeline route, and government pressure to deliver.

A few points worth clearing up:

1. Rig share? The idea ARA would sit back and wait for M&P is contradicted by the facts. PURA explicitly asked for an expedited tender. The EOIs cover full-service provision, not a borrowed slot. That’s the reality.

2. Timeline? NT-2 was drilled three months after rig contract because the rig was parked down the road. True. But for CH-1, we’re not starting from zero either — pipeline build, pad prep and service mobilisation can be running in parallel. The drill is planned alongside those works, not after them. Long lead items are on site and the well head is ready for shipment.

3. Flows & reserves. NT-2 was expected to flow ~20 mmscf/d. CH-1 is guided at ~50 mmscf/d. Add stacked pays (Unit 3) and condensate (~15% uplift), and this isn’t NT-2 redux — it’s a total step-change well.

4. Institutional entry. True, many will wait for results. But retail and smart money front-run drills. With many shares tightly held and the free float thin, the rerate begins long before TD.

That’s why 3.5–4p at spud isn’t ramp — it’s simply consistent with the NT-2 trajectory, scaled to today’s fundamentals.

An interesting comparison.

For NT-2, the share price hit 1.7p on rig contract news and 2.2p at spud.

We’re already well ahead of that trajectory for CH-1. Rig contract news and then spudding news should see us comfortably outperform those NT-2 pre drill levels, especially when you consider:

• The resource base today is orders of magnitude larger (3.45 TCF booked vs hundreds of Bcf back then, with upside to 7.95 TCF).

• CH-1 isn’t just another step-out — it’s a high-impact, stacked pay well with the potential to prove up multi-TCF scale and ~50 MMscfd flow rates.

• This time, results will be tied straight into the pipeline build — no monetisation limbo like before.

Back in 2017, NT-2 peaked at 7.9p, a 3.59x move from spud price.

Apply that same multiple to a conservative estimated 3.5–4.0p CH-1 spud base, and you’re looking at 12.5p–14.4p. And that’s before layering in condensate uplift and institutional interest that simply wasn’t there last time.

Thanks Crusty, yes I mean on CH1 drill results - assuming high success, stacked play (inc Unit 3 discovery) and say 40 to 50 mmscfd flow rates and oil traces..

What’s your target / limit price this time around Crusty?

We’re now targeting a multi TCF uplift to the field, stacked play, 50 mmscfd flow rates and an instant route to market with CH1 !! :-)

Some here are still clinging to the idea that AEX will “drift back” while we wait. Let’s step back and look at the facts:

Selling has been absorbed. Traders took their profits and sold out. Price held around 2p. That’s not weakness — that’s strength in consolidation.

Catalysts are stacked. Pipeline mobilisation is happening this month. PURA has expedited the rig tender. EOIs with a 10-day turnaround show urgency. Regulators don’t force speed unless they need CH-1 drilled early 2026.

The sequence is locked. NT-2 test, CH-1 spud, NT-1 workover — all need to be completed before July 2026 commissioning. That leaves no room for delay. Q1 spud is surely written in the schedule.

Value keeps increasing. Condensate now flagged as additional revenue. Field resource estimates already 35x bigger than last time AEX drilled - as highlighted by Ufufuo. And this time Aminex is carried, fully funded, and with the government pushing hard.

The market has simply not caught up yet. Traders talking about “drifting” are hoping for a miracle re-entry. But the fundamentals have shifted: the drill is now locked on the runway, the pipeline is in motion, and Tanzania is pushing for speed.

The real question isn’t whether we drift back — it’s how long before the market wakes up to what’s just been de-risked.

The next real catalysts are:

• Rig contract

• Confirmed spud date

• NT-2 test

• First visible pipeline mobilisation

None of these are several months or years away. They’re the next steps. And when they land, “drifting back” will be the last thing on anyone’s mind.

Steady hands win this one. The clock is ticking.

Excellent work Ufufuo! What’s your anticipated share price on a high success case for CH1 (ie stacked play and 40 to 50mmscfd flow rates ?

NT-2 testing doesn’t need a rig. The rig is needed for CH-1 and the NT-1 rework — and we’ve been told NT-1 will follow CH-1.

The only way this works, and the only way drilling completes before pipeline hook-up (needed for CPF final specs, as Emptyend rightly pointed out), is if CH-1 spuds in Q1 2026 at the latest. That’s exactly why PURA stepped in to expedite the rig tender.

The latest raft of APT tenders — with just a 10-day response window — screams urgency.

Next stop: rig contract and spud date. Only weeks away.

That’s when the fireworks really begin. What an exciting time to be a shareholder :-) !!

For years, the great “if” hanging over Aminex was whether this project would ever truly move. Would the government back it? Would approvals come? Would CH-1 actually drill?

That debate ended this morning.

PURA has approved the rig tendering strategy.

That’s not noise. That’s not theory. That’s the regulator giving the green light for tenders to go out and for the drilling train to start rolling.

And here’s the reality:

• You don’t tender if you’re not drilling.

• You don’t get PURA approval unless the government is 100% behind it.

• You don’t put timelines in writing unless the project is locked in.

From here, it’s execution. A rig contract is next. Then mobilisation. Then CH-1.

And CH-1 isn’t just another well. The Board now expects it to flow ~50 MMscf/d, not 20. Add condensate (~15% uplift), add stacked pay potential, add Unit 3 upside, and you’re looking at a catalyst of national importance.

The same people who’ve spent years shouting “risk” will soon face the truth: the risk was never Aminex failing. The real risk was being left outside when Ntorya moved into reality.

The approvals are in. The tenders are starting. The wheels are turning.

The train has left the station.

“Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

For years, Aminex was the definition of high-risk speculation. Will the licence be renewed? Will the government back it? Will a partner come in? Will the pipeline ever be built?

Those days are over. One by one, every risk that used to hang over Ntorya has been dismantled:

• Licence secured. No expiry cloud.

• Pipeline EPC signed. Government fully committed.

• Funding locked. ARA carries Aminex all the way to production.

• Resource confirmed. 3.45 TCF Pmean with upside to 7.95 TCF.

• Drill coming. PURA in the final stages, rig contract imminent.

The irony? While doubters still talk risk, the actual picture has flipped. Aminex now has one of the lowest-risk, highest-upside positions in the entire African gas sector. The risks aren’t what they were—the risk now is being on the outside when CH-1 delivers.

And CH-1 isn’t just another well. The Board itself expects it to flow ~50 MMscf/d, not 20. That’s game-changing scale before Ntorya even ramps up. Add condensate (~15% uplift), add stacked pay potential, add a government desperate for gas… and the pieces are aligned for a full re-rate.

Price today? Just under 2p.

Price on drill results confirming stacked pay? That’s when reality bites—and those who only saw “risk” will be scrambling.

The transition is complete. Aminex has gone from risk… to reality.

“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” – Warren Buffett

HY — you’ve now shifted the goalposts, but the problem is the same: your premise doesn’t match the facts.

You’re talking about a “cost recovery period” for opex and capex, but in Phase 1, Aminex has no capex burden. We’re fully carried by ARA Petroleum under the farm-out. That means the $35m you reference is irrelevant to Aminex’s cashflows; we are not paying it back out of revenue.

Opex will indeed be recovered each year, but Ntorya’s opex per unit is minimal, especially at 140+++ MMscf/d. That’s why the $40m net gas revenue figure is essentially near-net profit for us in Phase 1.

Key points you keep overlooking:

• Fully carried on all Phase 1 development capex — no “drop” in revenue from repaying $35m.

• Opex is negligible relative to revenue, especially as the field ramps up and production rates increase.

• Net gas revenue is already after PSA splits, royalties, and TPDC’s share.

• The $40m excludes condensate uplift (~15%), industrial pricing upside, stacked pay from CH-1, and Phase 2 doubling of output to 280 MMscf/d and then further upside scaling.

So the idea that our $40m would “drop sharply” after cost recovery is not just wrong, it ignores the entire structure of the arrangement.

HY — you’ve just exposed a fundamental misunderstanding of upstream economics.

You’re implying that Aminex’s $40m “net gas revenue” is before the PSA split and government take. That’s flat-out wrong — and it shows you either don’t understand the terminology or you’re deliberately trying to mislead.

Net gas revenue is not some casual, undefined term — in this industry it means the revenue after the government’s take, after TPDC’s share, after royalties. It is the figure attributable to the company under the PSA. That’s why Aminex used the word net.

If you were right, “net revenue” would mean gross revenue, which is a contradiction in terms and would mislead shareholders. Aminex has never done that.

Key facts you’ve missed:

AEX is fully carried in Phase 1 — no cost gas recovery reduces our take.

OPEX on Ntorya is negligible relative to revenue.

$40m net is therefore effectively near-profit at 140 MMscf/d.

That figure excludes condensate (~15% uplift), industrial pricing upside, CH-1’s stacked pay potential (up to 7.95 TCF GIIP), and Phase 2’s doubling of output to 280 MMscf/d.

Trying to imply that a further 65–75% haircut comes after net revenue is not only inaccurate; it’s actively misleading to anyone reading this board in good faith, which is no doubt your intention here…